A hub for independent voices and signals
by confoundedinterest17 I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed …
Mortgage Rates Close to 8% as Economy Refuses to Cool Inflation and economic growth… Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates over the past few years. The Fed …
As we have noted multiple times this year, the same trend can be seen in the Nasdaq. 70% of the index's YTD performance is from just 10 stocks. Perhaps this is just the new normal as tech giants become bigger. …
by theSilverVigilante Rising #bond #yields is hurting #US #banks and it starts to show up in the #cds – see below. With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered. Maybe the …
The Bank of Japan, which holds a staggering 47% of ALL outstanding Japanese government #debt, has announced additional bond purchases to push #yields lower. This is as awkward as it sounds!The higher the debt-to-GDP ratio, the LOWER yields. pic.twitter.com/vAL0qWM87f — …
by bitkogan The uptick in unemployment to 3.8% fits nicely into this week’s trend of “bad news is good news.” While the rise is largely due to a revised participation rate, the key takeaway is that it represents yet another …
Scary Halloween in markets? 🎃 👻 “Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group…Payments on approximately $1.1 trillion …
by confoundedinterest17 Preliminary benchmark revision smaller than some had projected Biggest payrolls adjustment in transportation and warehousing Are you surprised that the Biden Administration has been lying about job creation?? Not really since Biden compulsively lies about everything. Including his …
by confoundedinterest17 US personal savings are being exhausted as The Fed raises rates to fight inflation. I call this phenomenon “low riding” where consumers are being punished by The Federal Reserve and Biden Administration. Meanwhile, large bank loan volumes are shrinking. With money-market …
Due to the way options are reported, this is a common misconception. Calculated portfolio weighting for options is incorrect because nominal value is reported. Nominal value is calculated as "the number of option contracts" × 100 × "the value of …
Keep printing. You wanted "free money" from government? You got lower real wages. Unemployment and real wage growth. @OECD pic.twitter.com/Xph5GwZRqt — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) August 8, 2023
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is watching July’s jobs report carefully. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy added 187k jobs in July, less than the expected 200k. US average hourly earnings continued at 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, …
by confoundedinterest17 President Jimmy Carter is usually the bar for terrible Presidents. Under Carter, the US experienced economic stagnation and soaring inflation. At least it led to the election of Ronald Regan! So, Biden’s much mentioned Bidenomics have produced REAL …
by Dismal-Jellyfish If half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, the losses due to CRE distress would result in up to 58 smaller regional banks becoming insolvent in addition to 186 banks that would become insolvent just due to higher …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve, an organization that even George Orwell would find outrageous, is a Minsky Moment Machine! A Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable …
by 2201992 I hate Fact Checkers. But god dam Community Notes is amazing. Community Notes is doing what real Fact Checkers are supposed to do. Which is call bull shit.
by bitkogan Sure, 3% is better than 9%. But given the new record highs in stock indices, it’s still not better enough to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates anytime soon. Firstly, 3% is still above the Federal …
via WSB: In the rapidly evolving world of technology, NVIDIA has emerged as a leading player in the semiconductor industry. Known for its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, the company has garnered significant attention from …
by confoundedinterest17 The University of Michigan consumer survey results are out and there is good news! Sort of. The UMich Buying Conditions for Houses rose to 47 in July! That is the good news. The bad news? It was at …
https://twitter.com/VSoien/status/1670401985076510721 GILT 2y yield about to reach 5% @Altheaspinozzi pic.twitter.com/nFPtZDW4Rg — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) June 19, 2023 OOPS! UK 2y yields jump >5% for 1st time since 2008 ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision this week. Markets are …
by confoundedinterest17 I wonder if Biden’s proposed railroad from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will generate massive industrial production growth? Is this more Bidenomics?? Industrial production unexpectedly dips in May. It peaked eight months ago. On a year-over-year basis, …
Early signs of cooling labor market. Might take time, but its happening.$TLT and $GLD back in action. Also closely look at the steepening of curve, that is the most important thing to watch now. pic.twitter.com/P52O05Lisu — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) …
A sweeping review into the country’s electoral system is recommending the voting age be lowered to 16, a 3.5 per cent party threshold, and a public referendum on a longer Parliamentary term. An independent panel of experts has been considering public …
by watifurdadpulledout I know the Fed has loaded its chamber with 5.25% of interest rate hike and maybe 50bps more are coming over the next couple months. But the Core Inflation rate is still at 5.25%. The last CPI came …