A hub for independent voices and hard truths
Something big has changed in the financial system. A market most people barely paid attention to has exploded. Private credit grew from roughly $500 billion in 2020 to around $2 trillion today. Some estimates are even higher depending on what …
JPMorgan's Dimon: Obviously, gas prices going up going to hurt people a little bit, but they still have money to spend and they still have jobs… I hear people say they were not imminent threat. These people have been doing …
“The Fed published a research note in March 2025 that almost nobody read. It found that life insurers’ exposure to below-investment-grade debt now exceeds the industry’s exposure to subprime mortgage-backed securities in late 2007. Let that land. The same financial …
#KeyTakeAwaysHistorical data from previous cycles (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020) suggests a consistent sequential breakdown in credit performance. • Record Threshold: Subprime 60-day delinquency at 6.65% is the highest level since data collection began in the early 1990s •… pic.twitter.com/j1nsuZZ9dZ — …
He’s right, a hard cap just pushes risk into darker corners. When banks pull credit, the people left paying are the ones with no lawyers and no exits. Bill Ackman @BillAckman I think President @realDonaldTrump ’s goal of reducing credit …
AI Data Centers are becoming the new Subprime Housing market. Banks are packaging up risky loans and selling them off to other investors. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance Data center debt has exploded due to the AI boom, with $25.4 billion in US …
Repo-pocalypse: Banks Are Quietly Borrowing from the Fed Again Like It’s 2020 The Fed injected $125 billion into the banking system in just five days — its largest short-term cash rescue since the 2020 crisis. Banks are tapping the Fed’s …
While everyone clocked out for Friday, On October 31st, another subprime lender, Bayside Credit is no longer originating loans. We updated our clients on the impacts today. Another “isolated” event, for sure. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) November 2, 2025 In October …
WALL STREET SHOCKER: MOST U.S. STOCK TRADING NOW HAPPENS IN THE SHADOWS — NOT ON EXCHANGES For the first time in history, more than half of U.S. stock trading is happening off the public exchanges — funneled into dark pools …
Here is the list of subprime lenders and related firms that have recently collapsed or filed for bankruptcy: Tricolor – Subprime auto lender and used car retailer; filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in September 2025 amid fraud allegations and triggered …
Institutional knows when to bail. They milked the housing game for all it was worth. Now we get to watch inventories rise as retail is left holding the bag. https://t.co/DWGLugCHZk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 21, 2025 🚨 *IT'S `PARTY …
$BNP crash wasn’t in my bingo card today, does anyone know what’s going on? Have they frozen again 2 funds investing in subprime by any chance? 😬 https://t.co/u1hN78T0zJ pic.twitter.com/Invn2dv6Zm — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 20, 2025 Shares in BNP Paribas …
We’re f**ked. 👀👀 https://t.co/ISfWNlDKun — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) October 3, 2025 AI bubble now 17 times bigger than dot-com boom and four times larger than subprime crisis, analyst warns — MarketWatch — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) October 3, 2025 Nice bubble you've …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) …
AAA bonds rated just two months ago are crashing, with lower tranches nearly worthless. Subprime auto debt tied to fraud is imploding while rating agencies keep pretending nothing is wrong. First blood….. https://t.co/LEFhuiY4JY — Bogachan Ozdemir (@Bogachan_1971) September 11, 2025 …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 …
End the Federal Reserve Comparing Costco Prices for the same items from 1997 vs 2025 – Mac and cheese $7.89 -> $14.84– Cheesecake $10.99 -> $19.99– Chimichangas $8.99 -> $17.99– Butter $5.49 -> $13.49– Hotdogs $5.89 -> $16.49– Ribeye Steak …
Full source is here: https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/auto-indices#chinese-auto-indices
Whose ready for the subprime burrito crisis of 2025. byu/tommos inwallstreetbets
HUD is reviving the worst elements of the 2008 housing crash, disguising it as “equitable housing.” 100% LTV loans with 580 credit scores ensure a wave of defaults the moment prices dip. The government isn’t helping buyers—it’s keeping the bubble …
by confoundedinterest17 Thank God President Auto Pen is out of office! Inflation? Lower real wage growth? Excessive personal loan growth?? All resulting in historic subprime auto loan delinquency rate of 6.6%. Auto Loan 60+ Day Delinquency Index
by Mike Shedlock As borrowers struggle to keep up with car payments, auto lenders offer payment extensions to keep those loans from going bad. Car Dealership Guy reports Auto Lenders Increasingly Turn to Payment Extensions. Payment Extension Trap 60+ day auto …
To start, here's a chart of US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers. Subprime credit card delinquencies have risen 7 percentage points in just ~15 months. These borrowers reflect a WHOPPING ~23% of the consumer credit market, according …
https://imgur.com/cost-to-buy-significantly-outpacing-cost-to-rent-now-posted-response-to-rental-price-increases-VMXMPkM Income needed to buy a house vs. median income in the US. Subprime bubble looks almost cute in this chart. Ht @nickgerli1 pic.twitter.com/zPfUf2uaDc — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) December 13, 2024 All one needs to know about successful investing …
Commercial real estate bubble is popping as we speak. — YW770 (@yosefwolf770) December 11, 2024 1. Stocks: all-time highs2. Home Prices: all-time highs3. Bitcoin: all-time highs4. National Debt: all-time highs5. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 42 straight months, longest run …
None of what I write in this newsletter is about sowing doubt or “hating,” but a sober evaluation of where we are today and where we may end up on the current path. I believe that the artificial intelligence boom …
Tweet: NEWS: Auto loan delinquencies keep climbing Subprime delinquencies (FICO: 580–669) jumped 26 basis points to 5.17% in Aug. Even prime loans (660–719) saw a slight uptick to 0.50% overdue. The reason? Consumers with auto loans originated in the past …
Borrowing in JPY, exchanging for USD (unhedged), buying US equities now they need to buy a rising JPY to cover their new obligations, and to get it they need to sell those equities. h/t _amc_
