slok:

Apollo’s Slok just dropped a bomb: The Trade Reset Recession is coming and nobody’s pricing it in

1/ Container ships from China to US down 30%+ already. This isn't a far-off risk – it's happening NOW and will ripple through supply chains within weeks Container departures literally falling off a cliff since tariffs announced pic.twitter.com/Wb6GQz0iUP — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) April 27, 2025 3/ Markets missing the biggest risk: S&P 500 revenue from China …

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Now I am worried: “The probability of a US recession materializing in 2025 is 0%, according to a Monday note from Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo.”

pic.twitter.com/AjAiL7vFzA — Saw Chuck (@Saw_Chuck2023) December 25, 2024 RCH Fed: manufacturing contracts again in Dec w/ employment, new orders, and shipments all falling; although firms expect significantly better conditions 6 months from now, the sector is currently still hemorrhaging: pic.twitter.com/WQrxj4k76c — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 26, 2024 🚨🇺🇸BIDEN CAUGHT LYING ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET…AGAIN …

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Apollo Sløk questions AI’s impact on outsourcing, noting stable unemployment in the Philippines and India.

"If AI is having such a profound impact on call centers, telemarketing, and other business process outsourcing jobs, then unemployment in the Philippines and India should be moving higher. But that is not what the data is showing." – Apollo Sløk pic.twitter.com/zkPGelkn6B — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 4, 2024

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok: “Since SVB collapsed, the Fed has been adding liquidity, and the S&P 500 is up more than 10%. The high correlation between Fed net QE and the S&P 500 seen in the chart below suggests that Fed liquidity is a crucial driver of the stock market,”

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-incredible-chart-shows-the-close-relationship-between-the-s-p-500-and-fed-liquidity-166542a7 Earnings, schmearnings. Is what really matters just liquidity? This incredible chart, from Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok, shows the close relationship between S&P 500 SPX, -0.37% performance and net Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) since the pandemic began. Here, Fed QE is defined as the Fed’s total assets minus the balance of the …

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