lower

Can The Fed Fix Biden/Congress Spending Addiction? Volcker, Greenspan, Yellen, Powell All Pushed Rates Lower … Until Biden (Fed Still Ignoring Taylor Rule) Mortgage Rates Continue To Climb

by confoundedinterest17 I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden raising of The Fed’s target rate which resulted in a cooling …

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Mortgage rates close to 8%; 64% of Americans would welcome a recession if it meant lower mortgage rates — Would you?

Mortgage Rates Close to 8% as Economy Refuses to Cool Inflation and economic growth…  Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates over the past few years.  The Fed won’t signal an end to its “higher for longer” rate policies until it sees lower …

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Banking crisis on the horizon? Chase JPMorgan, Bank of america, City Bank all look like they’re headed lower the charts are very ugly. Investors are fearful.

by theSilverVigilante Rising #bond #yields is hurting #US #banks and it starts to show up in the #cds – see below. With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered. Maybe the #Fed should have stress-tested the banks not only on credit quality but also duration… Source: …

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‘This is as awkward as it sounds! The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the LOWER yields.’

The Bank of Japan, which holds a staggering 47% of ALL outstanding Japanese government #debt, has announced additional bond purchases to push #yields lower. This is as awkward as it sounds!The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the LOWER yields. pic.twitter.com/vAL0qWM87f — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 2, 2023 When your perspective is #debt sustainability on a macro …

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Rising Unemployment: A False Hope for Lower Interest Rates?

by bitkogan The uptick in unemployment to 3.8% fits nicely into this week’s trend of “bad news is good news.” While the rise is largely due to a revised participation rate, the key takeaway is that it represents yet another piece of negative news. The market has been eagerly anticipating such developments, hoping they might …

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Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up

Scary Halloween in markets? 🎃 👻 “Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group…Payments on approximately $1.1 trillion of federal student loans will resume in October, potentially setting consumers up for a “payment …

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Bidenomics! US Payrolls Were Likely 306,000 Lower Than Previously Estimated (July Jobs Growth Slowed To 2.2% YoY As M2 Money Growth Slowed To -3.7% YoY)

by confoundedinterest17 Preliminary benchmark revision smaller than some had projected Biggest payrolls adjustment in transportation and warehousing Are you surprised that the Biden Administration has been lying about job creation?? Not really since Biden compulsively lies about everything. Including his corruption. US job growth was probably less robust in the year through March than previously …

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Lowriding! US Personal Savings Lower Than Pre-Covid As Core Inflation Still Hurts At 4.70% YoY (Large Bank Loan Volumes Shrank Last Week As Deposit Outflows Re-Accelerated)

by confoundedinterest17 US personal savings are being exhausted as The Fed raises rates to fight inflation. I call this phenomenon “low riding” where consumers are being punished by The Federal Reserve and Biden Administration. Meanwhile, large bank loan volumes are shrinking. With money-market fund assets hitting new highs, and banks’ usage of The Fed’s emergency funds facility at …

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Michael Burry bought $1.6 billion in $SPY and QQQ puts, but the real value is much lower, not the amount paid.

Due to the way options are reported, this is a common misconception. Calculated portfolio weighting for options is incorrect because nominal value is reported. Nominal value is calculated as "the number of option contracts" × 100 × "the value of the underlying security." 2/6 pic.twitter.com/6nxCuBDDtK — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 14, 2023 However, in …

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July Jobs Report Disappoints! Only 187k Jobs Added, Wage Growth Of 4.4% Still Lower Than Core Inflation Rate Of 4.8%, Rent CPI (June) Is Still Roaring At 7.8% YoY (May and June Figures Revised Sharply Lower)

by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is watching July’s jobs report carefully. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added 187k jobs in July, less than the expected 200k. US average hourly earnings continued at 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, the last core inflation reading was 4.8% YoY, so real wages continue to decline. Rent …

