Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
As the Nasdaq Composite surges, outperforming the Russell 2000 by the largest margin since 1999, a sense of déjà vu from the dot-com bubble emerges. US equities near 70-year highs against global stocks, mirroring the exuberance of the past. While the possibility of another -85% drawdown is deemed unlikely, the striking similarities to the ‘back …
The financial outlook in the United States is deeply concerning. The bottom 20% of workers are allocating a staggering 80% of their income to essential goods like food, highlighting the stark inequality. Even those earning $150,000 or more a year are living paycheck to paycheck, relying on credit cards to make ends meet. Excess savings, …
The surge in retirement concerns is a glaring red flag that cannot be ignored. With the shadow of a possible recession looming, the stakes are higher than ever. In the face of persisting inflation and wavering consumer confidence, the Fed’s responsibility to secure a soft landing in 2024 becomes a dire necessity. After years of …
Vanguard, a global investment giant, has made a decisive move to withdraw from China by finalizing severance agreements with its remaining Shanghai staff, including country head Luo Dengpan. This exit follows a series of disputes, and China’s retaliatory measures, such as exit bans, raids, and arrests of foreigners, raise concerns about its investment climate. Vanguard …
Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, known for his market insights, is making significant moves by taking “massive” bullish positions in two-year notes. His actions come as growing worries about the economy loom on the horizon. Recent data showing a spike in youth unemployment during September and October is ringing alarm bells, historically indicative of past recessions. …
The current economic landscape is giving rise to growing concerns, with labor market deterioration, tightened lending standards by banks, and persistent inflation creating a potential stagflationary environment that could impact consumers’ purchasing power and lead to an economic slowdown. This situation, where interest rates rise while prices surge, is beginning to resemble past scenarios that …
Hmm 🧐 https://t.co/atJNbv7OUc — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 2, 2023 Having free speech on X is going to transform the 2024 election Clips like this one showing a mule dumping dozens of ballots in a dropbox will go *supernova* viral They won’t be able to suppress the truth like in 2020 and 2022 The fraud …
The NYPD will be on high alert at next week’s Greenwich Village Halloween Parade — where costumes can provide cover for extremists looking for “targets of opportunity” as the Israel-Hamas war rages, a cop memo says. But the gathering – known to draw about 60,000 people decked out in their spookiest and wildest get-ups – …
The situation in the Middle East is becoming increasingly complex and sensitive. There are concerns about the escalating conflict in the region, and some experts, like Colonel McGregor, warn of potential consequences if the situation continues to escalate. State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said that “we take a number of factors into consideration when making …
The rise in California’s unemployment rate from 3.8% to 4.7% is concerning, and it’s an indicator that the overall U.S. unemployment rate may also see an increase in the near future. Focus on California. Unemployment in that state was 3.8% and is now up to 4.7%. The US unemployment rate will follow it. pic.twitter.com/8nbJXLqNMf — …
The US national debt is outpacing economic growth, reaching $33 trillion this month, a stark increase from 70 years ago. As of this month, the total national debt stands at $33 trillion, approximately 124 times larger than it was 70 years ago. Read more: https://t.co/kmk1paPUkp — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 30, 2023 Nothing to see here, …
The passage of the Energy Act 2023 marks a significant development in the world of smart meters. Under this legislation, authorities gain the power to employ “reasonable force” to enter homes and install these meters, enabling them to exert control over energy consumption through a “load control system.” Non-compliance with this directive carries severe consequences, …
https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1717585214904418362 PetroChina Completes First International Crude Oil Trade in Digital Yuan: Report Chinese oil and gas company PetroChina (0857) has completed the first international crude oil trade using the country’s central bank digital currency (CBDC), the e-CNY, China Daily reported on Saturday. PetroChina bought 1 million barrels of crude oil settled in e-CNY, or …
The Euro Area’s economic woes deepen as it faces its lowest PMI levels in nearly three years, raising concerns of a looming recession. Euro zone banks are tightening credit standards due to worsening economic conditions and rising interest rates, resulting in significant credit tightening. #Eurozone #PMI 📉 👀https://t.co/kbzBfUfarU pic.twitter.com/2jLAhRwIZa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 24, …
The record-high subprime auto loan delinquency rate in September is deeply concerning, but it’s not just about the car market. The ripple effects extend to people struggling with their bills, families losing their means of transportation, and the broader economy. Many people have asked me to why I haven’t commented on the concerning auto loan …
