Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨BIG WARNING: THE FIRST MAJOR DOMINO HAS FALLEN. Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager …
Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM, has argued that the recent surge in spending by Big Tech on AI-data centers is economically unrealistic. On the “Decoder” podcast he estimated that building and fully outfitting a one-gigawatt AI data center costs about $80 billion. Given that industry announcements suggest firms are planning up to 100 gigawatts of …
The housing market has been the ONLY market that has remained oddly unphased out all the markets that have taken hits recently…and that fucker is GROSSLY OVER VALUED! — Blackpilled Millennial (@tronics_sniffer) October 12, 2025 I don't think you understand how truly fucked we are… Imagine 2008 but 10x the leverage, + a housing bubble, …
Private Credit is where the next systemic financial risk is going to emerge from. Just a complete scam industry. Fake valuations. Pretending things are par when they are clearly not. Lending to garbage companies. And… it’s all being financed by debt from commercial banks (since banks can’t lend like this anymore after 2008). Private credit …
🚨BREAKING: 🇨🇦 Big Six banks are hoarding loan-loss reserves and watching lending grind to a halt under the chokehold of Trump’s trade war. pic.twitter.com/bD2RsiVgeA — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) May 21, 2025 Canada’s Big Six banks are tightening their grip on loan-loss reserves, bracing for economic uncertainty as Trump’s trade policies send shockwaves through financial markets. The …
A net 19% of banks tightened lending standards for large and medium-sized firms in Q1 2025, the highest share since Q3 2023. At the same time, a net 16% of banks tightened lending standards for small businesses, the highest share since Q1 2024. Furthermore, the number of banks reporting weaker demand for large firms’ loans …
Time to re-watch “The Big Short” for a preview of coming attractions. Nonbank mortgage lenders and loan brokers react quickly to demand, which has collapsed. https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/12/housing-bubble-bust-1-and-2-as-seen-through-employment-at-mortgage-lenders-they-shed-jobs-again-38-gone/ The lemmings who think real estate only goes up (thanks to 16 years of Fed QE) are in for a rude awakening. Silver, Bitchez!! byu/Boo_Randy_II inWallstreetsilver
Japanese interbank lending rate ripping upwards it's the meme! "reaching levels not seen since: 2008" pic.twitter.com/5AsCGavTjx — Roberto Rios (@peruvian_bull) April 23, 2025 Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world, comes out as bearish as I have ever heard them about the changing economic regime. pic.twitter.com/jMzXVhyMO5 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) April 24, 2025
She has an easy solution here. Marry the finance boyfriend, live on his income and use her nursing salary to pay off the debt. Done in less than 2 years. She can be debt free and pregnant by 30 if she hustles here — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) February 2, 2025 That’s not a loan—it’s a …
A mortgage lender owned by Warren Buffet’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has been sued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), alleging that the business pushed people into taking unaffordable loans. The Jan. 6 lawsuit was filed against Tennessee-based Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Tennessee. The …
European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe’s depositories are hardly alone as we see the same defensive behavior all over the global system. There is only one reason why they all have become so incredibly defensive.
Lending situation continues loosening Goldman pic.twitter.com/jWcf2pyula — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 6, 2024 This is the longest yield curve inversion since 1929 But the recession is still a no-show ht g.o.t. pic.twitter.com/x520TbUtPN — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 6, 2024
A lawsuit against major credit card companies, like Visa and Mastercard, has sent shockwaves through the financial industry. Interchange fees, which are transaction charges merchants must pay every time a customer uses a credit or debit card, have been a contentious issue in the retail industry. Retailers have argued that these fees are excessively high, …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chpLkWfL3pU In a startling turn of events, credit card companies are facing a crisis as they prepare for a significant policy change that could potentially cripple a substantial portion of their revenue. This impending shift, set to take effect in just a week, revolves around the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s rule proposal aimed at curbing …
by confoundedinterest17 President Joe Biden and his boss Barack Obama remind me of the legendary corrupt Chicago politicians First Ward Alderman Michael “Hinky Dink” McKenna and “Bathhouse” John Coughlin. And their love of “boodle” (a slang term money, gained (Biden family payoffs from foreign countries), or spent improperly (Obama shipping large pallets of cash to US enemy …
The current economic landscape is giving rise to growing concerns, with labor market deterioration, tightened lending standards by banks, and persistent inflation creating a potential stagflationary environment that could impact consumers’ purchasing power and lead to an economic slowdown. This situation, where interest rates rise while prices surge, is beginning to resemble past scenarios that …
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
BREAKING Ally Bank, a major player in auto lending space, is beginning headcount reductions. Email below from its President of Dealer Services: pic.twitter.com/QnA8TsC5g5 — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) September 29, 2023
via geofinancialnews: Declining credit quality metrics in Commercial real estate lending pushed several banks to reduce their exposures to the sector by offloading loans related to the asset class, particularly office loans, in the second quarter. US banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios showed signs of increasing stress During the second quarter, the net charge-off …
The continuing lag will crush this economy! No more loans without very good collateral and prime lending is close to 9% and going higher. — Kerby Roberson (@KMACKROB) August 16, 2023
These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference from the last top: pic.twitter.com/IrPaM0TglA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 This chart sums it …
People are moving money from banks to money market funds due to high interest rates This means banks will have less money to lend and they will be more careful with who they lend to pic.twitter.com/jmdzNAqR56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 4, 2023 Capital Economics predicts 40% decline in commercial real estate values. Commercial real …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Table 1 (PDF) | Table 2 (PDF) | Charts (PDF) Wut Mean?: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending: Banks tightened standards for C&I loans to businesses of all sizes. All loan terms for C&I loans, like rate spreads, premiums on riskier loans, credit line costs, and many others, were tightened. Both large and other banks tightened C&I lending …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics, aka the Federal government takeover of the US economy with Soviet-style economic central planning, is highly dependent on loose Federal Reserve monetary policy (Janet Yellen and Powell’s wild overreaction to the massively inappropriate Covid shutdowns), So, how is Bidenomics working out? On the bank lending front, commercial and industrial (C&I) lending growth …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, ‘we’ get the promise of 2 more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position. What I want to talk about this afternoon is–Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks. What are Commercial and Industrial Loans? Commercial and Industrial (C&I) …
All 23 US banks that participated in a new Federal Reserve stress test would be able to withstand a severe global recession, demonstrating the strength of the biggest financial institutions at a time when the banking industry still is on uncertain ground. Results released by the Fed Wednesday show that these banks would have enough …
by BoatSurfer600 As rates rise and the economy slows, banks tighten their credit lending standards out of fear of higher loan losses. If the credit to the economy dries up more than anticipated, then the slowdown might accelerate. A credit-starved economy is no bueno Source: Sagar Singh Yield curves around the world are inverting the …
The banks all know the collateral being offered is toxic-waste sh*t. Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High; Money Market Funds See Small Outflow https://t.co/ZO97GCHNT5 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 15, 2023 They’re def hoarding them Interbank lending has completely plunged as banks began hoarding reserves instead for the IOER which has created …
The fear of a US banking crisis has largely faded from market sentiment, but it seems there's a steady, low drumbeat of distress among some firms. The amount of money lent out under the Fed's emergency lending facility rose for a sixth straight week, remaining above $100 billion. pic.twitter.com/NPCTzVhbZI — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 15, …
BREAKING: Citizens Financial Group is ceasing all indirect auto lending. Basically: — One less lending partner for dealers — One less financing option for potential car buyers Lose/lose situation. The pace of change in the auto lending business right now is mind-boggling. pic.twitter.com/eLQDhH9Qy2 — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) June 7, 2023