Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
You know the war is going bad when they are easing sanctions on Russia. — Andy froemel (@FroemelAndy) March 6, 2026 The Axial Post @TheAxialPost The Russian Oil Concession to India The Move: US issued 30-day temporary waiver allowing stranded Russian oil cargoes to be sold to India . The Context: – India holds crude …
China just fired the first shot in the next liquidity war, and the Fed will have no choice but to follow. The Chinese central bank is about to surpass the Fed to become the largest central bank in the world again. The PBOC has officially resumed quantitative easing. And I believe it’s only a matter …
Are U.S. Treasuries finally as risky as stocks? First, what is a Treasury? When you buy a U.S. Treasury bond, you’re lending money to the government. They promise to pay you interest (called a coupon) and then return your money when the bond matures. Safe, right? Except prices can swing if yields change. — StockMarket.News …
The global easing cycle continues pic.twitter.com/2umptKG11j — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 18, 2025 Gold is increasingly on the radar of Wall Street heavyweights and influential economists. Just in the last 2 months: Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine) calls gold a "Flight-to-quality asset". Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) says "Gold is the new gold". David Einhorn (Greenlight) notes that… …
Global money supply is exploding higher, led by the #PBOC. Next stop for #Bitcoin is 120k. Mark my words boys mark them well. pic.twitter.com/pPlk2eaapR — James Choi (@JC_Investment) May 7, 2025 Boom. Breaking news: China to cut a series of rates: Reserve ratio requirement by 0.5ppt7-day reverse repo to 1.4% (from 1.5%)Structural tools rate by …
by David Haggith The Fed goosed the stock market today with another Powell put, but in a slightly slier manner. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, offered some pretty peculiar surprises at the Fed’s FOMC meeting today, but not in interest policy. While the Fed held steady on actual interest rate policy as everyone was certain it …
Kamala Harris and Mayorkas changed the definition of illegal immigrant. There are no more “illegal immigrants” because they’re being let in, en masse, legally as “undocumented migrants.” You can download the CBP One app and provided you have no sufficient documentation, they’ll let you in. Kamala Harris and Mayorkas changed the definition of illegal immigrant. …
“The extensive bond purchases contributed to price stability in an era of low inflation, but they were also associated with numerous side effects in financial markets…" Source: https://t.co/aDTNntExHX — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 1, 2024
Global net liquidity is exploding. This means unprecedented monetary destruction, economic secular stagnation, and risky assets' expansion. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/sA1jRMjWSC — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) September 29, 2024 #recession … Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition From $238 billion to $465 billion in just two weeks during the run up to September quarter-end. 👀 pic.twitter.com/JNDe0J0r7n — Invariant …
According to Bloomberg data, 10 out of 11 major central banks are expected to slash rates in the second half of this year, the most in 16 years. The list of the 11 countries includes the United States, India, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Norway, the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan. As shown …
The Empire State is considering relaxing qualifications for thousands of jobs to hire migrants who have legal work status in the US. New York officials are looking to create “transitional titles” to allow migrants who have received federal work authorization to work in the state workforce, according to a memo being circulated by the state …
The Yahoo Finance article sheds light on a concerning decline in consumer confidence, especially among American families earning under $100,000. While the inflation rate has ostensibly dropped to 3.4% in December 2023 from a peak of 7.2% in December 2021, the alleviation is not translating into relief for many households. The culprit? Skyrocketing interest rates. …
Some pretty startling numbers regarding planned layoffs in 2024 according to a recent survey Buckle up. https://t.co/Q5Q0w0rmfA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 10, 2024 Massive Layoffs Are Coming in 2024 Mass layoffs are in store for 2024, and it might end up affecting nearly half of companies, according to a new poll. That’s the latest …
The market is literally bullying the @federalreserve – i.e., loosening financial conditions w/ "core" CPI at 2x the @federalreserve's target. This, as @elerianm correctly stated, is what happens when you have a communication problem at the Fed (as we currently do). This is (very)… — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) December 21, 2023 Perhaps. But that’s: (a) …
Everywhere You Look, Rates Traders Are Piling Into Rate-Cut Bets (Bloomberg) — Positioning for an economic hard landing and aggressive Federal Reserve easing next year is spreading across the US interest-rate markets. In the cash bond market, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Treasury client survey, conducted weekly since 1991, found that the most active investors in …
Bank of Japan’s paper loss on JGB holdings grows to record $71bn Higher rates could erode finances if central bank moves toward easing exit TOKYO — The Bank of Japan’s unrealized losses on its Japanese government bond holdings swelled to 10.5 trillion yen ($71.2 billion) at the end of September, according to financial statements released …
I guess many had started buying in bonds with this in mind. But the impending recession just kept getting postponed…would have definitely hurted those fresh positions… — J (@Being__J) October 6, 2023
So many economies around the world are in completely opposite situations. Some central banks are cutting rates, some are pausing, and others are hiking. The next few months are going to be really interesting. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 28, 2023 Eurozone credit growth …
US consumer confidence is soaring to a two-year high as a robust job market and easing inflation foster renewed optimism. pic.twitter.com/hbr0xT2Agm — Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) July 25, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-in-two-years-155813210.html We shall see how confident many consumers are when student loan payments resume. My bet is that stores valuing low prices will be able to ride …