Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael We are watching a slow-motion train wreck play out right in front of our eyes, and nobody can stop it. Every single day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, commercial oil inventories will get even lower and national strategic oil reserves will get even lower. Right now the global economy is using more …
Pressure is starting to show up in places people do not usually look first, and the numbers behind it suggest households and small businesses are both getting pulled tighter at the same time. Middle class Americans are selling plasma to make ends meet while small businesses are dealing with rising cost pressures tied to tariffs …
Crash!!!! Circuit breakers Brace!!!! pic.twitter.com/HGFTfuExNZ — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 3, 2026 BREAKING: Spain and Italy share markets down by 5%, Germany down 4%, while UK and France markets down 3%. — The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) March 3, 2026 🚨MASSIVE CRASH IN KOREAN MARKET. 🇰🇷 South Korea’s stock market crashed 7.23% on reopening, wiping …
Electricity prices are surging, voters are growing angry, and the artificial intelligence industry’s data centers are increasingly a target for blame with U.S. mid-term elections on the horizon. Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The …
The FOMO lemmings drove up prices for everyone, pricing out the prudent & financially responsible from decent housing. Let them be a cautionary tale for a generation as far as I’m concerned. h/t Boo_Randy_II
2/ Japan’s 30-year bond yield just hit 3.14%, an all-time high. The 40-year? A record 3.6%. Why? A failed bond auction—no one wanted the debt. That’s dangerous. https://t.co/uHGaZh41mF — Neil McCoy-Ward (@NeilMcCoyWard) May 28, 2025 4/ Meanwhile, U.S. 30-year yields breached 5% last week. That pushes up mortgage rates, car loans, and credit costs. And …
This credit default swap is like an insurance against the risk of US Debt default, implying that the market is pricing in higher risk for the US government to default on its debt. h/t kmmeow1
Cattle lured in. My BS-indicator has moved into RED 😉 The amount of wise guys calling for Bull Market to continue for 12 months or SP500 to continue to 7000 or higher is spiking! Top is closing in! Not here yet – but soon😉 This is SO MUCH 2022 – just opposite end of the …
The real issue is oil prices in Yen, not just the Yen itself. The situation is far from over. — Ashok Mishra ⭐ 🇮🇳 (@ashok0220) August 26, 2024
1) This Florida housing downturn keeps getting more intense by the day. With a combination of investors, builders, and inflation-burdened homeowners off-loading houses at a historically fast clip. This increase in listings is now corresponding with a slowdown in demand, which is… — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 22, 2024 3) Something interesting about Florida is …
A financial tool that millions of Americans rely on, known as a credit score, could be hiding a sinister secret about your brain health, experts warn. A new study by the New York Federal Reserve and Georgetown University has uncovered a disturbing link between declining credit scores and the onset of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD). The research, …
Egg prices are soaring again and increased 8.4% in February from January, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Tuesday. Why it matters: Elevated prices ahead of Easter are giving consumers flashbacks to the sky-high prices of 2023, which peaked at $4.82 for a dozen in January. February 2024 prices dropped 17% from a year earlier, the CPI, a key …
Inflation coming back like it was 2023. Shipping costs are rising fast amid geopolitical tensions pic.twitter.com/RI2bzGFKbo — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) February 17, 2024 h/t Tonight We Ride!
by Michael According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal …
Over the past two weeks, the owner of a hip wine bar in Buenos Aires saw the price of beef soar 73 percent, while the zucchini he puts in salads rose 140 percent. An Uber driver paid 60 percent more to fill her tank. And a father said he spent twice as much on diapers …
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm TLDRS Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking! Credit Card delinquencies up! All consumer loan deliquesces are up! Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks is up! https://dismal-jellyfish.com/banks-alert-delinquency-rates-surge/ h/t Dismal-Jellyfish
by j_stars Acceleration in junk yields points materially higher. Yields spiking higher across the board are going to cause hedge funds and more regional banks to blow up. Not a recipe for general equities.
by TBSchemer It means IT’S SHOWTIME! So you know how the Fed has been hiking interest rates to suck liquidity out of the system and reduce inflation, right? The mechanism of this is that investors see the high interest rates, and they move their money into bonds, while avoiding taking on new debt, avoiding risky assets …
Gas prices could jump as much as $1 in the coming days, according to recent prediction Sources tell fuel app GasBuddy that a refinery outage could be to blame. Author: David Griswold September 8, 2023 CHICAGO — Minnesota motorists could see a massive spike in prices at the pump in the coming days, according to …
by j_stars Gold made a new all time high in Japan today at 284,673 JPY/oz. pic.twitter.com/VwZqNJbBkW — Jan Nieuwenhuijs (@JanGold_) September 4, 2023
