Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via notayesmanseconomics In a link between my personal and blogging life a friend departed on a business trip to Argentina the weekend before last and she asked what I thought of the economic situation there? Below is how I replied. The story starts yesterday with this from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent This is quite …
Here is the set-up going into tomorrow and next week: Two weeks ago on Friday Trump pounded stocks lower in the morning by threatening to escalate the trade war with China. Last week, there were concerns over a renewed bank run. And early this week there was a momentum stock crash. Each time the lower …
by Jesse Colombo The U.S. Dollar Index is testing a key technical level that has triggered major rebounds in the past—making this an important setup for commodities and precious metals investors to watch closely. The U.S. dollar has fallen sharply since the start of the year, which has boosted commodity prices—especially metals like gold and silver—due …
🎯 Meloni has unequivocally stated that Italy’s relationship with the United States is its most critical partnership, emphasizing the strategic importance of transatlantic ties. This declaration indirectly intensifies pressure on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,… — bob gonzales (@BobgonzaleBob) March 28, 2025
A projected $500 billion drop in tax revenue means the government will have to sell even more bonds, adding pressure to an already strained market. With the deficit already at $1.8 trillion, this increases bond issuance by roughly 27%, pushing supply up while demand remains uncertain. That could send long-term interest rates higher, especially if …
A record-breaking wave of retail investor buying has just been witnessed—an unprecedented surge that eclipses the previous peak from early 2022, a period notorious for marking a major market top. Now, this trend is showing unmistakable signs of fatigue. History is offering a chilling reminder: a similar pattern once unfolded, culminating in a brief blow-off …
Imagine having dreams as big as the sky but facing a mountain of student debt as you step into the world of higher education. It’s a tough choice, and according to a recent New York Times article, some high school graduates are saying, “No, thanks!” Whether it’s hitting pause, dropping out, or giving college the …
Recent indicators suggest a potential shift as M2 money supply contracts sharply. While inflation has been the norm in recent years, notable declines in asset prices, such as a 25% drop in used car prices and a 50% decrease in egg prices in 2023, raise questions about deflation risks. Examining historical patterns, instances of deflation …
For decades, car ownership has been a trademark of the American lifestyle, with vehicles becoming symbols of freedom, independence and even rebellion, as well as a necessity. But in 2024, the country’s legendary love story with the automobile appears to have reached a crucial point of potential no return, as cars have become unaffordable to …
The car market in a nut-shell: 1) Interest rates at 20-year highs. 2) Consumer savings depleted. 3) Vehicle prices slowly normalizing (with some exceptions). And yet… sales volumes are fine. The real looming issue in the industry right now? Undoubtedly margin compression.… — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) November 21, 2023