Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
President Donald Trump said on Monday he was raising tariffs on U.S. imports of South Korean autos and other goods, blaming the legislature of an ally and a major trading partner for dragging its feet on enacting a deal agreed last year. For South Korea, the decision, which officials in Seoul said caught them by …
A shocking report from a major ratings house just outlined how a forty percent drawdown in AI stocks could hit within the next few months that will wipe out jobs and 401(k)s, freeze credit markets and take the entire economy down with it.
Gold is telling us something right now. https://t.co/glKwsZlOCB — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) January 21, 2026 Cause for pause. Today is like the 1930s, 1940s, 1970s, 2000s. Over the last 100 years, every time Gold outperformed equities (shown against 200wma where the ratio crosses 0.70 here) the S&P 500 had all of its …
BANKS Big move pending. Wont be long. https://t.co/kpvL0qjSyl pic.twitter.com/3RnV60LSbV — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 15, 2026 Talked with a higher up at a bank today He said the level of fraud out there is insane Risk management departments are freaking out And there’s more to come down the road Banks have weak internal controls …
Marc Faber joins Maggie Lake to explain why he believes 2026 is likely to be a difficult year for U.S. markets after decades of asset inflation driven by falling interest rates and policy intervention. He discusses why real-world inflation feels much higher than official yields, why long-term bond markets matter more than central bank promises, …
JUST IN: Jim Cramer says investors should "avoid" buying stocks right now — Kalshi (@Kalshi) January 8, 2026 Wow https://t.co/iw49zc5tqQ — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2026 The U.S. Congress just sold their entire stock holdings so… we're on our own 😏 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 8, 2026 tomorrow could be a massive black swan …
Stocks now outweigh the money supply by three to one, which only works as long as liquidity keeps pretending it’s infinite. When cash tightens even a little, there’s nothing underneath that valuation but hope. That's when people want to be in the world reserve currency but even that has its limits…. And we are about …
2025 treated the market well. What a great year for stocks. S&P 500 +16.9%Dow +13.5%Nasdaq +20.8%Russell 2000 +11.3% The recipe for a great year for #stocks =The AI BoomResilient (higher income) consumersCost cuttingGood supply chain management to minimize tariffs… pic.twitter.com/YLMOg7Sh6m — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 31, 2025 Today, both of our independent measures of inflation, …
There’s nowhere else to park cash with bonds broken, crypto unstable, Japan hiking, and China already heated. Metals aren’t just a trade, they’re the last real safe harbor left before the next wave hits. BofA's contrarian sell signal got triggered Since 2002, 16 sell signals have been followed by a median 2.7% decline in global …
US ADVANCE Q3 GDP +4.3% (CONSENSUS +3.3%) — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 23, 2025 Huge GDP beat.No inflation.Best economy in history.Cut rates to 0️⃣. Too much winning. — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 23, 2025 🇺🇸 Morning Economic Data: *Q3 GDP: Beat 🟢*Q3 Consumer Spending: Beat 🟢*Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴*Core Durable Goods Orders: Miss 🔴 Will …
Wall Street's S&P 500 Targets for 2026 🚨 Nobody is predicting a red year for stocks 🤯 pic.twitter.com/5LOfHmfI9y — Barchart (@Barchart) December 22, 2025 The stock market’s run has been historic: US households now own more equities than real estate as a percentage of their net worth, the 3rd such occurrence over the last 65 …
Source: Goldman SachsH/T: @dailychartbook — Barchart (@Barchart) December 16, 2025
THE THERMODYNAMIC RECKONING Oracle just lost $35 billion in market cap. In 48 hours. Wall Street thinks this is an earnings miss. It is not. This is the first domino. What happened on December 11 was not a revenue shortfall. It was a confession. Oracle revealed 57 percent of its $523 billion backlog depends on …
They’re LYING to you, rate cuts are actually BAD… Well, in the short term they are. The biggest crashes in history didn’t happen before the Fed pivot. They happened after it. 1970s? Fed cuts → stocks nuked. 2000 dot-com? Fed cuts → -51%. 2008? Fed cuts → -58%. Even the early 2020s saw the same …
