Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Gundlach says Fed will launch QE if yields hit 6%. Jeff Gundlach: "I believe at 6%, the Fed will announce QE (aka buying long term bonds) and when they do, you will have to be very quick, and buy as much as you possibly could, because it'll be just like when they announced buying corporate …
Goldman: If the outlook on AI capex were to change dramatically, a reversion of long-term growth estimates back to early 2023 levels would imply 15-20% downside to the current valuation multiple of the S&P 500 according to GS Research macro valuation model. An extreme scenario in which the hyperscalers cut capex back to 2022 levels …
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
Jim Zelter’s warning hit hard because he was not talking about a normal slowdown. He was describing the kind of break that wipes out entire business models and leaves companies with no way back. He spoke calmly, but the message underneath was anything but calm. “I think you’re going to get more secular distress than …
TRUMP FED CHAIR ANNOUNCEMENT LIKELY THIS WEEK Sources, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, say Trump has made his Fed Chair pick, with a strong chance of a reveal before Christmas. Trump confirmed on Air Force One that the announcement is coming soon, possibly Dec. 2–3.… pic.twitter.com/E7T1WnottL — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 1, 2025 Treasury just …
The standard of living in America is collapsing, and I don’t think most people realize how bad it’s gotten. From skyrocketing rent and grocery prices to cities that no longer feel safe, everyday people are struggling just to survive. In this video, we look at real stories from Americans who are watching their quality of …
For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October. ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started. Is the AI super bubble killing jobs? It’s …
Reminds of the movie the big short where the bulls were constantly talking about how the market will keep going up and encouraged everyone to buy as well. For those that dont know, tom lee's fund is down $4b. — Sam21 (@Sam21Degen) November 27, 2025
by Michael The elite aren’t stupid. They can see that our society is coming apart at the seams all around us, and so they want to live some place safe. In fact, for many among the elite security has become the number one priority when choosing a new home. Unfortunately, the vast majority of us …
MORGAN STANLEY: BUY THE DIP NOW FOR 2026 GAINS Michael Wilson says the current stock market pressure is a tactical correction caused by Fed liquidity jitters, NOT fundamental deterioration. 🔸 The damage “under the surface” suggests the correction is nearing its end. 🔸 Wilson remains highly bullish, expecting the Fed to cut rates and forecasting …
The Japanese carry trade has gone into reverse so it’s inevitable. Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a …
“Here’s what’s going on with the Fed and Wall Street right now and it’s kinda wild when you understand the full picture (save this). The Fed created something called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) back in 2021 as basically an emergency lending window for banks and dealers. Think of it like this, banks need cash …
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115579432475646132
via Phoenix Capital Research A tsunami of liquidity is coming to the financial system. Globally, central banks have begun the next major easing cycle with a jaw-dropping 320 rate cuts already implemented since the cycle began a mere 24 months ago. And every major central bank is now easing: The European Central Bank (ECB) has …
A crash and recession would do this market some good. 👀 👀 There’s a storm comin: pic.twitter.com/zpGmrN9Jtf — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 18, 2025 Scott Galloway fears a market crash or social crisis in the next year. A top finance professor recommends putting money into baseball cards Scott Galloway, the entrepreneur and NYU Stern marketing …
Current situation: 1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks 2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package 3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package 4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st 5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year 6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing …
Something feels off, and I think a lot of us can sense it. In this video, we’re diving into what so many Americans are waking up to right now: The uncomfortable truth that the systems we’ve trusted our whole lives might not be as solid as we thought. From money that’s backed by nothing but …
Hedge funds don’t fold this fast unless something ugly is happening under the surface. Today: Michael Burry shutting down hedge fund April 7: Tom Lee issues apology to investors 🤔 pic.twitter.com/uaobov5INq — The Market Stats (@TheMarketStats) November 13, 2025 CDS for the AI companies today… nothing to see here. pic.twitter.com/DhYEiOPdcb — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) November …
Even once the looming funding lapse for federal food assistance is resolved, hundreds of thousands of low-income Californians and millions more Americans could still lose their benefits in the coming months because of changes to the program Stricter work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, approved as part of President Donald Trump’s tax and …
Two military sites earmarked as asylum seeker accommodation Hundreds of asylum seekers could be housed in two military sites in Inverness and East Sussex as the government seeks to end the use of hotels. Discussions are under way over the use of the sites to accommodate 900 men, as first reported in the Times. There …
Something ugly is happening inside America’s car market. The same people who turned chip shortages into record profits are now watching their own credit machine seize up. Automakers kept prices high, banks kept pushing loans longer, and everyone pretended buyers could keep up. Now the math has stopped working. The cracks started in the same …
Tulsi Gabbard just said what no one in Washington has the courage to admit — Obama’s entire Russia narrative was a lie from the very beginning.
This was their plan all along. They’re about to push it over the line. This is tryanny if this becomes normal. Original post: https://x.com/RealCarlVernon/status/1980292056418566477?t=zwzbxDURfZHIBlgfQas05A&s=19 There will be nowhere to run too when the entire world runs on a carbon footprint and digital gulag system! h/t UniversalSurvivalist
This week on Friday the CPI data report is expected to be released!
Get ready folks. Socialism is next in DC because capitalism has failed the younger generations and they also feel like both parties have failed them. Expect to see a bunch of socialist “Mamdani’s” winning elections in 2028 all over the country. https://t.co/TW8TiCR75V — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 19, 2025 According to a September 2025 Rasmussen/Heartland …
The next 72 hours is going to be an absolute bloodbath for crypto. If you are LEVERAGED LONG you will get liquidated. AVOID PERPS. The money printers WILL NOT GO ON until after a major event. I’m calling for BLACK MONDAY for US stocks. If you’re in spot, HODL. If you’re in cash, be patient. …
$VIX there will be news And VIX will see 28 Something nasty is coming 🩸$SPY $QQQ — 👁 (@Oculustrade) October 16, 2025 Premarket futures are up and trading green, but with the $VIX still above 20, this rally can’t be fully trusted. Our OptionEdge AI's Quant indicators have flipped to Neutral from Buy on $SPY, …
U.S. senators are willing to grant President Trump the authority to put up to 500% tariffs on China for the purchase of Russian oil” – Scott Bessent
