Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Wow, the put/call ratio is at its lowest level in five years! The last time it was this low was at the peak of the COVID-19 market bubble. pic.twitter.com/G4qKKTgag4 — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 20, 2025 Interesting. They’re betting trillions on this but hedging in case it all goes wrong. This isn’t bubble talk …
Are you bullish or bearish stocks over the next year? pic.twitter.com/Q01EpYkLiS — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) September 18, 2025 Subprime Crisis 2.0? Red Flags Fly As Alleged Fraud Triggers Billion-Dollar Auto-Lender Bankruptcy https://t.co/LnOPI0viIx — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 18, 2025
You can’t cut rates when you have inflation. David Tepper says Fed could cut a few more times, but easing too much risks entering ‘danger territory’ Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if …
Smart money is never the one left holding the bag… — Jerry Trades (@JerrysTrades) September 18, 2025 It should be obvious to everyone now that we're at the end of a 16 year economic cycle that was prolonged with cheap debt similar to 1929. https://t.co/NI1wf4NU25 pic.twitter.com/qnEppAZnlo — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 17, 2025
**POWELL: "NO RISK-FREE PATH WITH TWO-SIDED RISKS" Powell is telling everyone we have stagflation. — JaguarAnalytics (@JaguarAnalytics) September 17, 2025 Ladies and Gentlemens, we have or very near peaked. https://t.co/E5cf64jOpW pic.twitter.com/Ua4JmsV9T9 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 18, 2025 Maybe if you included a "Slowdown" period…. Like 2007-09 or 2001? 😁 Macrobond's chart clearly show …
While the cattle focus on the US market, cracks have begun appearing elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/0xNzPgNRP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 18, 2025
Especially if there are tariffs or export bans on key metals or value chain products like with rare earth elements. There will not be as many free markers where the US and China are in a technology arms race or Cold War 2.0 over 5 or 6 key technologies… pic.twitter.com/7RjXIdKo5z — Jason Burack (@JasonEBurack) September …
by confoundedinterest17 Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow. But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor. Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought us up to date with the latest official figures on the UK labour market and we can start with this. Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 142,000 (0.5%) between July 2024 and July 2025, and by 6,000 (0.0%) between June 2025 and July 2025…….The early estimate …
Fun fact. In order to revive the stalling real estate market, Chinese government halted projects under construction and demolished buildings which could accommodate over 75 million people (more than the entire population of the United Kingdom).pic.twitter.com/YbnCScKi1V — Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) September 16, 2025 Japan’s Kajima Cut and Take Down method demolishes buildings from the bottom up …
via notayesmanseconomics This week has opened with some sobering news for La Belle France as late on Friday we were told this. Fitch Ratings – Frankfurt am Main – 12 Sep 2025: FitchRatings has downgraded France’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘A+’ from ‘AA-‘. The Outlook is Stable. This is hardly a surprise …
A mortgage buydown is a financing technique where upfront fees (paid by the buyer, seller, or builder) lower the interest rate on a home loan, either temporarily (e.g., 2-1 buydown: 2% reduction year 1, 1% year 2) or permanently via discount points. It reduces initial monthly payments but they may rise later. Often used by …
They say the economy’s fine. That’s the first lie. You walk through any town that used to have factories, used to have warehouses, used to have jobs, and you don’t see recovery. You see silence. Long-term unemployment just hit a post-pandemic high. That means people aren’t just out of work. They’ve been out for half …
The question is urgent and deceptively simple: will the market face a persistent drag as Baby Boomers begin liquidating 401Ks in retirement, and the answer might be more unsettling than most people realize. Historically, the S&P has returned about eight percent annually, a figure so often cited that it feels like gospel, but the reality …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjUafsEuUVg The job market in 2025 is harsher than many imagined, with layoffs continuing to sweep through industries and leaving workers in limbo. Companies that once promised stability are now trimming staff, freezing hiring, and leaning heavily on automation and contract work. This has left millions of people struggling to find steady jobs, while those …
Traders are piling into record highs as if cheap money alone fixes slowing jobs and sticky inflation. It’s not disconnected from Money Supply though. pic.twitter.com/PsN8F6YMfu — Graham Sanders (@geswolfcrest) September 12, 2025 When the tide goes out, we get to see who was swimming naked. I expect epic amounts of fraud to appear as the …
Alright, so if you’ve been following my housing market analysis since I first started warning about this bubble back in 2022, you know exactly where this is headed. The latest batch of data from July and August just dropped, and it’s confirming everything I’ve been warning you about: The housing market crash has begun. This …
Sellers in some US metros are growing so frustrated with the state of the housing market they are de-listing their homes at an alarming rate. Beyond slowing sales and flat prices, de-listings have become a defining feature of this summer’s housing market. Nationally, de-listings rose 57 percent in July compared to the same time last …
Don’t be a late bull.The building may look strong, but its foundation weakens day by day.Dollar Index at all-time lows.Gold at all-time highs.Market at all-time highs — yet small caps haven’t reclaimed theirs.Inflation ticking up but Fed expected to cut rates. All of this… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) September 11, 2025 This "market" is at extreme …
the US is in a race to the bottom. Lets rally the market until everyone is unemployed Clown economics https://t.co/NElBaYYabM pic.twitter.com/q3IO64aALc — Fernando (@fernandowavesfx) September 9, 2025 Posted 30 minutes apart. pic.twitter.com/QcvZsb5wKh — Melanie D'Arrigo (@DarrigoMelanie) September 9, 2025 The desperation is real. The FED should raise rates. https://t.co/Ufozhqqq0H — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September …
Is this still “pure noise” or is the bond market reacting to macro news? pic.twitter.com/iXKsb48s9q — Steve Hou (@stevehou) September 8, 2025 THE ECONOMY IS WEAKENING – JAMIE DIMON — Kang (@thuhkang) September 9, 2025 Like the cuts before it, the 3-month is leading the way. A 0.25 cut is within the range of the …
Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, former Lehman Brothers trader and senior executive, author and Founder of the Bear Traps Report https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ paid newsletter, Larry McDonald
The latest tariff changes on small purchases, hit shipping like an iceberg, yet the Titanic Treasury market will be at risk if the Supreme Court Reverses Trump’s tariffs. by David Haggith A lot more news streamed in since my Deeper Dive on the labor market, affirming the major recessionary downturn I reported in my analysis. …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
Young people are using ChatGPT to write their applications; HR is using AI to read them; no one is getting hired. Harris started looking for his first real job months before his graduation from UC Davis this spring. He had a solid résumé, he thought: a paid internship at a civic-consulting firm, years of volunteering …
Unemployment is climbing, inflation is creeping back, and the pressure is building exactly like it did a century ago. The Great Inversion is finally upon us. Get out while you still can. When the wealthiest top 0.00001% quietly unload their bags onto the 99.99% of retail sheep, it’s not a market, it’s a transfer. And …
The idea that the U.S. housing market is finally responding to buyers is a lie engineered to mislead. Beneath small price shifts and stagnant mortgage rates, the system is still structured to preserve inflated valuations, restrict liquidity, and trap both homeowners and prospective buyers. Reports that suggest softening prices or easing rates are not signs …
History shows (12 out of 12 times since 1947) when unemployment rises, it rises hard and it rises fast. This time will not be different. pic.twitter.com/aTzJEzO9He — Bob Hyneman (@BobhynemanUSA) September 6, 2025
