Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
I called this timeline months ago. June and July 2026. I said it when there was no data to support it. I said it when people thought I was wrong. I said it when even the AI systems I work with told me I was getting ahead of the evidence. I said it because I …
The “Impossible Trinity” of Australian economics in 2026: they cannot cut rates because of surging fuel inflation, they cannot hike without crashing the housing bubble, and they cannot ignore the supply chain collapse because they are the last stop on the map. This is not a depression; it is a Disorderly Deleveraging during a global …
The biggest reason they’re leaving is the economy (inflation and worried about losing their job). The second reason is the high price of homeowners insurance. Third is they’ve bought over priced piece of shit vehicles for 100K, with payments spread over 96 months, which is insane. US buyers walk away from deals with cancellations at …
US asset demand shows no sign of abating. Demand for bonds rises and bond yields decline.https://t.co/MKLFCKQfrf pic.twitter.com/Y7YdQtGapA — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 14, 2026 NY Fed's Q4 GDP forecast now at 2.71% – getting closer to ATL Fed's 3.68% pic.twitter.com/zUGsltCT9n — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 14, 2026 Average American's weekly paycheck buys ~2% more …
Let’s take a walk down memory lane and see where all those bold 2025 Bitcoin targets ended up. • JPMorgan: 170,000 • VanEck: 180,000 • SChartered: 250,000 • Tom Lee: 250,000 • Robert Kiyosaki: 350,000 • BlackRock: 700,000 • Chamath: 500,000 • Michael Saylor: 1,000,000 • ARK Invest: 650,000 • Galaxy Digital: 400,000 • Pompliano: …
by Mike Maharrey With gold scaling record highs on what feels like a daily basis, mainstream financial analysts are scrambling to raise their price forecasts. Goldman Sachs recently upped its 2026 price projection to $4,900. Not to be outdone, Bank of America has now raised its 2026 forecast to $5,000 an ounce. Gold cracked the $4,000 …
pic.twitter.com/c2KZbYl04Z — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 8, 2025 Meanwhile the number of years of median income to buy a home keeps growing continuously. pic.twitter.com/jG0uuKJAYy — Aeraryum (@Aeraryum) October 9, 2025 The shutdown is now in week two and Washington’s gone silent. No jobs data, no CPI, no Treasury reports, the Fed is flying blind. Prediction …
Zillow’s home value estimate is now dropping in 24 states on a month-over-month basis, and in 15 states on a year-over-year basis, as of their August 2025 update. More broadly – home values are going down in half of the U.S. Housing Market, with the Sun Belt and West region experiencing declines. Access the data …
by confoundedinterest17 US Q3 GDP fell slightly in Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow latest revision to 3.0% from 3.5% last week. The source of the decline in GDP? Equipment investment fell to 8.9. From 11.7. Hard to sustain high levels of equipment investment. On a related note, office CMBS just hit all-time high. Yes, higher than the …
“Outside of the pandemic, the last time jobs growth was this low over a 12-month period was during the recession caused by the global financial crisis.” https://t.co/ay4fu2fJdt — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) August 25, 2025 America’s jobs market is bracing for a “Trump slump” as the president’s tariffs and immigration crackdown hammer businesses, economists have warned. …
“I was just thinking today.. whether I should put everything in gold and silver,” says Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. In today’s interview, Faber argues liquidity is flooding the system, fueling speculation in everything from stocks to crypto while crushing the middle class with soaring living costs. “Throughout 5,000 …
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Hurricane Erin is still expected to churn up dangerous waves and rip currents and could bring tropical force winds to North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
Goldman Sachs says 55 cities will see home prices fall. That’s 15% of the 381 metros they track. But they also say 39% will decline. So why spotlight the softest wound? “Goldman Sachs expects home prices to fall in 55 of the 381 metropolitan statistical areas it tracks, or about 15%.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-prices-forecast-goldman-sachs-housing-market/ “While we think …
AMD just pulled the pin. The MI350 chip, previously priced at $15,000, is now selling for $25,000. That’s a 67% jump. HSBC analysts say the chip now rivals Nvidia’s Blackwell B200 in performance. The MI355X variant, launched in June, is already shipping to Tesla and OpenAI. AMD’s 2026 AI chip revenue forecast was revised from …
https://x.com/1CoastalJournal/status/1943785887550386689
