US LEI down 14.7%, CFNAI-GDP divergence hints at recession; Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index contracts.
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing sector, building permits, S&P 500, and bonds. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), designed to …