Watching 👇 pic.twitter.com/L1DTMD0ueL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) October 16, 2023 Since 1992, in non-recession years, the average 9-month range for real growth is 1.5%. In other words, growth is always in motion, either cycling higher or sliding lower. This makes sense since the economy moves in a "cycle." 2/3 pic.twitter.com/iUU8BcNYk2 — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October …
"Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same time?" Scott Pelley asks President Biden. 60 Minutes, tonight. https://t.co/mEN4CWeXMW pic.twitter.com/b3FC9yQiVE — 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) October 15, 2023 QUESTION: “Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same …
Hedge Funds continue adding to their short U.S. Treasuries futures position which has now reached the largest short position in history pic.twitter.com/5VtUeUb7JQ — Barchart (@Barchart) October 11, 2023 I believe Bank of America is insolvent with a 6% Fed funds rate, leverage explodes. If your core capital is impaired, any losses on tertiary assets (credit …
Canada’s housing market is causing alarm bells, and with more homes listed, many folks just aren’t buying. The Bank of Canada’s financial review highlights debt worries and younger homeowners taking a step back from the market. https://t.co/IqveoD5lGS Harsh new reality for homeowners as listings rise and buyer-pool shrinksIn its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank …
“I’ve spent 35 years living in Washington; I don’t even recognize these people and what they’re doing” “Letting in 7 million people from the poorest countries in the world illegally and immediately putting them all on public benefits” “That right there will destroy the country, and they did it on purpose” 🔊 … Tucker Carlson …
https://t.co/QExVpGvRNS — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 6, 2023
Global economy’s glide to ‘soft landing’ gets bumpy as bond yields jump WASHINGTON, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Rocketing U.S. government bond yields that have led to a global jump in borrowing costs are raising new risks for economic policymakers hoping to lower inflation without triggering a major crisis. The world’s finance officials, who will gather …
President Biden showed his age at a campaign reception in Manhattan Wednesday — repeating statements about the 2017 Charlottesville riot and his decision to run for president in 2020 minutes apart and nearly word-for-word. During remarks at the gathering hosted by billionaire real estate heiress Amy Goldman Fowler, the 80-year-old president recounted how he was …
In a surprising development, the Biden administration has appointed James Clapper, John Brennan, and Paul Kolbe, all former intelligence officials, to a DHS “Homeland Intelligence Experts Group” responsible for addressing critical national security matters. This decision has raised eyebrows and concerns due to the history of these individuals. It’s worth noting that Clapper, Brennan, and …
American Foods Group LLC, conducting business under the name Green Bay Dressed Beef LCC, issued a recall for cases of raw ground beef items that may be contaminated with Shiga toxin-producing E. coli, according to a notice from the Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). The recalled products were shipped to distributors …
The American Geophysical Union’s display of ignorance regarding the scientific method raises questions about the level of competence within scientific organizations. The scientific method is fundamental to research and the acquisition of reliable knowledge, and any departure from it can lead to flawed conclusions and unreliable data. WE REALLY DO HAVE A CRISIS OF COMPETENCE: The …
Currently, existing mortgage holders in Sweden are making monthly capital repayments that are on par with the demand for new mortgage debt. This is quite an unusual scenario, and it carries bearish implications for house prices. In simpler terms, it suggests that the housing market is facing some headwinds. Adding to this, it’s worth noting …
First steps to a starvation crisis https://twitter.com/_/status/1689623633507827712 Scientist Admits the ‘Overwhelming Consensus’ on the Climate Change Crisis Is ‘Manufactured’ We are told climate change is a crisis, and that there is an “overwhelming scientific consensus.” “It’s a manufactured consensus,” climate scientist Judith Curry tells me. She says scientists have an incentive to exaggerate risk to …
Gas prices in the US have surged to an eight-month high after foreign suppliers slashed production, and experts are warning that a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could trigger further increases. On Friday the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $3.73-a-gallon, a sharp increase from $3.55 one month ago, though still well …
The Roosevelt Hotel in NYC has been sacked. 100s of non-citizens are sleeping outside the hotel due to no more rooms being available. This is what a "Sanctuary City" looks like. pic.twitter.com/epIym5vidK — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) July 29, 2023 Holy sh*t. Homeless illegals are sleeping all over Manhattan. Hotels are full. pic.twitter.com/LooMZJOpFA — End …