Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Unanimous 12-0 vote (no dissents). Fed says inflation remains elevated. Dot plot (their rate projections) turned more hawkish: 9 members see at least 1 rate hike this year. 5 see 2 hikes. 1 even sees 3 hikes. Only 8 see rates staying flat. Just 1 sees a cut. Market reaction right …
Median family income in the US increased from $10,000 in 1971 to $106,000 today, a 10x increase. However, the median cost of homes increased from $25,000 to $445,000, a 17x increase. And the median cost of cars increased from $3,600 to $50,000, a 14x increase. The median cost of college increased from $2,900 a year …
Japan just flipped the switch after decades of easy money and the markets are starting to feel it. The Yen is about to dance, rates are climbing, and every risk asset is waking up to the new reality. 🚨 BOJ GOES FULL HAWKISH MODE 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda says rate hikes will …
December rate cut odds are ticking lower after Fed member warns of stagflation #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/QHlkPIADLo — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2025 Fed’s Logan: WE FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER INFLATION IS TOO HIGH INFLATION TAKING TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET We are being primed for no rate cut …
https://twitter.com/AlessioTMAD/status/1959952991399596149 Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has risen to highest since late February (near when S&P 500 peaked that month) pic.twitter.com/eDKvF0VSx9 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 25, 2025 Bloomberg @economics’ Fed Sentiment NLP Model jumped by 0.49 points on Friday (one of largest single-day jumps this summer) … implies that Powell’s speech leaned more …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
by Mike Shedlock Based on Fed economic projections, it should not have cut interest rates today. Lead image is from today’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from today’s FOMC meeting. Key SEP Projections PCE inflation for 2024: 2.4 percent up from 2.3 percent. PCE inflation for 2025: 2.5 percent up from 2.1 percent. Core PCE inflation for …
https://finviz.com/ It's begun .. pic.twitter.com/LPPK8arfBz — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 18, 2024 I cannot wait to see this pig in an actual recession pic.twitter.com/0PeFOiX8GA — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 18, 2024 As we said in May 2024 when this clip was taken, this is the 2024 version of "inflation is transitory.” Fed Chair Powell …
via notayesmanseconomics: The economic theme of 2024 so far has been the expectation of and then the failure to appear of interest-rate cuts in the United States. This has a particular feature in that one member of the US Federal Reserve Neel Kashkari has apparently been on quite a journey and let us start with …
https://twitter.com/TRUMP4USD/status/1735657299811909701 Save this article headline … This is going to be one of those we look back on and laugh at. pic.twitter.com/qJs5C4TwJD — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 15, 2023 *WILLIAMS: WE AREN’T REALLY TALKING ABOUT RATE CUTS RIGHT NOW Two days ago: POWELL: RATE CUTS ARE A TOPIC OF DISCUSSION RIGHT NOW — zerohedge …
by confoundedinterest17 Fed’s Powell to double down of hawish rate message. Or banks and consumers can expect no sugar tonight. Expect a hawkish Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to double down on the Fed’s commitment to vanquish inflation at his semiannual testimony before Congress on June 21-22. While the immediate audience will be lawmakers, the message will be …
