Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via notayesmanseconomics Over the last week or so we have seen quite a change in the economic data coming out of the US in an area the Federal Reserve looks at closely. Yesterday saw this from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy added 911,000 fewer jobs (or -0.6% of total employment) than initially reported …
via notayesmanseconomics As this week has progressed with the Western Capitalist Imperialists struggling with rising bond yields China can afford a wry smile. We noted the all-time lows being seen as its benchmark 10 year yield went below 2% as autumn turned to winter last year. Well now it is 1.75% as those invested in …
via notayesmanseconomics This week is ending with sad news rather curiously circling the letter I. First we had the aircrash in India and overnight Israel attacking Iran.But we also have something which has become rather familiar in the Presidential terms of Donald Trump. CPI JUST OUT. GREAT NUMBERS! FED SHOULD LOWER ONE FULL POINT. WOULD …
🇺🇸 FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL JUST SAID: – appropriate for the Fed to re-evaluate how it sets and communicates monetary policy – We may be entering a period of more frequent and persistent supply shocks — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) May 15, 2025 *POWELL DOESN’T COMMENT ON NEAR-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, RATE PATH *POWELL: APPROPRIATE TO RECONSIDER AVERAGE …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news which suggests that the claimed pivot from some ECB policymakers would be sensible. Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 3.6% in January 2025 from 3.4% in December (revised from 3.5%). In fact 3.6% is the latest level overall. averaging 3.6% in the three months up to …
via notayesmanseconomics Yesterday the Chair of the US Federal Reserve went to Nashville Tennessee. Presumably not for the country music as he is a Grateful Dead fan. But he did give a speech on the subject of monetary policy. As we were reminded of the way he uses Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal …
by notayesmanseconomics Yesterday brought rather a marked change in views on the US economy and much of it related to this from the Institute for Supply Management or ISM. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 44.6 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 47.4 percent recorded in July. The August reading of …
Everywhere You Look, Rates Traders Are Piling Into Rate-Cut Bets (Bloomberg) — Positioning for an economic hard landing and aggressive Federal Reserve easing next year is spreading across the US interest-rate markets. In the cash bond market, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Treasury client survey, conducted weekly since 1991, found that the most active investors in …
by confoundedinterest17 Appartently, Joe Biden and fellow big spenders in Washington DC, Mordor on The Potomac, don’t care about fiscal discipline. With seemingly endless spending of wars (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the invasion at our southern border, and inane “green” spending, Janet Yellen and the US Treasury will be auctioning off $776 billion of debt in the …
via notayesmanseconomics: Today is the morning after the night before and let me hand you over to the Financial Times to explain why. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday to the highest level in 22 years, as it wrestles with how much more to …
by BoatSurfer600 Borrowers with expiring fixed-rate or tracker mortgages face difficulties, with some saying they will be forced to sell their homes via theguardian For Steven, a media consultant from Guildford, and his wife, the remortgaging nightmare is only beginning. “People like me can’t sleep at night – it’s horrendous,” he says. “The mortgage for …