Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The surface numbers are holding. The real prices are not. In Q1 2025, the median list price for a newly built home in the United States was $448,393. That is down just 0.3% from the same time last year. On paper, the market looks flat. But the paper is lying. Builders are pulling every lever …
lmfao pic.twitter.com/6anSLWhWlF — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 According to the national Association of home builders NAHB home builders are slashing prices on new homes at the highest rate since they have been keeping track. At the same time, the home builder confidence index levels continue to sink to new lows. about 33% below …
Homebuilders are far from desperate when the market starts to cool. They have a range of strategies at their disposal to avoid cutting prices. Instead of immediately reducing the cost of a home, builders begin by working through a list of tactics that still allow them to maintain their margins and keep their projects profitable. …
Homes sell better in lower interest environments. The fed is slowing those cuts. h/t MaranathahAmen
Home builders across Florida’s housing market are in panic mode in 2024, doing big price cuts to clear inventory.
via Mike Shedlock Speculative building, measured by started but unsold housing inventory, is at the highest level since May of 2008. To unload these units, builders will have to offer steep discounts. New Home Sales by Census Department, Chart by Mish Stage of Construction Details Homes for Sale: 480,000 the most since January of 2008 …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenflation, a name for the combination of reckless Federal spending and excess monetary stimulus related to Covid, is still causing severe pain for the middle class. The massive Federal spending splurge is still working its way through the economy and causing distortions, like surging new home sales despite higher mortgage rates. Some background …
pic.twitter.com/b5LO5kiVsG — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) October 3, 2023
by InternationalTop2405 The fact is that most buyers simply can’t afford homes at today’s prices. Next year my guess is that most buyers will not have suddenly gotten more wealthy. Only 1 way for home prices to go.
via Mike Shedlock: Median new home prices are plunging. What will homebuilders do for an encore to entice buyers? Median new home sales prices vs new home sales, data from the Census Department, chart by Mish Existing homes sales prices remain stubbornly high as measured by Case-Shiller repeat sales of the same home. In contrast, …
via Mike Shedlock Everything has gone right for homebuilders for a long time. How much better can things get? $SPHB S&P 500 Homebuilder Index courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish What Went Right? A hyperactive Fed with extremely loose monetary policy and repetitive rounds of QE until it finally ended on March 9th, 2022 the …
https://twitter.com/DataDependant/status/1671140724744519681 Rents collapse 20% in Austin? I thought there was a housing shortage? pic.twitter.com/GQtxMLYqIf — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 20, 2023