Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The real economy is definitely not in good shape! Almost every time this ratio has crossed below the 4-year moving average, it has signaled either an ongoing recession or an impending one. Will be different now? pic.twitter.com/hu7259T8XN — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) October 23, 2024 Said another way, S&P 500 SP500earnings estimates for 2025 have risen …
‼️S&P 500 IS AS EXPENSIVE AS DURING THE DOT-COM BUBBLE‼️ 90% of the market sectors have their P/E ratios in the top 25% historically. This is in line with levels seen during the Dot-Com Bubble and before the 2022 bear market. Long-term expected returns are not promising now. pic.twitter.com/8ECIeiuVR4 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September …
China Maintains Yuan Defense After Currency Nears Red Line (Bloomberg) — China stuck to a pattern of keeping yuan weakness contained as pressure from a resilient dollar and poor investor sentiment pushes it toward a policy red line. The People’s Bank of China kept its daily reference rate for the managed currency broadly unchanged, implying …
The rising debt/GDP ratios in both Europe and the US suggest an impending era of financial repression, similar to what Japan has experienced. Axios notes that it would require substantial measures, equivalent to $2,400 per American per year, in either spending cuts or tax increases to stabilize the national debt. Meanwhile, gold is reaching new …
Home price-to-income ratios are skyrocketing in the world's major cities. In Shanghai, home price-to-income ratios just crossed 50x. China now has 5 cities with home price-to-income ratios above 30x. Even in New York City, home price-to-income ratios just hit 10x. Living in… pic.twitter.com/C3rd30IF79 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2023