Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Wow. Consumer confidence for those ages 35-54 years old fell in January to the lowest since November 2013 pic.twitter.com/WjTRLPDdnI — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) January 27, 2026 January Consumer Confidence Index from @Conferenceboard fell sharply to 84.5 vs 91.0 est. & 94.2 prior (revised up from 89.1), lowest since 2014; present situation also tanked, 113.7 vs …
its giving: pic.twitter.com/OPb2FNvqhs — st3ph (@st3phdoteth) January 19, 2026
by Michael I knew that I wasn’t imagining things. There are so many times when I am shopping for groceries that I see a product that seems like it has doubled or tripled in price over the years. I am sure that many of you have experienced the exact same thing. Well, now we have confirmation …
via Mike Maharrey Consumer borrowing cratered further in November, likely reflecting growing consumer stress, as price inflation persists and credit cards become maxed out. That’s bad news for a U.S. economy that depends on consumers buying stuff. Persistent price inflation forced Americans to blow through their savings and then turn to credit cards to make …
US household debt service is now ~30% of disposable income — the highest since 2008. That means the average American is spending 1 out of every 3 dollars they earn after taxes just to service debt. This is how consumer slowdowns actually start. pic.twitter.com/OXVAKBnqBh — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) January 9, 2026 On Thursday, WalletHub released …
Strong consumers do not flee bulk stores for bargain bins. Small business employment shrank again in December according to Paychex. We will get a clearer picture once we get the ADP and payroll data later this week. pic.twitter.com/KmzIqUJ6fG — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) January 6, 2026 Riddle me this. If the US consumer is so strong …
The economy might hum along on paper, but real demand and real buying power are trapped at the top. US consumer spending is extremely concentrated among high-income households: Households in the top 20% of the income distribution now reflect ~39% of all spending on goods and services. Their concentration is even higher in new vehicle …
An initial reading of third-quarter gross domestic product showed the US economy expanded at an inflation-adjusted annualized rate of 4.3%, a far faster pace than the 3.8% recorded in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. That’s the fastest growth rate in two years. An acceleration in consumer spending, up 3.5% from …
But hey, inflation is down amirite pic.twitter.com/TO4OcggCT3 — ❝ 𝕵𝖚𝖉𝖆𝖘 ❞ (@jpegjudas) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 November's CPI report "should not be taken literally …
People say they feel broke and miserable, then swipe the card anyway. That is not confidence, that is muscle memory mixed with denial. Low layoffs and steady paychecks keep the spending alive even while people feel uneasy and stretched. This usually means the slowdown shows up late and hits harder, after everyone already told you …
$JPM says consumers look fragile it’s down 4% But $spy $qqq is flat Genius market 不见棺材不落泪 pic.twitter.com/YZRdHt01SY — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) December 9, 2025 Worsening Banks will be forced to start raising mortgage rates soon as funding costs and margins worsen. pic.twitter.com/lw0gP6y9Xt — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 9, 2025 $GS is predicting a steady decline …
NY Fed: The share of households who think their financial situation will be better in a year matched a new 2-year low in Nov. Fewer than 26.5% of households expect their situation to improve. We were at this level in May 2025 after 'Liberation Day.'https://t.co/TKTzxEEcRK pic.twitter.com/UahZNaUPJL — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) December 8, 2025 Mortgage delinquency …
Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis. It's not Systemic Leverage; it's Household Arithmetic. My new memo breaks down the structural squeeze: why the 2026 economy faces a consumer solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) December 3, 2025 This Black Friday, shoppers paid 7% more for electronics, …
Note: “Weak consumer spending” refers to store expectations before the season started. Consumer spending ended up being high which is why Black Friday set a new record No paywall: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seasonal-hiring-offers-little-reprieve-for-labor-market-woes-110044972.html Plenty of Americans are expected to pour into stores and fill online carts this holiday shopping season. Fewer may be able to pick up seasonal work …
Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, …
