Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
ABF was supposed to be the safe part of private credit. Downside protected. Self-liquidating. Diversified. Turns out "collateral-backed" only works if the collateral is worth something. So much for the safe stuff. pic.twitter.com/oWQvoIHXIZ — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) January 26, 2026 April is about perfect for a crisis to have max midterm impact. Ed, do you notice …
The collapsing collateral pyramid: When MBS replaces Treasuries in repo, the system is running out of AAA ammunition. This is exactly how the shadow collateral system breaks: •Treasuries = pristine •MBS = haircut-heavy, riskier •Agencies = dead middle •Everything below = nuclear waste If the Fed is now vacuuming up MBS to keep funding markets …
Why to do you think the FED Reverse Repo (aka “cash on the sidelines”) is at ~14bn$ while the FED Repo is now actively tapped? Answer: within the group of banks with access to FED repo there is at least one nobody wants to lend $ to even with collateral My bet? Norinchukin https://t.co/Kt9XXlFMoQ pic.twitter.com/sc2n7tPdHV …
Wall Street’s most powerful bank is walking a tightrope between innovation and instability.By the end of 2025, JPMorgan plans to let institutional clients use Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans—a radical integration of crypto assets into the traditional credit system that comes at a moment when the financial foundation beneath that system is starting …
JPMorgan Chase is getting ready to lend against crypto. That is confirmed. The bank is now developing loan products backed by client-held Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Financial Times reported the move on July 22. A rollout could start next year. The irony is hard to ignore. Jamie Dimon once called Bitcoin “a fraud.” Now his …
JPY moves are a strong sign Margin Calls keep hitting levered traders, collateral is being seized, but this time around clearly not dumped in the open market (maybe not dumped at all). The more banks and brokers are stuffed with illiquid assets the closer we get to a BTFP2.0 https://t.co/iGDIJBFNeA pic.twitter.com/p4c4JzZuef — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) …
The Japanese 10-yr JGB traded this morning at 1.14% – the highest yield since July 2011. This should keep rising along with the US treasury 10-yr – which will likely breach 5% in the coming weeks. The Japanese 10-yr JGB traded this morning at 1.14% – the highest yield since July 2011. This should keep …
Michael Saylor is freaking out right now because when Bitcoin drops, non-recourse lenders are entitled to the collateral (Bitcoin). In this case, unless Saylor was able to massively dilute his shares to raise capital the lenders would simply take all of $MSTR's Bitcoin. https://t.co/d5Te7WktJZ pic.twitter.com/44WSSPgdSe — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 25, 2024 Yeah he's lying. Non-recourse …
#recession … #CentralBanks Pushing on a String edition https://t.co/xkicXfqREG — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) March 21, 2024 Waaait what?! What did the Swiss Central Bank just say?! 😳 ⚠️ SNB'S SCHLEGEL: BANKS NEED TO PREPARE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MORE COLLATERAL 🚨 Emmhhh smells like problems… 👇🏻 https://t.co/gt8wMBnERI — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) March 21, 2024 #JustDarioDaily – The …
How about that “strong” retail sales data… pic.twitter.com/kzrjb4ZvdI — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 14, 2023 I mean, what are they going to do? Repossess the empty bag of Doritos you ate months ago? As far as subprime loans go, these are the worst possible imaginable ones for banks. What’s the collateral? At least in 2008 …
As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
🚨 This is How Global Collateral Markets are Starting to Freeze Right Now.🚨 https://t.co/KslI7M4UA3 pic.twitter.com/5ZnpfCvhuJ — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) October 12, 2023 Huge divergence. Looking like a US Treasury or bond bear market similar to 1940s or 1970s like @LynAldenContact @LukeGromen & Tavi have been predicting for awhile. 10 year US Treasury is the …
Some solid evidence that a potential energy crisis is driving collateral problems. This week when oil prices were routed, some of the collateral pressure abated: swap spreads decompressed as WTI retreated. pic.twitter.com/AOWyjKyN3O — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) October 7, 2023 Collateral concerns keep popping up though mostly among the offshore participants. Japanese bills, Italian spreads. …
via Jeffrey P. Snider Euro$ Collateral System is flashing red alarms, and it’s time to pay attention. Japanese govt bills are the epicenter, but this issue runs deeper. Brace yourself, because the global collateral system, which is vital for the financial world, is sputtering. Collateral isn’t just about USTs;; it’s about a complex web of …
Sounds right until it isn't! Problem is that the faster bonds sell off the greater collateral hit and impairment to Global #liquidity https://t.co/6GW0EYopoj — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) September 26, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#Leverage 📉 #MarginCall 📈 https://t.co/nig1oqQvQ8 pic.twitter.com/FmkeTm30lS — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) September 26, 2023 #recession … Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition$DXY …
The significant decline in the market value of Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, which make up over 80% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could potentially reduce the Fed’s assets by about $1 trillion, surpassing the impact of their QT policy. This would essentially bring their balance sheet back to 2020 levels, indicating the …
The bearish curve steepening we feared is fast becoming reality. The impact on risk assets occurs less through the textbook arbitrage channel and more via negative effect on collateral and hence on #liquidity @au_shareplicity @johnauthers https://t.co/VuMvsqnJQ4 — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) August 14, 2023 It's not the height of rates that destroys the economy but …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Table 1 (PDF) | Table 2 (PDF) | Charts (PDF) Wut Mean?: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending: Banks tightened standards for C&I loans to businesses of all sizes. All loan terms for C&I loans, like rate spreads, premiums on riskier loans, credit line costs, and many others, were tightened. Both large and other banks tightened C&I lending …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.fdic.gov/news/financial-institution-letters/2023/fil23037.html The FDIC observed that some insured depository institutions (IDIs) are not reporting estimated uninsured deposits in accordance with the instructions to the Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report). For example, some institutions incorrectly reduced the amount reported to the extent that the uninsured deposits are collateralized by pledged assets; …