Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The European Central Bank held rates at 2.00% today but Christine Lagarde is already prepping the markets for a “Summer Hammer” in June… Euro-area GDP grew a dismal 0.1% in Q1, while energy-driven costs are pushing corporate selling price expectations to a staggering 3.5%… Central bankers are trapped by a “Stagflationary Nightmare,” the UK is …
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July, missing the forecast of 39.5. This is the third month in a row it has dropped and the biggest one-month fall since 2022. “Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July, missing the market forecast …
Current #eurozone spread blow-out should not be read through lens of 2012 #eurocrisis. Unlike in 2012, swap spreads of all sovereign bonds (incl. germany) are moving in same direction = rising basis for #eurozone as a whole. This pattern is closer to #GFC style liquidity crisis.… pic.twitter.com/OBsziN45gx — 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) December 3, …
Europe grapples with its decline Americans consumed by their country’s election cycle may be struck by the mood across the pond. In the apocalyptic rhetoric of Republicans, the American economy is the proverbial sick man of the West, hampered by rampant inflation, battered by tides of plundering illegal migrants and doomed by the leftist schemes …
Germany & France continue to underperform the rest of the region, IFO & INSEE business indicators have also disappointed. Yet, Germany consumer confidence has improved with a higher propensity to buy led by income expectations but remains weak as seen with high saving ratio. pic.twitter.com/uMP6kujXzX — Sabrina Khanniche (@skhanniche) July 26, 2024 Early signs of …
It is now little more than a “developing country”. Its stock market is a “junk shop” selling old tat. And its reputation as a place to do business has “never been so bad’. In the middle of the UK’s dismal election campaign, it would be easy to imagine that Britain was the country under discussion. …
Eurozone Retail Sales Volume pic.twitter.com/WGeFPQdJzU — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 8, 2024 📈 New data from the Indeed Wage Tracker 📉 🇪🇺 Eurozone – Downward trajectory resumed in March 🇬🇧 UK – Continued slowdown but wage growth remains high, a concern for monetary policymakers 🇺🇸 US – Wage growth is down to its 2019 …
Cautious #ECB last week amid upside risks to inflation due to solid wage growth. More data is needed to confirm that inflation is sustainably converging to target. Encouragingly, compensation per employee eased in Q4 to 2.8% from 3.6% Y/Y in line with negotiated wages. pic.twitter.com/rLmagWxE3n — Sabrina Khanniche (@skhanniche) March 14, 2024 The Eurozone’s economic …
via Mike Shedlock EU fiscal rules, on hiatus since the Covid recession, are about to restart. Recession is unavoidable. France and Germany take a leading role the action. Germany industrial production via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Eurozone Fiscal Rules Eurozone fiscal rules have been suspended since 2020 but have been reinstated for 2024. …
2/2 Comparison of GDP per capita between Slovakia which joined Eurozone in 2009 and Poland which did not adopt Euro. Any comments? Chart @Pekao_Analizy pic.twitter.com/bnHBuZNyum — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) February 7, 2024
In recent economic developments, the Eurozone finds itself navigating through a challenging period, marked by a hard landing. Two key indicators, household lending and retail sales, are sounding alarm bells, pointing to significant economic downturns across the region. Eurozone 🇪🇺 Household Lending pic.twitter.com/KY3UXjhm25 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 29, 2023 Eurozone 🇪🇺 Retail Sales …
Eurozone data paints a bleak picture of economic distress: retail sales plummet, wages pose risks, but savings have drained, financing is tight, and uncertainty looms, likely leading households to curb spending. Germany’s industry remains in a slump, facing weak demand and declining production. Despite a glimmer of hope in high order stocks, urgent concerns persist …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Mario Draghi, former ECB head, delivers a near certain recession outlook. A current ECB governor sees stagflation. However, an agonizing death of the Eurozone is the real story. Draghi Says Euro-Zone Recession Almost Sure to Happen Bloomberg reports Draghi Says Euro-Zone Recession Almost Sure to Happen The euro zone is …
Probably Nothing! 👀 pic.twitter.com/FQyWLZ01mR — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) November 6, 2023 💶 Correlation between Eurozone’s financial conditions and Euro-area GDP. Unsustainable divergence! Suggests downside ahead for GDP, currently at 0.1% YoY, unless financial conditions ease. H/t: @SvendsenAnders #recession pic.twitter.com/9lNZjexU0i — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 6, 2023 Not looking so good long term! Boom – …
Italy is experiencing a severe risk spread increase over German bunds, highlighting the daunting challenge posed by its 140% debt-to-GDP ratio without the ability to print its own currency. The Eurozone’s next crisis is already approaching, in #Italy. 10y risk spread over German bunds have spiked >200bps. Debt ratio of 140% of GDP is a …
Eurozone interest rates are at all-time highs 🚨 pic.twitter.com/rEQorle5Gh — Barchart (@Barchart) October 17, 2023
by Hagtzel LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) – Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed. Wednesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes complicate matters for the European Central Bank which wants to control still rampant price rises without causing a recession. …
OOPS! #Eurozone M2 money growth turned NEGATIVE for the first time in Eurozone history, in a promising sign for #inflation. M2 growth revised to -0.1% in May from initially +0.3%, and falls deeper into negative territory in June to -0.5%. pic.twitter.com/DSvBFl0Jz4 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 26, 2023 As the Global Economy Falters, European …
But even Services report points to severe contraction in economic activity: – Employment 53.3 (last 54.0)– Export orders 45.3 (48.6)– Price Pressure 60.4 (60.5) pic.twitter.com/zkpiC4vTQM — Mario Cavaggioni (@CavaggioniMario) July 24, 2023 WOW! #Germany's Manufacturing #PMI plummeted to 38.8, which points to outright #recession.Services held above 50.So, is this time different, and will Germany's self-inflicted …
The eurozone contracted for two consecutive quarters, data out Thursday shows, meaning it has entered a technical recession, signaling a loss of growth momentum in the single currency area buffeted by energy shocks, war, inflation, and monetary tightening. Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1 percent over the first three months of 2023 compared with the previous …