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Bidenomics (Or Yellenomics)! Real Weekly Earnings For Men LOWER Under Biden Than Jimmy Carter! (Men’s Real Weekly Earnings DOWN -9% Since Q2 2021 While M2 Money UP 31%)

by confoundedinterest17 President Jimmy Carter is usually the bar for terrible Presidents. Under Carter, the US experienced economic stagnation and soaring inflation. At least it led to the election of Ronald Regan! So, Biden’s much mentioned Bidenomics have produced REAL MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS FOR MEN that is currently below 1979 levels under Jimmy Carter. Even …

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Banks are in PAIN! Half of US banks with $11 trillion assets have lower assets value compared to debt liabilities, $2.2 trillion lower than book-value.

by Dismal-Jellyfish If half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, the losses due to CRE distress would result in up to 58 smaller regional banks becoming insolvent in addition to 186 banks that would become insolvent just due to higher rates. Wut Mean?: The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is about $2.2 trillion …

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The Fed’s Minsky Moment! Even Top 1% Of Net Worth Is Lower With Fed Tightening (US Industrial Production YoY Goes Negative)

by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve, an organization that even George Orwell would find outrageous, is a Minsky Moment Machine! A Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky Moment crises generally occur because investors, engaging in excessively aggressive speculation, take …

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Why Slower Inflation Won’t Prompt the Fed to Lower Rates

by bitkogan Sure, 3% is better than 9%. But given the new record highs in stock indices, it’s still not better enough to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates anytime soon. Firstly, 3% is still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Secondly, the low (relatively speaking) figures for the general consumer price index …

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Is Nvidia Overvalued? AVGO Boasts 62% Higher Net Income than NVDA, Yet with a 65% Lower Market Cap?

via WSB: In the rapidly evolving world of technology, NVIDIA has emerged as a leading player in the semiconductor industry. Known for its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, the company has garnered significant attention from investors. However, in the current economic environment, there are growing concerns that NVIDIA’s stock may …

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Don’t bet against #VIX when it’s close to lower BB…

https://twitter.com/VSoien/status/1670401985076510721 GILT 2y yield about to reach 5% @Altheaspinozzi pic.twitter.com/nFPtZDW4Rg — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) June 19, 2023 OOPS! UK 2y yields jump >5% for 1st time since 2008 ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision this week. Markets are pricing in another rate hike to 4.75%. The terminal rate is assessed at 5.8% for …

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Bidenomics! Industrial Production Unexpectedly Heads Lower In May, Still Signaling Stagnation (Joe’s Pacific Coast To Indian Ocean Railroad Hasn’t Kicked In Yet)

by confoundedinterest17 I wonder if Biden’s proposed railroad from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will generate massive industrial production growth? Is this more Bidenomics?? Industrial production unexpectedly dips in May. It peaked eight months ago. On a year-over-year basis, May’s Industrial Production declined to a lame 0.23%. As The Fed hikes rates and slows …

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Early signs of cooling labor market. US jobless claims surge, jobs lower, Europe enters recession.

Early signs of cooling labor market. Might take time, but its happening.$TLT and $GLD back in action. Also closely look at the steepening of curve, that is the most important thing to watch now. pic.twitter.com/P52O05Lisu — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 8, 2023 US jobless claims mysteriously surge upon "data" revision US jobs mysteriously revised …

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New Zealand to lower voting age to 16…

A sweeping review into the country’s electoral system is recommending the voting age be lowered to 16, a 3.5 per cent party threshold, and a public referendum on a longer Parliamentary term. An independent panel of experts has been considering public submissions on nearly every aspect of electoral law, commissioned by former Justice Minister Kris Faafoi in …

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Can the FED really lower rates this recession?

by watifurdadpulledout I know the Fed has loaded its chamber with 5.25% of interest rate hike and maybe 50bps more are coming over the next couple months. But the Core Inflation rate is still at 5.25%. The last CPI came in at 4.9% and is not going down to 2% anytime soon. If anything summer …

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