Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, discusses the outlook for the energy sector, and a “worst-case” that could cause an oil market shock and send prices beyond $200 a barrel.
Everyone sees the problems, but solutions are few and far between. Brandon Smith of alt-market.com thinks we shouldn’t give up yet. He cuts through the hand-wringing and proposes a radical plan to put the U.S. economy back on track… Photo by ThisisEngineering From Brandon Smith Alternative economists have been predicting a list of specific instabilities in the …
Kitco News, Released on 10/9/24 Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews E.B. Tucker, Editor of The Tucker Letter, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s influence on the economy and the future of gold. Tucker shares his perspective on the Fed’s role in maintaining economic stability through central management and its impact on market confidence. He …
by confoundedinterest17 Communications breakdown! As Harris wordsalads her vision of the economy saying small businesses are the backbone of the US economy, but small businesses aren’t feeling it. Small business optimism remains below 100 at 91.5. Perhaps the themesong of Harris/Walz should be “economy breaker.” Or former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown’s livin’, lovin’ maid.
Everybody knows that something is going terribly wrong with the U.S. economy. Government officials and the media can no longer fool the population saying that things are getting better, because behind their manufactured numbers and lies, there is a harsh reality we’re all seeing with our very eyes. We don’t need them to tell us …
“In the case of a full-scale war, Brent would likely soar above USD100/bbl, with any potential shut-in of the strait threatening prices of USD150/bbl or more,” Fitch Solutions’ BMI wrote in a note published Wednesday. While the probability of a full-scale war remains “relatively low,” the risks of a misstep by either side are now …
China’s economic planner outlined new measures to support the struggling economy; however, the government refrained from implementing significant new stimulus. China’s National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Zheng Shanjie on Tuesday announced a special purpose bond issuance to local governments to spur their growth. He explained that ultra-long special sovereign bonds totaling CNY 1 trillion have …
“Stellar NFIB Sep report showing an economy steaming ahead at full throttle. Max uncertainty – highest on record, higher than during COVID Ease of hiring – Sep major easing vs August completely at odds with NFP – As easy as Dec 19 (Smalls are largest private employers in US) % planning capex spend down 5 …
by Stefan Gleason The mainstream financial media is hailing Friday’s surprise “blowout” jobs report. According to the Labor Department, employers added 254,000 jobs in September, much more than had been forecasted. President Joe Biden joined Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in taking a victory lap for the supposedly strong economy. Among those unimpressed by the …
You may have heard about the East Coast dockworkers’ strike that, fortunately, only lasted for three days. Considering the strike was simply postponed until January, it’s worth a look at what such a black swan event will have on the average American’s cost of living. You need to understand what’s at stake – and how …
China’s economy is struggling. With an ambitious target of 5% growth this year, the country is dealing with weak consumer spending, a failing property market, and international pushback against its goods. By September, it was clear that hitting the goal was just plain impossible. In a last-ditch effort, Beijing rolled out stimulus measures, cutting interest …
U.S. Treasury yields jumped Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher more than 9 basis points at 3.946%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was 14 basis points higher at 3.85%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%. Nonfarm payrolls grew …
"The mining giant expects the energy transition sector will account for 23% of copper demand by 2050, from 7% currently…" Source: https://t.co/zwPSzBmZ5Y. — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) September 30, 2024 CEO of @IncRegulus John Black explains the looming copper supply shortage and the main drivers that will see demand for the metal grow to unprecedented …
Both major party candidates in the U.S. have started to share details about what they envision for the economy and how they want to get to that vision. What will be the real-world effects of those policies, and how can you get ready for what’s coming? From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group Key takeaways Harris …
via David Stockman There is only one way to rescue America’s faltering economy and that’s the wholesale abandonment of Washington’s reckless spending, borrowing and printing policies of the last quarter century. These policies did not remotely attain their ostensible goals of more growth, more jobs and more purchasing power in worker pay envelopes. What they …
It’s the economy not rates that drive housing. No buyers despite lower rates https://t.co/0L1fac8UrK — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 26, 2024 🇺🇸 US consumer confidence present situation 9-month change. In #recession territory! Chart: @MikaelSarwe pic.twitter.com/H54kkPIfbm — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) September 26, 2024
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Is an economy based on the wealth effect generated by front-running the front-runners really that stable? So the entire economy depends on the stock market going up as punters front-run the Fed–and this is not only fine, it’s optimal, the best arrangement the world has ever seen. On which ethereal …
You can se Trump is engaged and genuinely cares about this guy and his business…..baller. — Richard Cowan (@TexaninThailand) September 24, 2024
Who at @CNN thought it was a good idea to give her a microphone? — Jon Miltimore (@miltimore79) September 19, 2024 h/t Coastie Patriot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3sCMX0dvbY h/t Captain Woodrow F. Call
Europe grapples with its decline Americans consumed by their country’s election cycle may be struck by the mood across the pond. In the apocalyptic rhetoric of Republicans, the American economy is the proverbial sick man of the West, hampered by rampant inflation, battered by tides of plundering illegal migrants and doomed by the leftist schemes …
Expect a major downgrade in both stocks and the economy. 50 bps cut with stocks at 200% Market cap/GDP 🤷♂️ — Anthony Sarich 🇦🇺🇭🇷 (@AnthonySarich) September 18, 2024 The current ratio of the total U.S. stock market value to GDP, known as the Buffett Indicator, is around 202% as of June 30, 2024. Buffett is …
"Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households, businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23, for only the third time since 1947. The other two times were 2008-11 and 2020." Gavekal pic.twitter.com/jWUcaT66Md — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 18, 2024 BREAKING: Total consumer credit jumped by $25.5 …
You know things are getting bad when people are breaking up and cannot stay together because of how tough it is to find a good job these days. We saw a lot of this during the 2008 recession lots of unemployment lots of divorce lots of family issues and it seems like it’s happening all …
The bad economic news is piling up, and Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates – even though the inflation fight hasn’t ended. Among the dozens of reports, briefings and updates you’ll find just one number will tell you everything you need to know about the economy… From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group This …
by Michael Hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to persuade the American people to vote for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. But ultimately two things are probably going to matter more than anything else. Millions of Americans will be basing their votes on how they currently feel about the economy and who they …
1. CRE: Latest data reveals weak loan growth and higher loan delinquencies. Auto loan: Prime and subprime auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Student loan: Biden administration's order of one-year moratorium- student loan not reported to credit reports ends next month. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) September 9, 2024 3. Problems remain concentrated in offices where vacancy rates …
Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, mentioned that while employers may not be laying off many workers, they are indeed cutting back through other methods such as reducing hours and shifting workers to part-time as the economy slows. Labor costs have long been a significant issue for employers.They will continue to try …
