Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
One of the fastest technical bounces in history leaves bears in the dust… Forward 12-month earnings growth hits 25% as “AI capex” ignores Gulf war… Morgan Stanley: “The market waits for no one once it decides to move”… Median company earnings join double-digit surge; small-caps finally catch a bid… https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/us-stock-market-remaining-bullish-mike-wilson
Late 1999 saw similar volatility expansion with fading volume before the dot com peak rolled over. The erratic movements the S&P 500 is displaying right now are deeply worrisome. When wild, erratic price action appears during extremely elevated valuations exactly as we witnessed in the final stages of the dot-com bubble it has historically been …
President Donald Trump said on Monday he was raising tariffs on U.S. imports of South Korean autos and other goods, blaming the legislature of an ally and a major trading partner for dragging its feet on enacting a deal agreed last year. For South Korea, the decision, which officials in Seoul said caught them by …
Don’t celebrate yet, this boom is built on volatile imports and exports, not sustainable growth. Is the US economy booming? The most recent Atlanta Fed estimate for real US GDP quarterly growth in Q4 2025 is now +5.1%. This is up from the 2.7% forecast seen just last week and far above the 0.9% consensus …
Governor Gavin Newsom makes a shocking announcement. The reason why California went from a surplus to a massive deficit is because of climate change Reporter “Can we explain to Californians how we moved from $100 billion surplus to such a significant deficit in just a matter of… pic.twitter.com/YBk0rbomRh — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) December 25, …
This is the most complex sun spot region we have seen this cycle and in quite a while. It is showing some serious complexity and will be earth facing over the next 12 days. I wouldn't fly. pic.twitter.com/kKtXIabPTW — TheLastWatcher (@USA_Canuck) November 30, 2025 X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE (PERHAPS THE FIRST OF MANY): We were expecting …
JPY moves are a strong sign Margin Calls keep hitting levered traders, collateral is being seized, but this time around clearly not dumped in the open market (maybe not dumped at all). The more banks and brokers are stuffed with illiquid assets the closer we get to a BTFP2.0 https://t.co/iGDIJBFNeA pic.twitter.com/p4c4JzZuef — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) …
$ES_F projected to touch near 5284 by tomorrow close.This is likely a dead cat bounce. pic.twitter.com/xKI5Hpvozg — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 8, 2025 Both $TLT and $GLD sold off today — and that’s a warning sign. ⚠️ Cross-asset correlations are breaking, which often signals instability beneath the surface.Even though $VIX has likely peaked, the next phase …
Now, it’s not just a matter of market cycles. It’s a matter of exposure, risk, and a financial system increasingly tilted toward the reckless pursuit of short-term gains. Those who remain exposed are gambling with their futures—and they might not get a second chance. We’ve hypothesized since last August that the reason we’re seeing such …
In the last two days, $NVDA, a $3 trillion market cap company, swung 6% up and 6% down like a penny stock. What does this tell us? It highlights the speculative nature of hedge funds moving in and out. Just 10 years ago, even a $100B company wouldn’t move more than 2% in either direction. …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
The “pain trade” is back… That means for traders it's a good time to consider smaller position sizing, wider stops and much more discerning execution. – Smaller size to reduce total exposure – Wider stops to account for illiquid, volatile trading conditions – Discerning execution to limit overtrading — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) August 6, …
by Ed Driscoll WITHIN HOURS OF RECEIVING WH LETTER, CNN PUBLISHES BOGUS FACT-CHECK OF HOUSE INQUIRY. CNN fact-checked the House’s impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden on Wednesday just hours after the White House asked news executives to up the scrutiny on Republicans. CNN’s fact-checking team admitted most of the claims were true but downplayed …