Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via notayesmanseconomics As we approach Christmas the pace has really picked up in economics and financial markets and let me start my look at the UK with an international perspective. TOKYO (Kyodo) — The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond hit 2.020 percent on Friday, its highest level since August 1999, after the Bank …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news which made me double-check it. So without further ado let me hand you over to the Financial Times. Please do not adjust your sets. Investors have increased bets that interest rates in the Eurozone could rise next year even as the US continues to lower borrowing costs, in …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news which takes me back to my blog on the 26th of November.,when I pointed out this. It feels as though the mood music has shifted back to interest-rate cuts and let me return to the ECB. It has claimed that interest-rate cuts are no longer necessary. Once you …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news that links straight into something I was thinking yesterday. As I wrote the piece on the struggles of the German economy the thought that the ECB would cut interest-rates again from the present 2% was on my mind. I had long thought they could go to 1.5% anyway, …
via notayesmanseconomics We find ourselves in what has become a rather familiar situation for 2025 where there is pressure for lower official interest-rates, but bond yields do not play ball. We can start with the former and as so often this year President Trump is making headlines. President Donald Trump suggested he would fire Scott …
via notayesmanseconomics It is time to look at Nihon or the land of the rising sun again. What we are seeing there is that again it looks to be pushing the boundaries of monetary and fiscal policy. Let us start with monetary policy and here is Reuters from just under a week ago. A Bank …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought something which I thought was pretty much inevitable in these times so let us get straight to it. From the Riksbank of Sweden. To provide further support to economic activity and to stabilise inflation at the target in the medium term, the Executive Board has decided to cut the …
via notayesmanseconomics Just when we thought that today would be about the French vote of confidence Japan has rather stepped forward. Along the way it has confirmed one of my themes as it received some better economic news. Japan’s economy expanded in the three months through June, the government confirmed in a revised report, as …
via notayesmanseconomics: Last night the US Federal Reserve gave its latest policy statement on US interest-rates. That is significant in itself but it has an additional importance in that due at least partly to the changes in economic policy started by President Trump we are more than usually aware of the flaws in using GDP …
via notayesmanseconomics It has been rather an eventful week in terms of financial markets and economics as investors try to come to terms with a different looking situation. But a side-effect has been rather a quantum shift in bond markets and expected interest-rates. We looked at one feature of that yesterday in Japan where the …
by notayesmanseconomics As we arrive at Christmas Eve and the end of my blogging year we see that the main economic themes of 2024 are still in play. Let me start with one that as we came into the year looked if we use modern language that it was like, over. Since September, the ten-year …
by notayesmanseconomics This has been a rather extraordinary year for interest-rate expectations. We came into the year with expectations having been fed by the US central bank. The quotes below come from the 14th of December last year. So we moved onto expectations of them cutting interest-rate next year and in fact there was even …
via notayesmanseconomics Later this week the European Central Bank meets to set interest-rates for the Euro area and yet again we see that its Forward Guidance on the subject is in disarray. Let us start our journey by seeing how it is doing on the inflation front. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.8% …
via notayesmanseconomics Today is Federal Reserve day when just after 7pm (they are usually late) we learn the interest-rate decision of Jerome Powell and his colleagues. On the surface not much is expected which is highlighted by the front page of the Financial Times not mentioning it at all as I type this.Yet underneath the …
via notayesmanseconomics Today we can look east and let me reverse my usual order by looking at financial markets first because there is something rather extraordinary. BOJ DOESN’T BUY ETFS ON MONDAY, DESPITE MORNING DECLINE IN TOPIX. ( @financialjuice) That caught my eye because even with this morning’s fall of 2.1% the Nikkei 225 is …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning we have heard from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Times have been getting harder in a strategic sense for the land down under as the Chinese economy has struggled. Last year was one where the consensus was of recovery for China whereas I was worried about the consequences of the popping …
via notayesmanseconomics: It is still early in the morning and yet the theme for today is already interest-rates. Even the country that was most committed to negative interest-rates is these days in on the game. For newer readers it held interest-rates at -0.75% for some years. The SNB is tightening its monetary policy further and …