Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
US 2s vs 30s gap widest since 2022. Yield curves keep steepening globally, particularly driven by 30-year yields. In the US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022. pic.twitter.com/elg9pKFavG — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 28, 2025 Japan's 30yr is now up almost 1ppt YTDUS 30yr +12bps pic.twitter.com/5rIOLSCFK8 …
Market runs on manufactured momentum and ticking clock… $VIX puts are being bought just before $SPY ramps like what's shown below to suppress vol further and cause an automatic rise in equity prices. This also happened yesterday and Monday. They didn't need to do this last week as the momentum trade was on its own. …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the other hand, once yield curves …
Mortgage rates are now officially TRIPLE where they were just 2 years ago. However, the median sales price of a home continues to rise. Affordability is so bad that not even investors can afford to buy. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 17, 2023 US …
The bearish curve steepening we feared is fast becoming reality. The impact on risk assets occurs less through the textbook arbitrage channel and more via negative effect on collateral and hence on #liquidity @au_shareplicity @johnauthers https://t.co/VuMvsqnJQ4 — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) August 14, 2023 It's not the height of rates that destroys the economy but …
by BoatSurfer600 As rates rise and the economy slows, banks tighten their credit lending standards out of fear of higher loan losses. If the credit to the economy dries up more than anticipated, then the slowdown might accelerate. A credit-starved economy is no bueno Source: Sagar Singh Yield curves around the world are inverting the …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy was sitting high on the global mountain top before Covid. Then Covid struck, The Federal Reserve and Congress went wild with stimulus spending and inflation went wild. This is Biden Country, a feeble shell of this once great nation. As The Fed tries to counter the years of excess monetary stimulus pre …