Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This covers everything. Mortgages auto student and corporate debt all ready to blow. 2008 was small compared to what builds now. System too leveraged and one shock ends it. Private credit defaults and commercial real estate stress reports keep growing.
One of the investors who made a fortune betting against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis believes Wall Street may be overlooking another growing risk. This time, the target is private credit. Investor Lee Robinson reportedly generated gains of roughly 900% during the housing collapse by identifying risks that most of the market ignored. …
Something big has changed in the financial system. A market most people barely paid attention to has exploded. Private credit grew from roughly $500 billion in 2020 to around $2 trillion today. Some estimates are even higher depending on what counts. The industry expects it could reach around $4 trillion by 2030. The appeal was …
JPMorgan's Dimon: Obviously, gas prices going up going to hurt people a little bit, but they still have money to spend and they still have jobs… I hear people say they were not imminent threat. These people have been doing something bad for 47 years. These are bad people that… pic.twitter.com/xgNAHo1LHy — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial system that nearly collapsed from subprime has quietly built a larger position in an asset …
#KeyTakeAwaysHistorical data from previous cycles (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020) suggests a consistent sequential breakdown in credit performance. • Record Threshold: Subprime 60-day delinquency at 6.65% is the highest level since data collection began in the early 1990s •… pic.twitter.com/j1nsuZZ9dZ — DeltaSage (@deltasage_ai) January 14, 2026
He’s right, a hard cap just pushes risk into darker corners. When banks pull credit, the people left paying are the ones with no lawyers and no exits. Bill Ackman @BillAckman I think President @realDonaldTrump ’s goal of reducing credit card interest rates is a worthy and important one. My concern about capping rates at …
AI Data Centers are becoming the new Subprime Housing market. Banks are packaging up risky loans and selling them off to other investors. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance Data center debt has exploded due to the AI boom, with $25.4 billion in US secured debt issued in 2025 alone, marking a 112% increase from 2024’s $12 billion. Since …
Repo-pocalypse: Banks Are Quietly Borrowing from the Fed Again Like It’s 2020 The Fed injected $125 billion into the banking system in just five days — its largest short-term cash rescue since the 2020 crisis. Banks are tapping the Fed’s repo window at pandemic-era levels, a signal that liquidity may be thinning faster than expected. …
While everyone clocked out for Friday, On October 31st, another subprime lender, Bayside Credit is no longer originating loans. We updated our clients on the impacts today. Another “isolated” event, for sure. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) November 2, 2025 In October 2025, the financial world was rocked as PrimaLend Capital Partners, a leading subprime auto lender, …
WALL STREET SHOCKER: MOST U.S. STOCK TRADING NOW HAPPENS IN THE SHADOWS — NOT ON EXCHANGES For the first time in history, more than half of U.S. stock trading is happening off the public exchanges — funneled into dark pools and internal trading desks of major Wall Street firms. — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) October 25, …
Here is the list of subprime lenders and related firms that have recently collapsed or filed for bankruptcy: Tricolor – Subprime auto lender and used car retailer; filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in September 2025 amid fraud allegations and triggered major losses for Barclays First Brands – Auto parts supplier with deep ties to subprime …
Institutional knows when to bail. They milked the housing game for all it was worth. Now we get to watch inventories rise as retail is left holding the bag. https://t.co/DWGLugCHZk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 21, 2025 🚨 *IT'S `PARTY LIKE IT'S 1999' IN CREDIT MARKETS: JIM CHANOS — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 22, 2025 …
$BNP crash wasn’t in my bingo card today, does anyone know what’s going on? Have they frozen again 2 funds investing in subprime by any chance? 😬 https://t.co/u1hN78T0zJ pic.twitter.com/Invn2dv6Zm — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 20, 2025 Shares in BNP Paribas fell to a six-month low on Monday after the French bank lost a case linked …
We’re f**ked. 👀👀 https://t.co/ISfWNlDKun — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) October 3, 2025 AI bubble now 17 times bigger than dot-com boom and four times larger than subprime crisis, analyst warns — MarketWatch — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) October 3, 2025 Nice bubble you've got there, Jerome Powell – would be a shame if anything were to happen it …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
AAA bonds rated just two months ago are crashing, with lower tranches nearly worthless. Subprime auto debt tied to fraud is imploding while rating agencies keep pretending nothing is wrong. First blood….. https://t.co/LEFhuiY4JY — Bogachan Ozdemir (@Bogachan_1971) September 11, 2025 🚨Tricolor’s AAA bonds (rated 2 months ago July ’25) just plunged—par to 78¢, lower tranches …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
End the Federal Reserve Comparing Costco Prices for the same items from 1997 vs 2025 – Mac and cheese $7.89 -> $14.84– Cheesecake $10.99 -> $19.99– Chimichangas $8.99 -> $17.99– Butter $5.49 -> $13.49– Hotdogs $5.89 -> $16.49– Ribeye Steak $13.60 -> $55.61 pic.twitter.com/AZxOBf5vhC — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 3, 2025 Read this very …
Full source is here: https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/auto-indices#chinese-auto-indices
Whose ready for the subprime burrito crisis of 2025. byu/tommos inwallstreetbets
HUD is reviving the worst elements of the 2008 housing crash, disguising it as “equitable housing.” 100% LTV loans with 580 credit scores ensure a wave of defaults the moment prices dip. The government isn’t helping buyers—it’s keeping the bubble alive at taxpayer expense. HOLY FUCK, HUD will find first time homebuyer down payment assistance …
by confoundedinterest17 Thank God President Auto Pen is out of office! Inflation? Lower real wage growth? Excessive personal loan growth?? All resulting in historic subprime auto loan delinquency rate of 6.6%. Auto Loan 60+ Day Delinquency Index
by Mike Shedlock As borrowers struggle to keep up with car payments, auto lenders offer payment extensions to keep those loans from going bad. Car Dealership Guy reports Auto Lenders Increasingly Turn to Payment Extensions. Payment Extension Trap 60+ day auto loan delinquencies in the subprime cohort (less credit-worthy borrowers) hit 6.56% in December 2024—the highest …
To start, here's a chart of US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers. Subprime credit card delinquencies have risen 7 percentage points in just ~15 months. These borrowers reflect a WHOPPING ~23% of the consumer credit market, according to Fed data. pic.twitter.com/mNUaNwc0GB — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 2, 2025 Meanwhile, US multi-family …
https://imgur.com/cost-to-buy-significantly-outpacing-cost-to-rent-now-posted-response-to-rental-price-increases-VMXMPkM Income needed to buy a house vs. median income in the US. Subprime bubble looks almost cute in this chart. Ht @nickgerli1 pic.twitter.com/zPfUf2uaDc — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) December 13, 2024 All one needs to know about successful investing in one sophisticated chart 👇 pic.twitter.com/mspgDVgXtJ — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) May 8, 2021 Over …
Commercial real estate bubble is popping as we speak. — YW770 (@yosefwolf770) December 11, 2024 1. Stocks: all-time highs2. Home Prices: all-time highs3. Bitcoin: all-time highs4. National Debt: all-time highs5. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 42 straight months, longest run of high inflation since early 1990s6. Fed: cutting rates again next weekhttps://t.co/R87GogKWA4 pic.twitter.com/iAFkBqmsid — Charlie …
None of what I write in this newsletter is about sowing doubt or “hating,” but a sober evaluation of where we are today and where we may end up on the current path. I believe that the artificial intelligence boom — which would be better described as a generative AI boom — is (as I’ve …
