Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Confoundedinterest17 Well, the Trump/Biden CNN Presidential debate was a disaster … for Biden. It was the worst debate performance I have even seen. Even worse was the “victory” party where Jill Biden treated President Biden like a little child being potty-trained and shreiked that all Trump does is L:IED. How strange since ALL Biden does is …
Boeing received orders for only four new planes in May — and for the second straight month, none for its best-selling 737 Max, as fallout continues from the blowout of a side panel on a Max during a flight in January. The results released Tuesday compared unfavorably with Europe’s Airbus, which reported orders for 27 …
US government interest payment has virtually been a straight line up since 2020 Despite crossing $1 TRILLION, this debt crisis keeps getting worse pic.twitter.com/YE8v8uLZHG — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 18, 2024 2/ What matters here is not overall US government debt but rather the balance of payments. If a country runs a trade deficit this …
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1791366365678284976
via Mike Shedlock Rents were not falling as reported recently by Apartment List. Nor are Apt List estimates correct now. Let’s discuss what’s really happening and why Truflation is wrong as well. Data courtesy of Apartment List, chart by Mish Please consider the Apartment List National Rent Report for May (April Data). Welcome to the May 2024 …
by confoundedinterest17 The Fed will likely pause rate cuts/increases when The Fed reveals their plans today. Breaking: Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%—a 20-year peak—for a 6th consecutive meeting. With inflation still high, rate cuts seem off the table for now. Rate decision at 2pm Washington time. The Street seems aligned. …
by betsharks0 In this case, the interest rates on 10-year bonds higher than s&p It could suggest that people are becoming less worried about the immediate future compared to the long-term outlook. IN RECESSION Scenario: If the yield curve is normalizing during a recession, might be due to the belief that the worst of the …
China’s insatiable hunger for gold intensifies with a staggering 2,800 tons imported over the past two years, solidifying its status as a global powerhouse in the precious metal market. As the country’s central bank continues its relentless purchasing spree for 17 consecutive months, gold emerges as a coveted asset, outperforming traditional benchmarks like the S&P …
The outlook for small business sales is beginning to decline, historically signaling a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Small Business Optimism Index plummeted to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the third consecutive decline and the 50th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Small biz sales outlook starting to deteriorate… Historically …
by confoundedinterest17 That’s Bidenomics for you! The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.4% MoM (notably worse than the -0.1% MoM expectations), and December’s 0.1% declin e was revised down to a 0.2% decline. The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.10 The biggest negative contributor was …
by confoundedinterest17 Oh Susie QT. The Fed loves you. And The Fed has put a spell on the economy. Where do we sit today? Bank credit growth has been negative for the last 26 weeks. As M2 Money growth has stalled. What will The Fed do? While the FOMC may start the discussions around tapering QT …
via Mike Shedlock: Hertz is dumping EVs but the decline in the price of used Teslas started long before that. $2 Billion in Subsidies, Only 2 EV Stations Opened On January 18, I commented $2 Billion in Subsidies, Only 2 EV Stations Opened, the Holdup is Social Justice In yet another example of Biden incompetence, the …
The Ukrainian President has made an unexpected admission amid the ongoing war with Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky said the combined output of the world’s military-industrial complex is not enough! All of the world’s combined output of shells is not enough to supply Ukraine. They are now firing 1 shell to 10 Russian ones. Too bad seeing …
by confoundedinterest17 Government power is causing inflation and middle class economic repression. For example, US credit card debt is at an all-time high as consumers attempt to cope with inflation under Biden. While inflation RATE is finally cooling off, the LEVEL of inflation remains high. Purchasing power for consumers is down 15% under Vacation Joe. …
by confoundedinterest17 So much for “The Fed killed inflation” narrative. Inflation is still alive and well in housing prices. Particularly in cities like Miami and Detroit? Maybe the Lions winning their division for the first time in 30 years helped! The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census …
via CNBC: Sales of previously owned homes were 4.1% lower in October compared with September, running at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.79 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. It was the slowest sales pace since August 2010. Analysts were expecting a smaller drop, to 3.9 million units. Sales were down …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s terrible economic policies and horrid fiscal managment has put stress on The Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve paid an estimated $76 billion to the Treasury in 2022 while banks’ willingness to lend has plummeted. First, let’s look at Biden’s and The Fed’s Brawndo. One of the key ways central banks absorb liquidity back out of …
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
The Bank of England on Thursday ended a run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after new data showed inflation is now running below expectations. The Bank had been hiking rates consistently since December 2021 in a bid to rein in inflation, taking its main policy rate from 0.1% to a 15-year high of 5.25% …
via Mike Shedlock: If the Fed is taking economic clues from the Services ISM or from energy, it’s not done hiking. Manufacturing is a different story. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Please consider the August 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. Economic activity in the services sector …
The Ukraine military’s “spring” counteroffensive has clearly sputtered, there’s no sign of advancement and the nation’s leadership is being accused of becoming “casualty averse” by because the populace is losing its willingness to send more soldiers into the meat grinder of front lines combat. Meanwhile, the U.S. and NATO continue to pretend the war is …
When politicians are tempted to prosecute their enemies for political reasons, they must fear the same thing happening to them. There are 27 Republican attorneys general in the U.S., compared to 23 Democrats. But you’d hardly know it these days. Today, all the celebrity prosecutors are Democrats. The left has an entire caste of politicians …
Sick. We are not living in normal times. https://twitter.com/_/status/1689657917715177473 h/t Dan
Bidenomics: Small Business Outlook Remains Dismal For 19th Straight Month The Biden White House has been struggling to get the American public to buy into its positive spin on the economy, which it has dubbed Bidenomics. On Tuesday, a survey of small businesses indicated why that is such a hard sell. Small business owners have …
Mitch McConnell doesnt have his problems to seek. Here he is at a public hustings getting booed for 5 mins straight, by his own GOP constituents. Brutal. h/t pathogenalpha
via Mike Shedlock: The manufacturing ISM has been a broken record for nine months. Chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management ® ISM® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the ninth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth according to the Institute for Supply Management. …
True “privilege” is not based on the color of your skin. It’s being raised in a stable family with two parents with a focus on education and a faith in God. That’s the ultimate “privilege.” True “privilege” is not based on the color of your skin. It’s being raised in a stable family with two …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, ‘we’ get the promise of 2 more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position. What I want to talk about this afternoon is–Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks. What are Commercial and Industrial Loans? Commercial and Industrial (C&I) …