Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael How does it feel to be living on the edge of a bubble just before it bursts? Ever since the days of the Great Recession, our leaders have been going to extremes that we have never seen before as they attempt to keep our failing economy propped up. The Federal Reserve has created …
Alphabet’s earnings call revealed a possible delay in Gen AI adoption, and a possible Gen AI capex overinvestment. Thus, the Alphabet earnings report potentially triggered the Gen AI bubble burst. The S&P 500 could drop by over 50% if the Gen AI bubble burst is followed by a recession, which is what happened during the 2000 …
1) Meanwhile – builder inventory in Northeast/Midwest is lagging far behind the previous mid-2000s peak. Here's the comparison between regions in homes for sale v 2006. South: +1% higher than 2006 bubbleWest: -18% lowerMidwest: -62% lowerNortheast: -51% lower — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) July 25, 2024 3) I get asked a lot by reporters if this …
At the height of the dotcom bubble, Cisco was worth 5.5% of US GDP. Today market cap of Nvidia is worth 11.7% of GDP, over 200% higher… byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
Europe roasts in deadly 44C ‘African bubble’: Brutal heatwave settles over continent with red alerts in drought-hit Italy, raging wildfires in Greece and health warnings for tourists on Spanish holiday islands Southern Europe continues to roast in ferocious heat, with scorching and dry conditions fanning wildfires in Greece and around the Balkans and seeing red …
by jessefelder After Sequoia recently suggested that the “AI Bubble Is Reaching A Tipping Point,” Goldman Sachs came out and made a similar point. Tech blogger Ed Zitron took it a step further, concluding “Generative AI is decidedly not the future.” Famed tech investor Roger McNamee went so far as to say that, “More evidence …
Bulls, when this explodes, don't tell anyone that you bet your life savings on the "Magnificent Seven" in an artificial intelligence bubble. They'll treat you like Joe Biden for the rest of time. pic.twitter.com/zIUD5EAGHl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 12, 2024 Barron's today:"Rate Cuts Look Imminent"https://t.co/sSVMrTbplY"It was the Magnificent 7 that drove Thursday’s declines in the …
JUST IN 🚨: Warren Buffett Indicator hits 195%, the highest level in history, surpassing the Dot Com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2022 Bear Market pic.twitter.com/SAE5MbHTlY — Barchart (@Barchart) July 9, 2024 The Warren Buffett Indicator, a metric favored by the legendary investor Warren Buffett, has surged to a record high of 195%. …
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.1% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 5th, inventory was at 653 thousand (7-day average), compared to 646 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far …
via jessefelder It is far easier and more lucrative to hype “the future” than it is to actually build it. And there is now a record amount of hype built into the valuations of the biggest stocks in the market. Meanwhile, the failure of the rest of the stock market to keep pace has led …
https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1808686814741606665
by Confident-Country123 Nvda market cap of $3.2T 2008 crash led to losses of $2T. The financial crisis happened because: a large loss in asset valuation high leverage and derivative positions multiplied this loss into something way bigger every major bank in the country was holding these assets on its balance sheet banking system instability starts …
Gravity is unrelenting and inevitably prevails. The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is now nearly as high as it was at the peak of the Tech Bubble. It's understandable that during periods of euphoria, less experienced investors might claim that valuations are irrelevant. I… pic.twitter.com/wxuM2GcZ5T — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 20, 2024 …
In the 1990s, Japan’s massive real estate bubble popped and it still hasn’t recovered. It’s known as one of the largest real estate bubbles ever. Canada is the orange line. It’s literally twice as big. pic.twitter.com/2H15JVeN3K — red pill rick (@igetredpilled) June 12, 2024 Japan’s Real Estate Bubble (1986-1991): The Japanese asset price bubble occurred from 1986 …
Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia (5 largest stocks) COMBINED now account for a record 27% share of the S&P 500. This is up from ~19% in just 2 years. In 2015, the percentage of 5 largest stocks was just 11%. It is 9 percentage points higher than in Dot-com bubble. pic.twitter.com/ywNf927cWE — Global Markets …
