Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Let’s discuss the latest e-commerce sales numbers. Please consider the E-Commerce Retail Sales Report for the second quarter of 2025. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, …
via Reddit: Yes, I know this is obvious to most but there’s still enough questions about these sorts of services (and wanting to invest because they think diversifying away from stocks is good or they are attracted to the novelty of asset classes previously unavailable to them with “invest like the 1%” tag lines, etc) …
“ Space can surprise even those who spend their lives studying it. People often think of our solar system as just a few planets and a bunch of empty space. Yet new observations suggest we have been living inside a hot, less dense region, and that there may even be a strange cosmic channel connecting …
Heartbreaking. It’s a reminder that AI can feel real, but it’s not a substitute for human connection. — Jamal Amin (@JamalibnAmin) August 16, 2025 A cognitively impaired New Jersey senior died while trying to meet a flirtatious AI chatbot that he believed was a real woman living in the Big Apple — despite pleas from …
James Comey just posted an emotional 5-minute video tribute to Taylor Swift. This man was the director of the FBI.pic.twitter.com/uBsJZgh2qM — The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) August 17, 2025
If you were sitting in Powell’s chair right now, the choices are all bad. Rate cuts with inflation heating back up would be reckless, but blindly hiking or extending QT into a slowing economy risks detonating credit markets. The Fed is boxed in because both sides of the balance sheet are broken: short-term liquidity is …
Introduced in 2025, it bans ghost listings, forces salary transparency, and limits ads to 90 days. “The TJAAA establishes clear, enforceable standards to ensure that job listings represent genuine hiring intent.” https://www.issuewire.com/new-federal-legislation-proposed-to-end-ghost-jobs-and-restore-integrity-to-the-hiring-process-1836081656082620 The bite: Fines up to $200K per fake listing Must disclose salary, start date, visa status, AI screening use, and repost history $5,000 …
The Fed is back in the bond market. No cameras. No policy announcement. Just $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries scooped up in a single week. In May 2025, the Fed quietly bought $43.6 billion through its System Open Market Account (SOMA) — including $8.8 billion in 30-year bonds on May 8 https://dailyhodl.com/2025/05/24/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/ The official term …
“My view is that buying and holding real estate is not an effective investment strategy in our current economic environment, for a few reasons. 1) Real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is inflation sensitive, so given our current circumstances it is likely to go down in real terms 2) It is a …
I’ve got bad news. The AI cycle is over—for now. I’ve been an unapologetic AI maximalist since the first time I tricked GPT-4 into writing a working Python back-test for a volatility strategy back in early 2023. I’m still convinced it will take the wider economy years—maybe decades—to fully digest the productivity shock we’ve already …
Texas metros see massive home inventory surge while southeast FHA mortgages flash warning signs. Housing foreclosures and housing distress remain low—but FHA mortgages in the Southeast are flashing a little yellow ResiClub PRO members can read my report here: https://t.co/OclST19mue pic.twitter.com/Nq4xEj1ZNM — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 10, 2025 Inventory of Homes for Sale Balloons in …
Goldman Sachs says 55 cities will see home prices fall. That’s 15% of the 381 metros they track. But they also say 39% will decline. So why spotlight the softest wound? “Goldman Sachs expects home prices to fall in 55 of the 381 metropolitan statistical areas it tracks, or about 15%.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-prices-forecast-goldman-sachs-housing-market/ “While we think …
The student loan debt crisis is exploding in 2025! In today’s deep-dive livestream, we expose the shocking truth behind a $40,922 student loan turning into a staggering $118,305 repayment nightmare. This isn’t just one story — millions of Americans are facing crippling interest rates, broken promises, and government inaction. We break down the latest market …
