A hub for independent voices and hard truths
The Fed is back in the bond market. No cameras. No policy announcement. Just $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries scooped up in a single week. In May 2025, the Fed quietly bought $43.6 billion through its System Open Market Account …
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to future expectations of liquidity. https://t.co/BBAvbXcSzQ — 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 (@Negentropic_) August 9, 2025
The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility balance fell to just $78.1 billion on August 7, 2025. This shows banks are pulling money out of the Fed, holding onto cash instead of lending or investing. “The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) balance …
The Fed’s choice to hold rates high is often misunderstood. It removes dollars from circulation, balancing the impact of tariffs and fewer global trades. Liquidity dries up, which means stocks lose their usual momentum. Investors turn to bonds instead, pushing …
Bubble burst could hammer crypto again. Bitcoin is a RISK ASSET. It is driven by LIQUIDITY. When liquidity dries up in a Bursting Bubble – BTC crash. Will it recover….? Perhaps. Likely. But it has crashed 4 times by more …
Hong Kong’s banking system just entered high alert. What began as a coordinated stablecoin rollout is now unraveling into something more serious. On July 22, internal communication circulated among Hong Kong’s monetary authorities warned of acute stress across token-backed reserves …
Inflation fears return money flood reignites pressure… 📈 U.S. M2 Money Supply Hits Record $21.9 Trillion in May 2025 The U.S. M2 money supply—comprising cash, checking deposits, and other liquid assets—rose to a record $21.94 trillion (seasonally adjusted) in May …
Markets hit weekly high right after Israel strike but low summer liquidity could trigger another brutal crash… Oil is pointing to a new global deflation. That I predict will be outside of central bank control aka. a mass deleveraging event. …
US corporate profits just fell the most since the global financial crisis days ("GFC"). But, don't worry… all is well. pic.twitter.com/yTXi6TF7Sy — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) May 29, 2025 Leading Economic Indicators look at the future.Lagging Economic Indicators look at the …
More data: The NASDAQ appears to correlate roughly 70–80% with changes in the Fed’s discount window usage—markets tend to rise when liquidity rises and fall when it’s pulled back. pic.twitter.com/rjmIWWKCuW — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) May 22, 2025
Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb. The cracks in global bond markets just turned into fractures. Japan’s 20-year government bond (JGB) auction was the worst since 1987. Bid-to-cover ratios collapsed. Yields on the 30-year spiked to 3.12%, …
2/ A lot of investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery But for that, we’d need a dramatic shift in the economic outlook Basically, all the fears priced in earlier this year would need to vanish soon pic.twitter.com/e0olcH9a6J — Bravos Research …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are …
The trade deficit will find another level but the situation is actually worse once people step back and think about sht for more than a degenerate price tick. The underlying problem with this disorderly “Flood the Zone” manner in which …
Before you get too bullish, be aware that $SPX is facing liquidity headwinds pic.twitter.com/YOnBnVeBRU — Cam Hui, CFA (@HumbleStudent) May 4, 2025 Keeping a close eye on volatility on Monday. Both $VIX futures and 3 month VIX futures broke the …
The Silent Banking Crisis: Understanding the $482 Billion Time Bomb U.S. banks are currently sitting on $482 billion in unrealized losses on their investment securities primarily long-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought during the 0% interest rate era. This figure …
by MonetaryCommentary This particular offshore dollar liquidity gauge, calculated as the ratio of total liabilities of foreign-related institutions in the U.S. to U.S. deposits at foreign banks, remains mired in a secular upswing, suggesting that foreign banks are still boosting their …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The …
By Matthew Piepenburg In this lengthy yet substantive/timely discussion with Alex Deluce of Gold Telegraph Conversations, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, leads viewers through the fog, confusion and volatility of recent headlines toward a simple lighthouse. In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, …
The economy is facing a storm of contradictions, and it’s beginning to show its cracks. As tariffs weigh heavily, the fear of inflation is creeping back into the market, even as the dollar is in freefall. The result? A liquidity …
$ES_F projected to touch near 5284 by tomorrow close.This is likely a dead cat bounce. pic.twitter.com/xKI5Hpvozg — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 8, 2025 Both $TLT and $GLD sold off today — and that’s a warning sign. ⚠️ Cross-asset correlations are breaking, …
T-Bills are warning about troubles again ⚠️ Is the BOJ selling USD in the market again to buy back JPY after printing too many of them to once again save the sinking JPY carry trade ship or is Norinchukin in …
“People are yet to understand that we have a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury, not an ex-Central Banker. He deeply understands liquidity impacts and how to drive financial conditions to drive liquidity and how that in turn drives …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving …
Liquidity moves markets. Everything else is just noise. That’s why Trump’s 20% tariff and the government spending cuts led by DOGE are setting off alarm bells. The U.S. is about to see a major shift in cash flow, and investors …
So much for going to bed early…WTAF!?!?! Who barfed up a hairball in Japan? pic.twitter.com/KOqSdoEdW8 — RealJohnGaltFLA (@RealJohnGaltFla) April 1, 2025 Ummm, part 2…6 month blew out also pic.twitter.com/U79bulRkEz — RealJohnGaltFLA (@RealJohnGaltFla) April 1, 2025 🚨 U.S. 3 Month Yield …
Bitcoin is about to make a big move. And according to china liquidity injection, is to the downside. pic.twitter.com/lO5XrNFgR2 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) March 27, 2025 Bitcoin Mauling season on approach. pic.twitter.com/v1IkbAhCTz — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 26, 2025 …
June opex spx Call option 6500 strike $46.5June opex spx Call option 5500 strike $81.5 — Simon Says (@Seniorstrategen) January 18, 2025 It's a pretty huge sign the doors are closing in tbh When you see this and all the …
