Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael We knew that this wasn’t over. The ill-fated “Memorandum of Understanding” may have delayed the inevitable, but now the ceasefire is dead and fighting is raging throughout the Middle East all over again. Sadly, we shall soon see just how far both sides are willing to escalate matters. In my opinion, we are …
Michael Burry warns the U.S. stock market could face a crash worse than the 2000 dot‑com bubble. The veteran investor says several tough years may be ahead for investors. He points to the surge in AI and tech stock valuations, combined with the dominance of passive investing, as key risks. Burry, known for predicting the …
ortugal’s minority government lost a confidence vote in parliament Tuesday, forcing its resignation and bringing the European Union country’s third general election in three years. The government’s fall marks the worst spell of political instability since Portugal adopted a democratic system more than 50 years ago in the wake of the 1974 Carnation Revolution, which …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …
Families will today be urged to stockpile three days’ worth of food and water to help build national ‘resilience’. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will advise people to make contingency plans for dealing with potential emergencies such as prolonged power cuts, cyber attacks and floods. Last year, Mr Dowden said people should stock up on …
Ukraine cannot be accepted into NATO – for Ukraine’s own sake,” Foreign Policy The expansion of NATO through the accession of Ukraine will prolong the armed conflict and further aggravate the situation in Kiev . It is unwise to introduce Ukraine into the military bloc, either… pic.twitter.com/GQkTLAUsxu — Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) March 6, 2024 The …
Top U.S. defense firm General Dynamics is planning to open weapons plant in Ukraine – an investment that implies taxpayers will continue to dole out dollars to support war that has no end in sight General Dynamics, based in Renton, Virginia, wants to open an artillery factory in western Ukraine producing 155-millimeter shells within six …
The current VIX level of 13 reflects a hesitancy among investors to take a bearish stance on the prominent Big 7 stocks. Global corporate buybacks, on a downward trajectory since 2019 despite heightened volatility in inflation and interest rates, may indicate a erosion of savings. As downgrades to U.S. earnings estimates persist for nine consecutive …
Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …
via brownstone.org: Here is a large caliber smoking gun. The BEA series for real personal income less transfer payments is a pretty serviceable proxy for private market output before the impact of Washington stimmies and distortions caused by transfer payments and government borrowing. After all, earned income – wages, salaries, bonuses, profits, interest and dividends …