via Jesse Felder Brij Khurana writes that corporate profits, “have been inflated by massive government deficits, ambitious business investment, and debt-funded shareholder returns. If fiscal stimulus subsides and household savings rates rise—whether because of AI or any other reason—the Kalecki-Levy equation suggests the bubble that has sustained U.S. corporate profits since 2008 might burst.” STAT In …
Appetite for risk is incredibly strong: Options trading volumes in loss-making Russell 2000 stocks have risen to ~6 million contracts per day, an all-time high. Volumes have more than doubled since April and surpassed the previous record set during the 2021 meme-stock mania. By comparison, options activity in profitable stocks is only 33% as large. …
$VIX down -44% in 5 days.Be fearful when others are greedy. — kpak (@kpak82) November 28, 2025 25% of the ~$3.2 trillion ($800bln) being financed via SOFR has been borrowed above the Fed’s upper bound …for almost three weeks now https://t.co/UisS8uif0j pic.twitter.com/nK5ZyNx9SI — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) November 28, 2025 SOFR has now spent two …
This was all pre planned. Government printed dollars. Lowered rates to 0%. You thought you were getting free monies to buy LED TV! In reality you were paying for this with your future and the elites were capturing every single asset — from stocks to houses to farm land! https://t.co/eprXRpb8jj — tic toc (@TicTocTick) November …
Here is a brief overview of multiple signs that the economy is already in recession. by David Haggith While seven stocks have glowed brightly this year, keeping the stock exchange high, Main Street is a mess, covered over with garbage statistics. Economists and politicians like to stick to the one big number to indicate how …
The Japanese carry trade has gone into reverse so it’s inevitable. Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a …
Crypto is primarily a speculative risk asset. Do not conflate the two together. This isn’t a crash, investors are taking profit so therefore it is an overdue correction. — J-Red aboi da kid (@Unpopularrtruth) November 20, 2025 JUST IN: Tom Lee’s Bitmine is sitting on $3.5 BILLION in unrealized losses on $ETH. And we haven't …
“THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you. Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. …
In the sewer business, they say a good flush beats a full house. This one isn’t a good flush. It’s the other kind that fills your house with a stinking mess you have to live with. by David Haggith Adam Taggart, in his interview below with Freightwaves’ Craig Fuller, says Fuller’s take on the economy sounds stagflationary, …
What is a Hindenburg Omen? Why does Ed Dowd think that a deflationary event has already begun? One which will shake the world?
“In October alone, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings — the first step in the process, when a lender warns a borrower they’re in default. That’s up three percent from September and 19 percent from a year ago… lenders formally started foreclosure proceedings on 25,129 homes in October — up six percent from last month and …
Michael Burry just closed his fund, top signal. pic.twitter.com/8O1Al5TPRe — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 13, 2025 BREAKING 🚨: Michael Burry Michael Burry to close down his hedge fund by year end after acknowledging he doesn't understand today's market pic.twitter.com/vrCIRNf5xH — Barchart (@Barchart) November 13, 2025 Happy Thursday. pic.twitter.com/g1YXL7Jc2l — Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) November 13, 2025 Since …
U.S. stocks are pumping hard Bitcoin is dumping hard Fuck this crypto shit man !! pic.twitter.com/3OSZNf5Weh — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) November 11, 2025 MicroStrategy ($MSTR) traded at a notable premium to its modified NAV (mNAV) relative to Bitcoin ($BTC). Because $MSTR also issued debt—effectively paying ~7–10% to lever up its Bitcoin exposure—the company’s equity became …
And it was accompanied by a stock short for the record books. The ground is cracking beneath stocks as the economy, itself, gives way with major recession signs. by David Haggith Stocks are cracking up. There are numerous stories today about falling stocks, especially AI stocks, and a badly failing economy. I’m going to hold …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice? Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from “can’t lose” confidence …