.@VP: "This economy was not harmed in 10 months. It took a deliberate 4-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers… over regulating, overtaxing… As much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of… pic.twitter.com/ycgvkBPftW — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 20, 2025 And …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some better news for the UK on the inflation front. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September. So an improvement although a nuanced one if one moves onto the monthly figure. On a monthly basis, CPI …
“Meanwhile sectors like AI, quantum, nuclear, flying cars are going parabolic. The disconnect has never been bigger. This won’t end well. Just look at the YTD bloodbath in major consumer names. $WEN – Wendy’s: -48% $CMG – Chipotle: -48% $LULU – Lululemon: -48% $TGT -Target: -35% $HPQ – HP: -30% $PYPL – PayPal: -30% $UPS …
42 % drop in home sales is enormous. The Chinese consumer has stopped spending. China is the # 2 largest economy in the world. It’s housing market is the largest asset class in the world. US is already in an undeclared recession. Watch 1st 3 to 5 minutes for main details. AC
Trump ‘to lower some tariffs’ amid steep drop in consumer sentiment #MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) November 12, 2025 BREAKING: Trump says he is going to "lower some tariffs." pic.twitter.com/FPQD6svdzk — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 12, 2025 Why lower tariffs if the economy is doing so good with them? https://thehill.com/business/5595217-consumer-sentiment-plummets-november/ Consumer sentiment plunged to near-record lows in …
by Mike Maharrey After barely rising in August, consumer debt grew modestly in September, likely reflecting growing debt stress on American households. The U.S. economy depends on consumers buying stuff. Persistent price inflation forced Americans to blow through their savings and then turn to credit cards to make ends meet. Credit card spending has slowed …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, What’s the matter with these people? Trump says the economy is humming. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary survey results for November 2025. Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current …
The inflation has been bad for the past 4 years and Trump made it worse. Never forget!! pic.twitter.com/xlWSoJVdOj — Caroline Kliby (@SchnurreZueri) November 10, 2025 Did you think Trump would wave his magic wand to fix the disaster that happened over the past 4 years? 😄 pic.twitter.com/Mtsz9sh1xb — Fedup American 🇺🇲💪 (@Fedup026) November 10, 2025 …
There’s already a notable drop in consumption, truck fright in the US is down 17% YoY, while shipping containers inbound from China is down 15% YoY. JUST IN: Powell says job creation is "close to zero" due to AI — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 7, 2025 The top 10% of U.S. households hold 87% of all …
The economy is booming, if you are the tow truck driver. 00:00 Car Repos Explode to New Highs 07:17 Use Vehicle Sales Just Crashed By 25% 08:58 Real Life Viewer Inflation Story 11:55 Why the Dollar is Worthless Today 17:54 There’s No Way Out of the Mess The FED Created Subprime car buyers are …
The middle class is not seeing this. They are getting crushed. The banks are telling the real story as the Fed has injected billions into the Repo market. Why? Because the banks don’t have the cash reserves and consumers are living off their credit cards pushing cc debt to a record high. The rich are …
So jobs at Wendy’s is off the table now I guess. WARNING 🚨 BANKS BORROW $50 BILLION IN EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY FROM FED REPO WINDOW TODAY ‼️ 🚩 $20 BILLION THIS MORNING AND $30 BILLION MORE IN THE AFTERNOON ⚠️ CRISIS INCOMING 🚩 https://t.co/lLWvoC191y pic.twitter.com/ekoTvK6ewz — The Butcher of Wall Street Marcel Kalinovic (@BossBlunts1) October 31, …
It’s not just $CMG dropping. Even fast food is dropping Wendy’s has been smashed and they probably have the best food of them all. It all comes back to the consumer pic.twitter.com/wCURBOAS19 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 1, 2025 🚨MORGAN STANLEY: THE BULL MARKET IS ABOUT TO END. Andrew Slimmon says we’re in the late …
The market now reflects America right now. The 1% thrive while everyone else collapses because they’re tailored towards the middle class consumer. https://t.co/zayjxGcTJ9 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 31, 2025 iPhone growth in China is sliding, and margins are getting thinner.In the U.S., growth is modest — around 5%.The only silver lining? $AAPL isn’t burdened …
by confoundedinterest17 Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY. While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY. The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.