A hub for independent voices and hard truths
⚠️The US labor market is CONTRACTING: The US economy added just +584,000 jobs in 2025, the weakest year for hiring outside of a recession since 2003. Shockingly, ~85% of job gains occurred by April, with the job market contracting over the final 3 months of the year.… pic.twitter.com/vV6AdaLHD9 — Global …
via WSB I’m not talking about AI spending going away, but rather the ability of companies to continue to grow their spending on AI each year. If you look at a company like Google, their trailing free cash flow seems strong at 66.7B. but that figure doesn’t take into account …
It looks like tough times could be on the horizon. ADP just posted its first negative print since March 2023: private payrolls dropped 33,000 in June. The labor market is contracting. pic.twitter.com/0YlIHDNwSz — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 6, 2025 Something is happening in the banking system. The Fed's …
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — …
WARNING: Small business earnings are contracting sharply This is typically seen heading into economic downturns pic.twitter.com/pxrdn3cxzP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 Small business earnings are sharply contracting, a clear warning sign of an impending economic downturn. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has remained below its 50-year average …
German PPI is contracting at recessionary levels… pic.twitter.com/gzdKkB17od — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) November 20, 2023 🇩🇪 Germany weighs suspending 'inflexible' debt brake as coalition cracks show German Economy Minister Robert Habeck on Monday criticised sticking to what he called the country's "inflexible" debt brake and took a swipe at Finance …
Last time was 2007-08. Recession or worse is all but certain. Bank Credit is contracting for only the 2nd time in history. The other time was during the Global Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/nQhX7AOgA7 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 16, 2023 The Fed is playing with fire here Monetary policy is the tightest …
Warning: Bank credit is offically contracting This has only happened during the Financial Crisis Buckle up pic.twitter.com/QpF0evOdNs — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1709918710310338758 U.S. Mortgage Rates surpassed 8% this week for the first time in more than 23 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/hha6FTuwsB — Barchart (@Barchart) October 5, 2023 *via …
Analysts are repeating the same mistake made during the 2008 Financial Crisis by revising earnings upwards despite a contraction in leading economic indicators, raising major warning signals. The US is experiencing deficit spending near 10% of GDP, reaching levels last seen in 2008, yet the Fed maintains that there is …
M2 is contracting at the deepest level. EVER. pic.twitter.com/1IKob2FD4T — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 21, 2023 More Respect the Lag 👇 pic.twitter.com/P1eXuhBN01 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 21, 2023 You can see the Bear 🐻 Market bounces in the red line 👇 Or, last year was the bottom. I'm …
Richmond Fed manufacturing index showed the sector contracting in the district for the 10th month out of the last 12. This data looks more stagflationary then a substantial recession, still. Actual -9, previous -8 pic.twitter.com/D82XqiDoRm — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 25, 2023
Household’s networth is sharply contracting The last 2 times this happened, a recession followed pic.twitter.com/guI3dwPd8k — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 21, 2023 🚨🚨🚨 Current home prices with current mortgage rates don’t make sense at the same time. One or the other has to come down. Either housing price decline or …
For CMBS, it’s 2007 Right now is the bargaining stage for CRE—assets quietly being liquidated to meet redemptions, balance sheets tidying up, the industry stoically battening the hatches All trying not to panic Dry powder? Yes But there’s a storm on the horizon https://t.co/y6jVEw3C1k — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 17, …