The gold rush of central banks. Today’s Michael Lewis “Big Short” opportunity is rather the ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies relative to real assets with limited supply, which are imperative to society either as commodities or sound money. pic.twitter.com/t6JZMmbAmm — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 1, 2024 I've been asked for years, "What is going …
The S&P 500 risk premium is nearing zero for the first time since 2002. pic.twitter.com/WiDJTA6TqT — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 29, 2024 Chart for future history books. Dotcom bubble looks really cute. Ht @Todd_Sohn pic.twitter.com/QTBiZXVues — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) May 29, 2024
According to the Q ratio, developed by James Tobin who won the Nobel prize for it, equities with a current Q ratio of 1.90 are overvalued by 156% to the long term mean (Q ratio 0.74) making it the first time to be overvalued by 3 std dev, the greatest amount ever. 2/2 pic.twitter.com/N4A05W1g4u — …
The once lucrative Medicare Advantage business, which has been a significant profit driver for health-insurance giants, is experiencing a decline in profitability due to policy changes and increased medical costs. Key points: Medicare Advantage, a program where the government pays insurers to manage seniors’ care, has seen a drop in profitability due to policy …
This is exactly what should happen. The interesting thing is no one believes it will happen. Which means it probably will happen, but after a little more to suck more in. The incredible lack of volume lately would agree with this. — Minsky Moment Mark (@markpainter17) May 13, 2024 GameStop soars in meme stock flashback …
by ComputerTrashbag Inventory in almost all major areas is extremely high now. Bubble hotspots like Austin, Boise, Phoenix, Asheville, Jacksonville, Las Vegas etc etc haven’t seen much price reduction even though inventory has returned to pre pandemic levels. Inventory is sitting for months. Why? Because there is no active suffering. There is no current pain …
BREAKING: Stanley Druckenmiller sold 30% of his Nvidia stake. Says he could see A.I. stocks dropping 80% like 2000. https://t.co/NVNP8E6PJS pic.twitter.com/bvPEOC01Fu — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 8, 2024 BARRON’S Nvidia Stock Slips. Why AI Chip Plays Are Having a Tougher Time.
by MonkeyLover03 I feel like everything points to a bubble, even the graphs at this point. Unemployment is going up, layoffs are happening more and are planned if you go to warntracker.com. Why are some people still saying this isn’t a bubble? Having been through a few cycles, consensus building towards the current state …
Chinese home prices are plummeting at an alarming rate, surpassing the decline seen during Japan’s infamous bubble burst. With a lack of transparency, the full extent of the crisis remains uncertain, but indicators suggest it could be ten times worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Residential real estate volumes have dropped by a staggering 46% …
You’ve heard of Florida Man, but that may be no match for Florida bubble. Consider a new study from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University researchers in South Florida. They found the average home in the region is nearly 35% overvalued relative to its long-term pricing costs, and they’re sounding the alarm. “This trend …
by Stephen Green Elon Musk issues brutal email to Tesla staff as he goes ‘absolutely hardcore’ and fires two senior executives, his entire Supercharger team, and moves to lay off hundreds more employees. The Tesla boss, who sat down with Chinese premier Li Qiang on Sunday promising an imminent roll-out of driverless cars in the …
The current stock market bubble has been persistent over time but it is showing the first signs of cracking. No stock market crash in sight, but the fundamentals are clear – it is about when. But then of course, no stock market crash for a decade can also be possible. I predict that all of …
Anyone doubting that China is well on its way to a Japanese-style lost economic decade has apparently missed the bursting of its massive housing and credit market bubble and the souring of U.S. and European trade relations with that country. And if China, the world’s second largest economy, were to fall, it would constitute a …
The current state of the market reveals concerning trends, as the Dow struggles to maintain upward momentum, with each rally attempt met by afternoon declines. This pattern, coupled with the VIX’s significantly lower level compared to previous market peaks, suggests a market environment characterized by extreme complacency. Such conditions, reminiscent of periods preceding market crashes, …