South Korea has made it clear: most of the $350 billion it pledged in U.S. investment will be loans and guarantees, not equity. Direct investment makes up less than 5 % of the total fund. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-04/korea-expects-less-than-5-of-350-billion-us-fund-as-investment Japan’s negotiator Akazawa added fuel to the skepticism, saying trade agreements with both the U.S. and EU are still not formalized, …
China’s real estate crash spirals: Builders fail, buyers flee, cities hollow out. Turns out concrete isn’t a liquid asset after all. “New home prices in 70 major cities fell for a 24th straight month in May, extending the longest losing streak since at least 2011” https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-home-prices-dip-may-extending-two-year-stagnation-2025-06-16 “The amount of unsold residential floor space stood at …
by Michael If you have applied for hundreds of jobs and still find yourself out of work, you are certainly not alone. In many industries, it is absolutely brutal out there right now. U.S. employers have been laying off hundreds of thousands of workers in 2025, and there is immense competition for any good jobs that do happen …
🇨🇳 Meanwhile in China Dancers using Tesla Coil Rods put on a show. Yes this is real. pic.twitter.com/9iX0q7KlD5 — Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) August 3, 2025
Jeanine Pirro was confirmed as the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia with a 50 to 45 Senate vote on August 2, 2025.https://apnews.com/article/5a2c7c087e67fde1f8ac8ae4aa25d4e1 She has many years of experience as a lawyer and crime reporter, giving her a good understanding of how to fight crime.https://www.nypost.com/2025/08/02/jeanine-pirro-confirmed-as-dc-us-attorney-after-tense-senate-vote/ Attorney General Pam Bondi said, “Jeanine is a warrior …
Senator Chuck Schumer didn’t hold back. He said we’ve “never in our lifetimes” seen a president so openly use power to make himself and his friends rich. That’s a strong statement, but also a revealing one. It’s not just aimed at Trump. It shows Democrats are feeling the pressure too. Voters are sick of the …
Booker’s public blowup isn’t just political theater; it signals a deeper breakdown in Democratic strategy. Fixating on Trump as the singular villain shows a party scrambling to define itself without a clear positive agenda. This obsession blinds them to growing voter fatigue and shifting priorities, especially among suburban and independent voters who want solutions, not …
The whole global financial system leans on a promise backed by math that doesn’t add up. Pretending these bonds are safe while ignoring the ballooning off-balance-sheet debts is the biggest confidence trick ever sold. Eventually, reality crashes the party. $1.4B Fartcoin is what you get when the "risk free" asset underpinning the entire banking & …
Retirement plans get cashed out, fast food becomes unaffordable, and “feeling financially free” now means half a million a year or bust. The working class is melting down in real time, but don’t worry, the White House says the economy is strong. People are so fucking broke Last year, a record 4.8% of workers in …
Former government official Catherine Austin Fitts has alleged that Jeffrey Epstein was involved not only in sex-based blackmail operations but also in laundering massive sums of missing government funds—specifically $21 trillion from the Department of Defense and HUD. Fitts suggests that these funds may have been funneled through Epstein, with connections to Israeli intelligence (Mossad), …
Nearly 90% of economists doubt U.S. economic data. At the heart of every economic conversation, from rate cuts to retiree checks is one number: The Consumer Price Index (CPI). It tracks inflation by measuring how much prices change over time for things like rent, food, clothes, and transportation. It sounds simple but it’s not. — …
Prices climbed faster than paychecks again this quarter. Beef just broke $6.12. Social Security faces a mandatory 24% slash starting January 2033. And 40% of U.S. workers now earn less than the inflation-adjusted cost of living. Indeed’s real-pay tracker posted a July spike. 43% of Americans are losing ground on purchasing power. March’s level was …
The cracks are showing. DR Horton booked $1.02 billion in net income for Q3 2025, a sharp drop from $1.35 billion a year ago. Revenue slid 7% to $9.2 billion. Closings fell to 23,160. The backlog shrank 16%. Order value dropped 19%. Gross margin slipped to 22.7%. Incentives increased. Liquidity held steady at $5.5 billion. …
Where there's smoke, there's fire. pic.twitter.com/Z0pR2xNLid — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 19, 2025
