Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The median household income necessary to purchase the median priced home for sale in the US ($124k) is now 57% higher than the current median household income ($79k). This is the most unaffordable housing market in history. Video: https://t.co/3GVJzoEu3z pic.twitter.com/lwqEsx6jX5 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 27, 2025
2025 Consumer Sentiment Statistics Only 1 in 4 Americans (26%) feel better off economically now than they were in September 2024. Meanwhile, just a third (34%) expect to be better off in six months than now. Nearly 2 in 3 Americans (63%) don’t believe the U.S. government is taking the right actions to address economic …
Expecting similar results for Unilever, Coke, Pepsi, P&G, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and other consumer discretionary companies Edit: While a stock market fluctuations are normal, I find it concerning that the CEO has come out and said that consumer confidence is low to the point it is impacting shopping behaviours at Walmart, a low price …
It doesn’t take much effort to see that the market is extremely overvalued (long-term view). The 6-month slope of the NDX/GDP ratio turning down after reaching an extremely overvalued level has signaled previous cycle shifts. This month’s close will be crucial. pic.twitter.com/24aa8XLmpp — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) March 25, 2025 $NVDA's $17.1B China 🇨🇳 business — …
The damage to the economy is becoming undeniable as we face government layoffs, spending cuts, tariffs, and increasingly strained international relations. The Trump administration’s policies have angered some of our closest allies, deported countless individuals, and led to the harassment of international travelers—some even facing imprisonment at the border. The economic fallout is beginning to …
While politicians across the globe keep pushing the narrative of fiscal responsibility, the bond market knows the truth: these governments are drowning in debt, and their economic recovery is little more than a façade. Bond markets do not believe the disinflation and deficit reduction messages of European and Japanese governments pic.twitter.com/PIVNPaMUBu — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) …
I’ll never understand the knee-jerk panic that sets in when markets correct or go into bear territory. People often make the costly mistake of selling at a loss, when they should be doing the opposite. Corrections are opportunities, not signals to run for the hills. The real wealth in the stock market isn’t made during …
A projected $500 billion drop in tax revenue means the government will have to sell even more bonds, adding pressure to an already strained market. With the deficit already at $1.8 trillion, this increases bond issuance by roughly 27%, pushing supply up while demand remains uncertain. That could send long-term interest rates higher, especially if …
According to Fortune, Donald Trump cares more about lowering the yield on 10-year bonds than the stock market or interest rates. At first glance, that may seem surprising, but let’s break down why this is crucial for Trump’s economic strategy. 10-year bonds are essentially loans that citizens give to the government for a decade, and …
As we discussed in this past weekend's #BullBearReport, the #market is likely at a near-term low given the deeper oversold conditions. https://t.co/4YMHjPb1Lw@thedailyshot pic.twitter.com/hoO5XBzZWm — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 24, 2025 Just a quick reminder not to get too #bearish on the #market until it #confirms that a #correction is more than just a correction. pic.twitter.com/TTApX8T8E5 …
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate Fed Fund Futures and rate cut expectations. The above chart is adapted from May and June CME Fedwatch Futures. The next Fed meeting is on May 7. As of March 23, the market thinks there is only a 22.1 percent chance of a single quarter-point cut. But if we further out …
Unitree unveiled a new video of its G1 robot performing acrobatic feats, as part of its lead up to production.
1/ National rents are in free fall. Average asking rent fell 4.8% nationally to $2,088 in February – the 5th straight month of declines. — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) March 20, 2025 3/ Toronto & Vancouver are no longer safe bets. 🔷 Rents for studios dropped 5-6% in both cities. 🔷 Over 20,000 new condos will hit …
Model me this: Dario expects full reciprocal tariffs to bump CPI to estimated +1.3% pts – about the same negative hit to GDP. Stagflation on top of bear market. So now tell me: Why are markets a buy here? https://t.co/2pRSGdxYRH — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 19, 2025 Breaking CNBC: Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan …
Skyrocketing rates make homeownership impossible for most Americans, with $124,150 needed to afford the median home—far above the $79,223 median household income. As of January, "qualified income" needed to afford median home in U.S. was $124,150, but U.S. median household income was $79,223 … makes for a $44,927 affordability gap per @AtlantaFed data@DataArbor pic.twitter.com/hLA3s23L1o — …
by Mike Shedlock Homebuilder confidence is lowest level in seven months. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped again in march. NAHB Key Findings March 2025 Current sales conditions fell three points to 43. Sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 47. Traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 24. 29% of …
The market feels like a house of cards in a windstorm—teetering, trying to convince itself it’s stable, but deep down, everyone knows the truth. Sure, the S&P 500 has posted two straight days of 90% advancing stocks, but on what? Ghost-town volume. This isn’t conviction. This is a market that’s climbing because it doesn’t know …
Something ominous is brewing. — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 16, 2025 Monday: (Shoutout to Seeking Alpha for making this part of the catalyst watch) pic.twitter.com/fksCDbDsQq — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 16, 2025 Thursday & Friday: pic.twitter.com/aw2hOXzlR3 — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 16, 2025 Late night futures check Slowly deteriorating throughout the night. Buckle up pic.twitter.com/6ookbcYJX3 — …
We are 8% from the top – is that a "crash" ? pic.twitter.com/uQsEA0PYEn — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) March 15, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the White House prioritizes the “real economy” over short-term market volatility. He downplayed concerns about economic fluctuations, dismissed fears of a major slowdown, and emphasized the transition from government-driven to private sector-led growth. His comments come amid rising U.S.-EU trade tensions and stock market declines. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/03/13/treasury-secretary-bessent-said-the-white-house-is-focused-on-the-real-economy-and-not-concerned-about-a-little-market-volatility.html
The stock market slipping by 10 percent is nothing new. It has happened over fifty times since 1950. But what is different now is the effect. This decline has already erased wealth equal to 12 percent of GDP, something that has only happened a handful of times in modern history. That should make people ask …
For years, it’s been a bubble inflated by easy money and artificially low mortgage rates, fueled by the European Central Bank’s Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). It was all fine and dandy when mortgages were near zero percent. But now that rates have climbed to 4% and even 5%, reality has come crashing down. What …
by Clean_Army_4675 It is my belief that home prices can only really rise or fall. I do not think stability is possible because in the US housing is seen as an investment as opposed to a commodity. A large amount of the demand for homes that exists is people trying to invest in real estate …
by Michael We certainly do live in “interesting” times. In all my years of writing, I have never seen a stock market correction, a global trade war and a government shutdown all happen at the same time. If the federal government does indeed shut down on Friday, we will complete that very impressive trifecta. Needless …
Warren Buffett is likely selling his real estate empire – the latest warning sign that the property market is in dire straits. The real estate market has been on the skids in recent years. Brokerage companies have attempted to consolidate as home sales remain very low. Compass, the largest real estate brokerage in the country, …
🚨 BREAKING: BANKS 📉 📉 An inverted yield curve continues to squeeze bank profits. 💰 With Wall St. banks relying on market gains last quarter, Q1’s decline will deliver a massive blow to their margins. They are now joining the 🐻 Market pic.twitter.com/x2Jt5prneQ — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) March 10, 2025
Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com, The European Union’s new emissions trading system, expected to take effect in 2027, is set to hike prices for home heating and transportation, research firm BloombergNEF says in a new report. The new EU Emissions Trading System for buildings, road transport, and small industry, dubbed ETS2, is scheduled to become fully operational in 2027. …
