Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Germany’s far-right AfD party is exploding in popularity and just hit record highs around 28% in the polls. They openly want a full EU exit with a Brexit-style referendum if they win power. More and more Germans are joining the AfD, which means growing support for leaving the EU. While a clear majority still wants …
Median U.S. gas price jumped 20c/gal overnight with all the price jumps happening in the Midwest, now stands at $3.69/gal. Most common price also $3.69/gal, while second most common price is $3.99/gal. — Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 18, 2026 The national average price of gasoline in the US continues to climb toward $4/gal- $3.86 …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Four people were killed Friday in southern Michigan as powerful storms that produced at least one tornado reduced homes to rubble, sent parts of roofs flying into the air and left a trail of debris hanging from power lines.https://t.co/EB3yrk3eX0 — Chicago Tribune (@chicagotribune) March 7, 2026 At least eight people have been killed after a …
U.S. crude oil broke $90 per barrel Friday after President Donald Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged war that will cause a cascading disruption to global oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate futures were last up 11.27% to $90.14 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was 8.09% higher at $92.32. U.S. …
Pres. Trump’s disapproval rating has reached 55%. That's up from 43% when he was inaugurated on January 20th, 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFFS, CONTINUED INFLATION, & GREENLAND ADVENTURISM ARE GOING OVER LIKE A LEAD BALLOON.https://t.co/0NLAH6U7L0 pic.twitter.com/jQ9cOCpikN — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) January 25, 2026 Ken Griffin: 'Unfortunately, the most recent research indicates the tax been borne by both …
A $1.25 billion Powerball jackpot could provide someone with plenty of spending money just nine days before Christmas. The next chance to win will be during Wednesday’s drawing. The jackpot rolled on Monday after no ticket matched all six numbers drawn — white balls 23, 35, 59, 63, 68 and red Powerball 2. The Power …
VIX +10%, QQQ +4%, market bubble like nothing seen before. Never seen $VIX climb +10% over a 10-day stretch while $QQQ climbed 4% at the same time. Divergences like this might pop up for a day or two, but not for this long and not into new ATHs. Today feels like the biggest bubble I’ve …
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
They hit $1 billion. But the multiple still demands miracles. Palantir posted second-quarter revenue of $1 billion, up 48% from last year. Earnings per share came in at $0.16, beating consensus by $0.02. U.S. commercial nearly doubled to $306 million. Government contracts jumped 53% to $426 million. Total contract value surged 140% to $2.27 billion. …
Germany’s unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in a decade, reflecting the deepening struggles of Europe’s largest economy. The latest data from the Federal Employment Agency confirms that 2.96 million Germans are now unemployed, marking an increase of 34,000 in May alone. This is not just another slow month for the job market. …
Serious Credit Card Delinquencies rise to 12.31%, the highest level since 2011 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/KPm8CIdS04 — Barchart (@Barchart) May 15, 2025 Credit card delinquencies have surged to 12.31%, marking the highest level since 2011. The latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York paints a troubling picture of consumer debt, with households struggling under …
📈 Diverging Trade Paths: U.S. Deficit Hits $1.4 Trillion as China’s Surplus Climbs to $1.1 Trillion (LTM Q1 2025) byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics In the twelve months ending March 2025, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $1.4 trillion, a 30.3% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus rose 30.9% to $1.08 trillion. Since the onset …
The paper is verbose (155 pages) and not riveting reading, but it does include everything I know about equity risk premiums and their estimation. My first update was written in 2009, during the financial crisis, and I have updated it annually since. https://t.co/wZcZy5Az5C pic.twitter.com/dFUA7sbVNr — Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) March 30, 2024 The standard approach to …
US CPI MOM ACTUAL 0.4% as well as core 0.4% annualized is 4.8% No where near 2% As the Fed has failed to get inflation back to “normal” for 3 years now Americans are the ones that pay the price literally! pic.twitter.com/1ptVRB0bkF — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) March 12, 2024 The latest Consumer Price Index …
by confoundedinterest17 Fire! Yes, Biden and Congress created a fire with it reckless Federal spending leading in 40-year highs inflation, prompting The Fed to counterattack with rapid rate hikes. We now see the 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%. And the REAL 10-year Treasury yield passing 2.46%. And Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate survey is at 7.63%, …