Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to …

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US Housing Starts Surge Most Since 2016, Exceed All Estimates (The Pause That Refreshes As Fed Dot Plots Suggest Return Of Zorp [Zero Outrageous Rate Policies!)

by confoundedinterest17 Well, not really unexpected since the housing sentiment index for home builders was above 50 yesterday. But with The Fed pausing rate hikes, housing starts are soaring! US housing starts unexpectedly surged in May by the most since …

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Not Always Sunny! Philly Fed Business Conditions Declines To -16.6 In June (Powell Aka Green Man Faces Tricky Task of Explaining Rate Pause in Congress)

by confoundedinterest17 As I discussed yesterday, the Misey Index under Biden remains elevated compared to that of Trump pre-Covid despite massive financial stimulus from Green Man (The Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell). Now we have more evidence of an impending recession …

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Bidenville! US Inflation Cools To 2x Target In May, 26 Straight Months Of Negative Weekly Wage Growth (Core Inflation Still At 5.3% YoY, Yet Fed Will Pause Rate Hikes)

by confoundedinterest17 Okay, Joe Biden was generally regarded as the dumbest member of the US Senate and mean-spirited (I won’t repeat podcaster Joe Rogan’s opinion of Biden). Now we realize how brazenly corrupt Biden is (taking bribes from China and …

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Fed likely to pause tightening despite being half way home

by confoundedinterest17 Don’t kid yourself. The talking heads at The Federal Reserve (more like Feral Reserve) are only about halfway there in terms of rate hikes. There is still over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the economy. The Taylor Rule implies a target rate of 10.12% while the current target rate is just over half …

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