Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
https://twitter.com/Notbullnorbear/status/1958221007820300469 Think of the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) as the Fed’s overnight parking garage for cash. Funds drive in with dollars, the Fed hands them Treasuries as a claim ticket, and the next day they swap back with a little extra. That extra is interest, the RRP rate. — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) August 20, 2025 The …
via GLP: A friend of a family member (big bank exec) just warned me – something very ugly is about to break Ok, I don’t usually post this kinda thing but after talking with a person acquainted with my family (he’s senior in risk division at one of the big Euro banks, can’t say which …
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
The Fed is back in the bond market. No cameras. No policy announcement. Just $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries scooped up in a single week. In May 2025, the Fed quietly bought $43.6 billion through its System Open Market Account (SOMA) — including $8.8 billion in 30-year bonds on May 8 https://dailyhodl.com/2025/05/24/fed-quietly-buys-43600000000-in-us-treasuries-in-alleged-stealth-qe-operation-after-china-abruptly-dumps-billions-in-bonds/ The official term …
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to future expectations of liquidity. https://t.co/BBAvbXcSzQ — 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) August 9, 2025
The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility balance fell to just $78.1 billion on August 7, 2025. This shows banks are pulling money out of the Fed, holding onto cash instead of lending or investing. “The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) balance dropped to just $78.1 billion on August 7, 2025.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Meanwhile, foreign buyers sold $78 …
The Fed’s choice to hold rates high is often misunderstood. It removes dollars from circulation, balancing the impact of tariffs and fewer global trades. Liquidity dries up, which means stocks lose their usual momentum. Investors turn to bonds instead, pushing yields lower without direct Fed intervention. “The Fed is cautious because inflation remains a threat …
Bubble burst could hammer crypto again. Bitcoin is a RISK ASSET. It is driven by LIQUIDITY. When liquidity dries up in a Bursting Bubble – BTC crash. Will it recover….? Perhaps. Likely. But it has crashed 4 times by more than 75%. To think that it is a great asset to hold in the burst …
Hong Kong’s banking system just entered high alert. What began as a coordinated stablecoin rollout is now unraveling into something more serious. On July 22, internal communication circulated among Hong Kong’s monetary authorities warned of acute stress across token-backed reserves and real-time settlement chains. The letter outlined scenarios where liquidity could evaporate if collateralized redemption …
Inflation fears return money flood reignites pressure… 📈 U.S. M2 Money Supply Hits Record $21.9 Trillion in May 2025 The U.S. M2 money supply—comprising cash, checking deposits, and other liquid assets—rose to a record $21.94 trillion (seasonally adjusted) in May 2025, up 4.5% year-over-year. Although below the long-term average… pic.twitter.com/Qb7iuJnj11 — Econovis (@econovisuals) June 30, …
Markets hit weekly high right after Israel strike but low summer liquidity could trigger another brutal crash… Oil is pointing to a new global deflation. That I predict will be outside of central bank control aka. a mass deleveraging event. pic.twitter.com/Srkj9RtjbJ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 24, 2025 Today was the biggest down day for oil …
US corporate profits just fell the most since the global financial crisis days ("GFC"). But, don't worry… all is well. pic.twitter.com/yTXi6TF7Sy — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) May 29, 2025 Leading Economic Indicators look at the future.Lagging Economic Indicators look at the past. When we divide the Leading Index by the Lagging Index, we get a series …
More data: The NASDAQ appears to correlate roughly 70–80% with changes in the Fed’s discount window usage—markets tend to rise when liquidity rises and fall when it’s pulled back. pic.twitter.com/rjmIWWKCuW — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) May 22, 2025
Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japan’s 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since 1987. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12%, and the 40-year hit an all-time… https://t.co/e2Aa7r63dz pic.twitter.com/9Yxww5ehA2 — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) May 20, 2025 …
2/ A lot of investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery But for that, we’d need a dramatic shift in the economic outlook Basically, all the fears priced in earlier this year would need to vanish soon pic.twitter.com/e0olcH9a6J — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 19, 2025 4/ And we’ve seen V-shaped rebounds before The most recent example …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are companies going to be able to afford this? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 14, 2025 …
The trade deficit will find another level but the situation is actually worse once people step back and think about sht for more than a degenerate price tick. The underlying problem with this disorderly “Flood the Zone” manner in which the current ‘rebalancing’ of US trade is being conducted is that trade disruptions are happening …
Before you get too bullish, be aware that $SPX is facing liquidity headwinds pic.twitter.com/YOnBnVeBRU — Cam Hui, CFA (@HumbleStudent) May 4, 2025 Keeping a close eye on volatility on Monday. Both $VIX futures and 3 month VIX futures broke the 50 day moving average on Friday. If volatility finishes the day flat that's a huge …
The Silent Banking Crisis: Understanding the $482 Billion Time Bomb U.S. banks are currently sitting on $482 billion in unrealized losses on their investment securities primarily long-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought during the 0% interest rate era. This figure has jumped 33% in just the last quarter, making it the worst paper loss environment …
by MonetaryCommentary This particular offshore dollar liquidity gauge, calculated as the ratio of total liabilities of foreign-related institutions in the U.S. to U.S. deposits at foreign banks, remains mired in a secular upswing, suggesting that foreign banks are still boosting their dollar liabilities in U.S. markets at a faster pace than U.S. residents are placing dollars …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
By Matthew Piepenburg In this lengthy yet substantive/timely discussion with Alex Deluce of Gold Telegraph Conversations, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, leads viewers through the fog, confusion and volatility of recent headlines toward a simple lighthouse. In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, seismic geopolitical shifts, de-dollarization trends, extreme market volatility and recessionary reality into a simple lens: …
The economy is facing a storm of contradictions, and it’s beginning to show its cracks. As tariffs weigh heavily, the fear of inflation is creeping back into the market, even as the dollar is in freefall. The result? A liquidity problem that’s raising short-term yields and strengthening the yen—something we haven’t seen in years, all …
$ES_F projected to touch near 5284 by tomorrow close.This is likely a dead cat bounce. pic.twitter.com/xKI5Hpvozg — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 8, 2025 Both $TLT and $GLD sold off today — and that’s a warning sign. ⚠️ Cross-asset correlations are breaking, which often signals instability beneath the surface.Even though $VIX has likely peaked, the next phase …
T-Bills are warning about troubles again ⚠️ Is the BOJ selling USD in the market again to buy back JPY after printing too many of them to once again save the sinking JPY carry trade ship or is Norinchukin in need of another shot of liquidity adrenaline to stay in business? https://t.co/ErG511e2zt pic.twitter.com/4VL4YLuso3 — JustDario …
“People are yet to understand that we have a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury, not an ex-Central Banker. He deeply understands liquidity impacts and how to drive financial conditions to drive liquidity and how that in turn drives the economy and markets. His entire strategy is to lower the three legs of Financial …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving pic.twitter.com/HvkMtQ7zzE — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) April 1, 2025 Why are the 3 and 6 …
Liquidity moves markets. Everything else is just noise. That’s why Trump’s 20% tariff and the government spending cuts led by DOGE are setting off alarm bells. The U.S. is about to see a major shift in cash flow, and investors are paying attention. A blanket 20% tariff on all trading partners would push the U.S. …
