Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
1-yr CPI swaps are falling rather noticeably.. pic.twitter.com/BCqoN4fPRh — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 19, 2025 Grok: 1-year CPI swaps are financial contracts betting on future inflation (Consumer Price Index). The rate falling means markets expect lower inflation over the next year—currently around 2.58%, down 3.26% recently. This could signal economic cooling, Fed policy impacts, …
SOFR rate is plunging which means liquidity is flush throughout the system. Ignore all of the other noise around $2000 stimmies and the end of the shutdown. This surge in liquidity alone will push equities and gold higher at least in the short term. https://t.co/tCTGfKPvLE — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 10, 2025 SOFR did drop …
Zelensky calls Trump’s Alaska summit a “dead decision.” Putin demands Ukraine give up annexed land. Trump’s pitch is “some swapping of territories.” Zelensky’s response is clear: “We will not gift our land to the occupier.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/zelensky-rejects-trump-s-suggestion-of-ceding-territory/ar-AA1Kd8ND Trump’s meeting with Putin is set for August 15. There is no Ukraine at the table. No European delegation …
So, inflation hasn't returned to target when policy is "restrictive", but cutting rates will bring it back to target. Explains why 5-year CPI swaps are about to break loose. pic.twitter.com/a0UrLFVwhz — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) July 16, 2025 We elect politicians to do one thing: vote on things to spend money on shit we care …
Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japan’s 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since 1987. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12%, and the 40-year hit an all-time… https://t.co/e2Aa7r63dz pic.twitter.com/9Yxww5ehA2 — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) May 20, 2025 …
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that’s this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.
via BossBlunts1: WHY THE CFTC NO-ACTION LETTER MATTERS It allows UBS to absorb toxic Credit Suisse swaps quietly — no clearing or margin requirements kick in. It shields these legacy exposures from public scrutiny. It suggests the risk is so large or complex, that the CFTC believes enforcing margin and clearing rules now could cause …
UBS: If we report these swaps we inherited from Credit Suisse, the Financial System will collapse. CFTC: Say no more fam, how does 'Swap Relief with no Expiration' sound? pic.twitter.com/Nk2mopkJWw — M.B. (@741trey) April 16, 2025
Swaps — a historic move, Lehmanesque. The beast inside the market is about to break the Fed. A colossal policy reversal is coming. https://t.co/ewp0mUHB2k pic.twitter.com/r8psEJW3fL — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 9, 2025 Literally off the charts, no further comments necessary pic.twitter.com/As70Iob5rv — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 10, 2025 If the Yen breaks, liquidity breaks… …
Milk is milk—until a label convinces you otherwise. That’s the quiet trick behind America’s grocery shelves. The same white liquid flowing through Walmart’s Great Value jug might be identical to what Meadow Gold sells for a dollar more. Both products could come from the same factory, same cows, same trucks, same tanks. The only real …
Bond yields surge despite Fed cuts, exposing weakening control over markets. The 10 year note yield is just causally up another +13 basis points today. That's +85 basis points since the Fed started CUTTING interest rates. And, no one seems to care. Why has this become normal? pic.twitter.com/zoV9TshYmG — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 12, …
10y inflation swaps jumped with the market Make inflation great and middle class poorer again pic.twitter.com/skURIoF9md — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) November 7, 2024 ALERT: Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is very over-extended This also happened in: – 1913– 1929– 1965– 1999 Some of them were strong melt-ups But the market eventually fell With at least a 60% drop …
Citigroup 2024 Recap⚠️ -Subject to FINRA disqualification for aiding and abetting -Failed Stress Test after Fed identified "weakness" in Resolution (Bankruptcy) Plan-Fined for bad books/inability to manage "ongoing risk" Did I mention they have $30 Trillion in Swaps? pic.twitter.com/ej4JQmhQ3X — M.B. (@741trey) July 11, 2024 Stress Test Results (2024): Citigroup completed the Federal Reserve Board’s …
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently approved a final rule amending the capital and financial reporting requirements for Swap Dealers (SDs) and Major Swap Participants (MSPs) . These amendments aim to make it easier for SDs and MSPs to comply with the CFTC’s financial reporting obligations and demonstrate compliance with minimum capital requirements. Here are …
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 13, 2024 ~ According to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), derivatives played a major role in the financial crash of 2007 to 2010 in the United States, the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The FCIC wrote in its final …
by confoundedinterest17 I ain’t never been to Spain, but the US under Biden is like Spain in terms of default risk. Actually, I have to Spain numerous times and love visiting Barcelona. But the US debt fiasco under Biden and Congressional spending sprees has led to … US credit default swap being priced worse than Spain’s …
by robotwizard_9009 Meeting https://www.sec.gov/news/upcoming-events/open-meeeting-060723 Agenda https://www.sec.gov/os/agenda-open-0607023 voted yes!!! huge!!!! ITEM 1: Prohibition Against Fraud, Manipulation, or Deception in Connection with Security-Based Swaps; Prohibition against Undue Influence over Chief Compliance Officers The Commission will consider whether to adopt rules under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”) that are designed to prevent fraud, manipulation, and …