Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The German steel sector, facing a substantial budget shortfall due to a court ruling, is sounding an alarm on the nation’s industrial transformation. With more than 40 billion euros ($44 billion) in planned investments now under scrutiny, the sector is grappling with a loss of confidence and growing uncertainty. How long before the steel industry …
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As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
As economic indicators paint a foreboding picture, the descent of oil prices in gold terms serves as a stark warning, signaling the potential for a hard landing. The alarming reality is further underscored by a concerning 30% rise in business bankruptcies in the United States during the twelve-month period ending September 30, 2023, according to …
DC Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Building Sells at 77% Discount, Plunging $72M from 2016 Price. The $21M transaction is over $50M less than 2019, with the previous owner, a co-working company, defaulting on a $65M loan. Amidst reports of owners surrendering keys to lenders, the city is in the early stages …
In 2023, major financial institutions such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Farmers Insurance, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Bank of Nova Scotia, and RBC have collectively announced layoffs, totaling more than 20,000 employees according to Forbes. These layoff announcements contribute to the ongoing struggles in the US banking sector, with bank stocks …
In the midst of a severe recession in the freight market, marked by an oversupply of trucks and a scarcity of freight, the logistics industry faces a wave of bankruptcies, closures, and layoffs, with notable companies like Yellow Corp. and Convoy being casualties. This downturn, contrary to some analysts’ expectations, is not a mere reversion …
via Nikkei: BEIJING — China is struggling to reverse its declining births, with some estimates expecting drops of more than 10% this year to below 9 million, as young people remain wary of their economic prospects even after the end of the country’s stringent zero-COVID restrictions. “China’s newborns have declined by 40% over the past …
Inflation in essential areas, including car insurance, car repair, transportation, rent, homeowner costs, and food away from home, far exceeds the 3.2% CPI headline rate, challenging the notion of a broader decline in prices and signaling an ongoing affordability crisis for consumers. While CPI inflation is at 3.2%, inflation is much higher in many basic …
Escalating delinquencies in commercial real estate loans, a shrinking S&P 500 real estate sector, and plummeting property values paint a dire picture, hinting at an imminent banking crisis. With soaring mortgage payments and declining retail sales, the signs point to an urgent and potential economic crisis. Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have …
Report: During Spring Banking Crisis, Banks Borrowed Over $1 Trillion from Federal Home Loan Banks — $100 Billion More than During the Crash of 2008 By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 8, 2023 ~ Yesterday, the regulator of the Federal Home Loan Bank system, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), released a report on its recommended changes …
The signs of an impending auto loan debt crisis are becoming increasingly apparent, as noted by AutoMoBlog. Wall Street’s lucrative practice of selling car loans to individuals with limited capacity to repay is fueling concerns, mirroring practices reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Simultaneously, the rapid increase in defaults on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) is …
Americans could pay up to $451 billion to care for migrants who entered the US illegally, but have been released into the country or escaped from custody, according to a new report due out Monday from House Republicans and obtained exclusively by The Post. “Every day, millions of American taxpayer dollars are spent on costs …
Bloomberg’s report on the Fed’s apprehensions regarding US commercial office space and interest rates raises alarming flags. Moody’s staggering estimate of potential unrealized losses, reaching a colossal $650 billion within US banks’ securities portfolios, points to an imminent and deeply concerning crisis looming over the banking sector. The Fed sees risks for banks from US …
In 2008, the European Union had a larger GDP ($16.3T) than the US ($14.8T). 15 years later, the US’s GDP is $25.4T, while Europe’s is basically unchanged at $16.6T. Both economies were on par until the GFC, but the US just rebounded stronger during the 2010s tech boom. https://t.co/C69jCMJIQQ pic.twitter.com/SBG532qnqi — Jack Raines (@Jack_Raines) November …
by OddFellow1066 Sounds to me like Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and “portfolio insurance” are back. From the Wall Street Journal (7 November 2023) Banks are unloading credit risk on private equity funds with devices called “synthetic risk transfer” notes. By such de-risking, the banks avoid higher capital charges as would be required under Basel II …
The current financial landscape reveals concerning trends for the business world. With less than half of S&P 500 companies surpassing revenue estimates, the performance is at its weakest point in the last four years. Moreover, the declining percentage of buybacks as a portion of the $SPX market capitalization in the third quarter is a worrying …
The DTCC’s decision to double margin requirements for mortgage-backed securities, alongside the recent MBS VaR stress testing increase, reveals growing concerns. As the 10-year Treasury yield experienced a sharp drop over the past two weeks, accelerated by weakening manufacturing and labor market data, the financial landscape is becoming increasingly uncertain. 🚨#DTCC DOUBLES THE MARGIN REQUIREMENTS …
by Chris Black There are actually more unemployed people of working age as a percentage now than the height of The Great Depression. While the ’70s stagflation was bad, the country still had a vibrant middle class and the process of gutting our infrastructure was just getting started. Main Street was still alive in the …
Central banks globally bought 337 tons of gold in Q3 2023, part of a broader trend. China, the top global gold producer, purchased 181 tons during the first nine months of 2023, contributing to a total of 800 tons acquired by central banks worldwide. This aligns with China’s strategy to reduce its reliance on the …
Remember when they told you that it was subprime borrowers that caused the 2008 housing crisis? They lied https://t.co/8MmwYOoN70 pic.twitter.com/UO2J54qSEJ — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) November 5, 2023
Compared with Europe the US is in really good shape. Euro makes out 57% of DXY, this famous End of the Dollar must be really imminent pic.twitter.com/FvHBLV0C2u — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) November 4, 2023 The European Entitlements Crisis would likely manifest as a significant financial challenge where governments struggle to meet their obligations to …
Biden’s Dept of Fake Data persists in downplaying the dire jobs situation, risking the stability of the economy. Job openings are plummeting, mirroring past financial crises, as the consumer’s dwindling savings set off alarming warnings about impending economic turmoil. Biden's Dept of Fake Data doing its thing: August jobs revised down by 62,000, from +227K …
The world stands on the precipice of a daunting financial crisis as global debt skyrockets, reaching an astonishing $235 trillion. Over the past 15 years, this sum has surged by 32%, propelled by the allure of low borrowing costs. It is a ticking time bomb that has pushed countries, including economic giants like the U.S. …
US economy is nearing a sharp economic downturn Current yield curve steepening is one of the sharpest on record since 1990 Such a move has typically occurred right before or during a recession pic.twitter.com/RPs5ht81jA — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 2, 2023 We are again in the everything rally mode! Gold, crude, equities, bonds and commodities. …
Higher US debt deficits can potentially contribute to inflation if the government resorts to printing more money to cover its deficit, which can increase the money supply and, in turn, lead to rising prices. Prominent figures like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and investor Stanley Druckenmiller are sounding alarms about the unprecedented economic challenge the …
Interesting bit of info, the Asian Financial Crisis began in July 1997 but only became a major economic crisis when things worsened in November. https://t.co/L8TZwJ1fgM — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 31, 2023 Exactly. They have billions of US Treasuries they can sell, so there's no reason to let their currency rise now unless that's the plan. …
The chart of the month. pic.twitter.com/CqoTsgzPKl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 31, 2023 Bank Stocks have fallen to their lowest prices in more than 3 years, even surpassing the lows of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March pic.twitter.com/OfHUBm6c92 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 29, 2023 Is Powell done hiking? The 10 yield says no, but …
By Graham Summers, MBA The fate of the stock market is in the hands of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week. Every quarter the Treasury announces its financing needs via its Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA). In the QRA, the Treasury announces: 1) How much debt it will need to issue total to fund the government …