Fed Will Likely Pause For 6th Straight Meeting (Mortgage Rates Are Already Up 161% Under Biden, MBS Returns Terrible!)

by confoundedinterest17 The Fed will likely pause rate cuts/increases when The Fed reveals their plans today. Breaking: Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%—a 20-year peak—for a 6th consecutive meeting. With inflation still high, rate cuts seem off the table for now. Rate decision at 2pm Washington time. The Street seems aligned. …

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Court denies Trump’s bid to pause $454 million penalty. However, judge lifts some sanctions.

A New York appellate judge on Wednesday refused to halt collection of Donald Trump’s $454 million civil fraud penalty while he appeals, rejecting the former president’s request that he be allowed to post a bond covering just a fraction of what he owes. Judge Anil Singh of the state’s mid-level appeals court ruled that Trump …

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Negotiators in Paris Press On in Bid to Pause Israel-Hamas Fighting

between Israel and Hamas in a deal to pause the fighting in Gaza and free Israeli hostages, Egyptian officials said, after a crucial meeting in Paris helped revive stalled negotiations. The mediators’ main challenge is to produce an agreement convincing Hamas that a permanent cease-fire is eventually possible at the end of a humanitarian pause, …

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Yet Another Major Car Manufacturer Hits Pause on EV Development Electric Vehicle; Start-Ups Are Running Out Funds

via outkick: The demand from the Biden administration and Gavin Newsom to make every car an EV in the near future suffered another devastating blow on Tuesday. In October, Ford announced it was pulling the plug on a massive, $12 billion investment in electric car design and production. That came after the company announced massive …

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Fear the first rate cut, not the pause.

by mrmrmrj I don’t know why people have such trouble understanding this. When interest rates in the bond market are at/near peak levels – or perceived peak levels, for the next few years – that’s when big money rushes into bonds like a stampede. The US Treasury is still the gold standard. Ratings agencies are …

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UAE calls for Emergency UN Security Council meeting to seek pause to Gaza fighting

Arab representative on 15-strong council will seek binding resolution demanding Israel accept humanitarian pause Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor Sun 29 Oct 2023 14.43 EDT Last modified on Sun 29 Oct 2023 16.54 EDT An emergency meeting of the UN security council requested by the United Arab Emirates will be held on Monday as the council’s …

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Canadian Inflation Hits 4.0% in August, Prompts Bank of Canada to Pause Rate Hikes Amid Economic Contraction and Home Prices Decline

Canadian Inflation Climbs to 4.0% in August, Driven by Soaring Gasoline Prices – Bank of Canada Pauses Rate Hikes Amid Economic Contraction In August, Canada experienced a notable inflation rate surge, reaching 4.0%, primarily attributed to the steep rise in gasoline prices. This rapid increase in consumer prices has raised concerns about the overall economic …

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Canada’s Two Biggest Housing Bubbles Beg for Rate Pause

British Columbia and Ontario premiers beg for the Bank of Canada not to raise rates. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is asking the Bank of Canada to stop hiking interest rates, saying Ontario families and businesses are struggling to get by and can’t afford another increase. The bank has raised rates 10 times since March 2022 in …

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Energy stocks are 5% below highs, indicating oil’s potential return of 48%, impacting Fed policy and financial markets. Rate hikes probability decreases, but odds of rate cuts drop, with no cuts until May 2024.

Energy stocks are only 5% away from recent highs. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe oil won't follow the same path. That alone would imply a 48% return from its current levels. As a crucial contributor to inflation, rising energy costs could have a… pic.twitter.com/fBZ60dhWlO — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 11, …

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US Housing Starts Surge Most Since 2016, Exceed All Estimates (The Pause That Refreshes As Fed Dot Plots Suggest Return Of Zorp [Zero Outrageous Rate Policies!)

by confoundedinterest17 Well, not really unexpected since the housing sentiment index for home builders was above 50 yesterday. But with The Fed pausing rate hikes, housing starts are soaring! US housing starts unexpectedly surged in May by the most since 2016 and applications to build increased, suggesting residential construction is on track to help fuel …

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Not Always Sunny! Philly Fed Business Conditions Declines To -16.6 In June (Powell Aka Green Man Faces Tricky Task of Explaining Rate Pause in Congress)

by confoundedinterest17 As I discussed yesterday, the Misey Index under Biden remains elevated compared to that of Trump pre-Covid despite massive financial stimulus from Green Man (The Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell). Now we have more evidence of an impending recession with the Philly Fed General Business Conditions index falling to -16.6 in June as Green …

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US Mortgage Rates UP 144% Under Biden’s Reign Of Error (Fed Likely To Pause Today But Raise Rates At July Meeting)

by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s “reign of error” is horrific. The inflation caused by Biden’s policies, The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending has caused mortgage rates to soar 144% since Biden took office. While The Fed is likely to pause today, but Fed Funds are pricing in a July rate hike. Banks are not going to …

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Bidenville! US Inflation Cools To 2x Target In May, 26 Straight Months Of Negative Weekly Wage Growth (Core Inflation Still At 5.3% YoY, Yet Fed Will Pause Rate Hikes)

by confoundedinterest17 Okay, Joe Biden was generally regarded as the dumbest member of the US Senate and mean-spirited (I won’t repeat podcaster Joe Rogan’s opinion of Biden). Now we realize how brazenly corrupt Biden is (taking bribes from China and Ukraine to influence American poliicies). Not only is Biden an attrocious human being, but his …

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Foul Powell On The Prowl! Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes, Bull Market Ahead! (US Inflation Seen Staying Elevated)

by confoundedinterest17 Foul Powell on the Prowl! Federal Reserve policymakers are about to take their first break from an interest-rate hiking campaign that started 15 months ago, even as they confront a resilient US economy and persistent inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the …

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Simply Unafforable! The Fed And Death Of The Starter Home Market (Fed Pause Will Not Help Much)

by confoundedinterest17 Starter homes are simply unaffordable. Treasury Secretary Janet “Too Low For Too Long” Yellen, and former Federal Reserve Chair, is partly responsible for a phenomenon plaguing America: the death of starter homes. As Mish has discussed, with main markets no longer an option for first-time buyers, Point2 looked at the country’s 100 largest …

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Fed likely to pause tightening despite being half way home

by confoundedinterest17 Don’t kid yourself. The talking heads at The Federal Reserve (more like Feral Reserve) are only about halfway there in terms of rate hikes. There is still over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the economy. The Taylor Rule implies a target rate of 10.12% while the current target rate is just over half that rate at 5.25%. A little over halfway there and The Fed is likely to pause rate hikes. Of …

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