3-month yield explodes 54 bps in seconds, yield curve uninverts recession countdown begins

by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted yield curve, typically indicates imminent recession within 6 months. It has successfully predicted every US …

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People think the yield curve is broken as a recession indicator. People are dumb. The recession kicks off AFTER the curve UNINVERTS. So 2025 is looking bad.

Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024 h/t mark000

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