Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
BREAKING: New home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped -4.6% year-over-year in April. Existing home prices fell -6.8%, after a -7.3% drop in March. Chinese home prices have now declined for nearly 4 years STRAIGHT. Meanwhile, property investment declined -10.3%… pic.twitter.com/ke4rwT1otC — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 21, 2025
Private Credit is where the next systemic financial risk is going to emerge from. Just a complete scam industry. Fake valuations. Pretending things are par when they are clearly not. Lending to garbage companies. And… it’s all being financed by debt from commercial banks (since banks can’t lend like this anymore after 2008). Private credit …
How f*cked up is Canada? This f*cked. Why wait for care when you can k1ll yourself sooner. pic.twitter.com/qH1UmAKgxV — Ryan Gerritsen🇨🇦🇳🇱 (@ryangerritsen) May 19, 2025 Canada’s Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) program is set to expand in 2027, allowing individuals whose sole underlying condition is mental illness to seek euthanasia. The policy has sparked intense …
by Michael National governments around the world are collectively more than 100 trillion dollars in debt. The United States accounts for about 35 percent of that total, China accounts for about 16 percent of that total, and Japan accounts for about 10 percent of that total. For a long time, national governments were able to fund …
“Re the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don’t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders of the bonds to suffer losses from …
The global financial landscape is shifting rapidly, with major economies facing mounting pressures. The United States, Japan, and China are each grappling with economic challenges that could reshape markets in the coming months. Investors are watching closely as debt concerns, monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions unfold. The United States saw its credit rating downgraded …
Unemployment 20-29 (2 year associate academic):.6%Unemployment 20-29 (2 year vocational):5.2%#econtwitter further thoughts? — Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) May 15, 2025 College was supposed to be the ticket. The path. The safety net that guaranteed something better. Parents took out loans. Students borrowed more. Politicians promised it was the only way to get ahead. And now, those …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are companies going to be able to afford this? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 14, 2025 …
Total household debt just hit a record $18.2T, up $167B in Q1. This isn’t prosperity. It’s survival—fueled by credit. Households aren’t thriving. They’re borrowing just to stay afloat. pic.twitter.com/jvqIHKvews — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) May 14, 2025 Total household debt increased by $167 billion in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion pic.twitter.com/FQSWotqNKD — Amanda Goodall …
Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It’s gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking …
What TF is up with the Taiwan Dollar? pic.twitter.com/NLS1yDni51 — Nobody Special (@JG_Nuke) May 5, 2025 Pretty succinct overview of what’s going on. If the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis happened because Asian banks had too much USD liability mismatch, this time it seems they have too much USD asset mismatch. And no one on this …
End the Federal Reserve Comparing Costco Prices for the same items from 1997 vs 2025 – Mac and cheese $7.89 -> $14.84– Cheesecake $10.99 -> $19.99– Chimichangas $8.99 -> $17.99– Butter $5.49 -> $13.49– Hotdogs $5.89 -> $16.49– Ribeye Steak $13.60 -> $55.61 pic.twitter.com/AZxOBf5vhC — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 3, 2025 Read this very …
ESPN faces intense backlash after hiring Shannon Sharpe, despite a history of major red flags.
by Michael China is normally the largest export market for U.S. agricultural products. In a typical year, we sell tens of billions of dollars worth of agricultural products to the Chinese, but now that door has been slammed shut thanks to the extremely high tariffs that China has imposed on U.S. imports. If that door is …
American ranchers have been battered by multinational corporations flooding the food supply chain with cheap beef imports from third-world countries, much of it ending up in supermarkets without consumers ever realizing it. Now, in a move to protect both consumers from flesh-eating parasites and support mom-and-pop ranchers, the Department of Agriculture warned Mexico on Saturday …
America’s pensions are in big trouble. Many are underfunded vs their payout commitments. Many are being recklessly managed, overinvested in far too speculative assets for the safety of their constituents. Ted Siedle is a former SEC attorney. His firm, Benchmark Financial Services, Inc. has pioneered over $1 trillion in forensic investigations of the money management …
The Silent Banking Crisis: Understanding the $482 Billion Time Bomb U.S. banks are currently sitting on $482 billion in unrealized losses on their investment securities primarily long-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought during the 0% interest rate era. This figure has jumped 33% in just the last quarter, making it the worst paper loss environment …
The world has changed in unimaginable ways from the time the oldest baby boomers were born in the late 1940s to the 21st-century birth dates of Gen Z. From the end of the Cold War and 9/11 to the advent of the internet and social media, the fast-changing last few decades have undoubtedly left unique …
by confoundedinterest17 The good news? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is normalizing to January 2022 levels. One the mortgage side, adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) share is the highest since the financial crisis (2008). As Trump continues to stand up for Americans and China (and Democrats) continues to fight, the S&P 500 index lags MSCI …
Luke Gromen, Founder & President of Forest For The Trees joins James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth in discussing the outlook for economic growth, the U.S. dollar, inflation, monetary policy, and gold.
by confoundedinterest17 ARMs?? Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have climbed to the highest origination volume share since 2008 as the yield curve steepens and bank lending demand picks up. The majority of ARM lending goes to high credit borrowers with jumbo-sized loans, which many banks see as a good fit to keep in their portfolios as they are …
The Trump administration’s aggressive deportation practices, whether sending alleged gang members to a notorious El Salvadoran prison or rounding up foreign students for opposing Israel’s war in Gaza, have led many pundits and others to raise the alarm about a Constitutional crisis and the evisceration of due process. But as Jimmy points out, this crisis …
US consumers are exhausted: Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next 5 years are at record lows. Americans in the bottom-third income group now see record low ~18% chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes in 5 years, By comparison, 5 years ago this… pic.twitter.com/ZVjiYAryp9 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 15, 2025 "More …
The economy is facing a storm of contradictions, and it’s beginning to show its cracks. As tariffs weigh heavily, the fear of inflation is creeping back into the market, even as the dollar is in freefall. The result? A liquidity problem that’s raising short-term yields and strengthening the yen—something we haven’t seen in years, all …
Most of what you see in the headlines is not life itself. It’s a lens trained on the rarest of moments, zoomed in and sharpened for emotional effect. The world you live in, the one where you make breakfast, walk the dog, or wait in traffic—that is reality. The news, by design, mostly isn’t. Every …
by Graham Summers, MBA Everything hinges on bonds. Forget the White House, forget the Treasury, forget the Fed. The bond market is in the driver’s seat. And if bonds don’t settle down, either A) the Trump administration will be forced to abandon its trade war or B) the Fed will be forced to intervene. As I wrote …
German Economy Ministry: Due to declining orders and US trade policy, a noticeable weakening in the industrial cycle is to be expected in the coming months — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) April 14, 2025 United States President Donald Trump’s trade policies are raising the chances that the next financial crisis will occur “sooner than expected,” Germany’s incoming …
FHA delinquencies are skyrocketing, 15.11% of all FHA mortgage purchase loans are now DELINQUENT. This excludes the loans artificially brought current by placing the missed payments to the back of the loan. In 4Q2007 FHA overall delinquencies were LOWER at 13.05 percent (vs… pic.twitter.com/WYuCYOKSFq — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 8, 2025
