Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Fugazi World My wife and I own a small mom and pop candy and gift store in Northeast PA and although it wasn’t a complete bust, it was nothing like last year. The economy is toast folks, as most of you know. Main Stream Propaganda is propping up Creep Joe and the Dims but …
by TonyLiberty Mortgage demand drops to the lowest levels since 1996 as interest rates hit 8%. Mortgage applications for home purchases are down 22% compared to a year ago. Rising rates are pushing more potential homebuyers out of the market but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation. …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, there is a Dark Side to Federal stimulus! And it isn’t Dark Side of the Moon, but the dark side of who benefits from Federal stimulus. Its all about money. Example? Take Checkable Deposits of the to 1% (blue line) of wealth compared to the bottom 50% of wealth (red line) after The Fed …
Great chart from PPG Macro showing delinquency issues beyond the large lenders. It seems that small lenders are increasingly exposed to overly risky loans. Commercial real estate loans are yet another example. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2023 Throughout ‘23 US default risk …
by Dismal-Jellyfish If half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, the losses due to CRE distress would result in up to 58 smaller regional banks becoming insolvent in addition to 186 banks that would become insolvent just due to higher rates. Wut Mean?: The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is about $2.2 trillion …
"Why Airbnb owners are about to Sell" Revenue per available listing in Phoenix DOWN 48% in May compared to May last year.https://t.co/TEtoz1PGFY pic.twitter.com/GaVLoNBJS5 — John Wake (@JohnWake) June 26, 2023
by FATPEPPAPIGGAMER420 It looks like the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity is inching closer to an inverted yield curve. This typically happens before a recession, so the Fed may start cutting rates soon.