With no rain in forecast and windy af this could grow to be the largest wildfires in North American history pic.twitter.com/snLkmEjALI — Canadian Prepper (@PrepperCanadian) June 4, 2025 Out of the 109 wildfires reported in Manitoba this year over 90% of them are human caused. Green fanatics in the media and Ottawa still claim this …
(Reuters) -CrowdStrike forecast second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, signaling soft enterprise spending on cybersecurity products, sending the company’s shares down 6.7% after the bell on Tuesday. Higher interest rates and sticky inflation have forced clients to rein in tech spending, weighing on demand for companies such as CrowdStrike, despite an increasing need for robust …
*FED STAFF SAW RECESSION “ALMOST AS LIKELY’ AS MAIN FORECAST *FED MINUTES: TARIFFS MUCH LARGER, BROADER THAN EXPECTED pic.twitter.com/GoXICkMydr — Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 28, 2025 Federal Reserve officials are raising concerns over inflation, tariffs, and the weakening labor market. The latest FOMC minutes reveal growing worries that inflation could remain persistent, forcing difficult tradeoffs between …
$NVDA Earnings Forecast cut. Do you care? pic.twitter.com/aGQ9Uwncie — Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) May 27, 2025 NVIDIA’s earnings forecast has been revised downward, raising concerns among investors ahead of its upcoming financial report. Analysts now expect second-quarter revenue to fall below previous estimates, citing weaker demand in China and ongoing export restrictions. This adjustment signals potential …
SPY RSI Forecast: currently close to but not yet in the overbought territory. byu/kmmeow1 inGenerationalRiches Ran across this RSI Forecast Open-Source Script on TradingView today. Applied it towards SPY. Currently SPY’s 14 period RSI is close to but not yet in the overbought territory, and is staying above its Moving Average. This algorithm gave a …
by confoundedinterest17 DOGE is working: in Q1, US debt funding needs were $2BN less than the Treasury forecast in February, and in Q2 the Treasury is expected to need $53 billion less than it forecast 3 months ago. The result?
Global trade outlook is deteriorating: The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade to fall -0.2% in 2025, down from +2.7% growth expected at the beginning of the year. This would follow the +2.9% growth recorded in 2024. North American trade is set to be hit… pic.twitter.com/c6h7dlUv4h — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 23, 2025 …
🇩🇪GERMANY SLASHES GROWTH FORECAST – STAGNATION NOW ON THE MENU Germany just tossed its 2025 growth forecast in the trash – now expecting zero growth instead of the already sad 0.3%. That’s 2 years of economic flatlining…and with Trump’s tariffs back in play, Berlin’s staring… https://t.co/hCh8K7x1Mm pic.twitter.com/HPvspVNnGl — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 22, 2025 BERLIN …
CHINA’S 2025 GLOW-UP? CANCELLED. UBS SLASHES GROWTH FORECAST AS TARIFFS BITE UBS—the fancy Swiss bank that stares at charts for a living—just said “nah” to China’s 2025 economy. They downgraded the growth forecast from 4% to a gloomy 3.4%. Why? Because the U.S. slapped on those spicy new tariffs, and now China’s exports are going …
Walmart said President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could affect its profits in the first quarter, though it expects sales to be stable during the period and for the full year. In a news release, the discounter said it wants to “maintain flexibility” in case it has to spend more to keep prices low. The big-box …
Summary: The University of Michigan’s final report shows five-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993. Consumer sentiment plunged 12% from February, reaching its weakest level since November 2022. Two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to increase over the next year. Major U.S. equity indices dropped sharply following the release, with …
Zillow just revised down their 2025 housing market forecast to 0.6% price growth on a national basis, down from 2.9% earlier this year. The result is that Zillow is now forecasting home price declines in 250 cities across America, a clear sign of a slowing housing market. The areas in the U.S. where home prices …
The Atlanta Fed's 🇺🇸 Q1 GDPNow forecast just dropped to -2.8% down from -1.5% pic.twitter.com/aA87kp6f5w — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 3, 2025 The Atlanta Fed’s latest revision of the Q1 GDPNow forecast—dropping from -1.5% to -2.8%—is a serious red flag. It paints a picture of an economy struggling to keep its footing. The fact that the …
🇺🇸 CPI FORECAST: Zero firms on Wall Street are expecting a cooler inflation print tomorrow. 📈 $SPY pic.twitter.com/O8Y7LJru2U — LuxAlgo (@LuxAlgo) January 14, 2025
Moderna on Monday lowered its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion due to a few potential headwinds later this year, as the biotech company continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio. Moderna now expects 2025 revenue to come in between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second …