Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael I have got some really crazy stuff to share with you in this article. For more than a decade and a half, I have been writing about the decline of our society. Sadly, over that period of time there has been an inexorable deterioration of our culture. We no longer agree on a …
By weaponizing the USD and SWIFT and terrorizing banks all over the world he is just accelerating the demise of the US dollar as reserve currency. He made his money, with George Soros, destroying the Japanese Yen and then the British Pound. Is the US dollar his next victim? — Ignatius van Zyl (@naasvzyl) April …
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging: Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years. Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year. At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest …
Gold is exploding to new all-time highs. The media is finally paying attention. But ask yourself: is it too late to buy gold? Or are we just seeing the beginning of something far more seismic? Is the new bull market in gold and silver just getting started? In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down …
The math is brutal, and yet no one is screaming it from the rooftops. Ninety-seven percent of all stocks are held by the top 10 percent of Americans. Half of all equities are concentrated in the hands of the top 1 percent. That leaves the bottom 90 percent with three percent, and if you do …
A mortgage buydown is a financing technique where upfront fees (paid by the buyer, seller, or builder) lower the interest rate on a home loan, either temporarily (e.g., 2-1 buydown: 2% reduction year 1, 1% year 2) or permanently via discount points. It reduces initial monthly payments but they may rise later. Often used by …
China’s real estate crash spirals: Builders fail, buyers flee, cities hollow out. Turns out concrete isn’t a liquid asset after all. “New home prices in 70 major cities fell for a 24th straight month in May, extending the longest losing streak since at least 2011” https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-home-prices-dip-may-extending-two-year-stagnation-2025-06-16 “The amount of unsold residential floor space stood at …
Nobody wants buy gov. Debt. Central bank holdings of government debt: • 🇯🇵 Japan: Over 50% of all outstanding government debt • 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Approaching 50% of the outstanding debt • 🇪🇺 Eurozone: Nearly one-third of outstanding sovereign bonds • 🇺🇸 United States: Around one-quarter of all… — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) July 27, …
Housing market and economic analyst, Amy Nixon, says that America is trapped in a demographic nightmare that could crash home prices and the economy, but will the ICE deportations make the crash even worse?
New home prices are fairing much worse when measured by Fed rate cycles than they were during the 2004-2009 Fed rate timeline. New Memo in comments. pic.twitter.com/Za3K6Q7dys — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) June 7, 2025 “Housing IS the business cycle” – Edward E. Leamer pic.twitter.com/ADAw5zYC5S — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 7, 2025
According to Goldman Sachs, inflation is about to imminently take off and not stop accelerating until June 2026. I’m sure this will sell very well heading into the midterms. pic.twitter.com/8Q8EI2rrPe — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 7, 2025
China’s yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Not a good day in India to start the week. The …
BREAKING: #Bitcoin tumbles under 94K. pic.twitter.com/sn0IuI52Qv — Jacob King (@JacobKinge) December 27, 2024 They need liquidity 😈 — TrippyMike (@TrippyMike_TC) December 27, 2024 The market woke up and realized rates are high, liquidity is drying up and Powell is still serious about not cutting as much as what is desired. NASDAQ down over 2% S&P …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
Druckenmiller recently announced at a conference that he is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds, and these bets now account for 15% to 20% of his portfolio. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/20/does-stanley-druckenmiller-know-something-wall-str/ ✅Market optimism on inflation is ‘misleading’ byu/Fun_Balance_1809 inu_Fun_Balance_1809 Inflation is not dead, it’s just resting LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Over the past three years inflation has gone …
The real issue is oil prices in Yen, not just the Yen itself. The situation is far from over. — Ashok Mishra ⭐ 🇮🇳 (@ashok0220) August 26, 2024
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Did wages rise 10-fold to match the 10-fold rise in the cost of a modest house? No. That is social recession in a nutshell. A reader asked about the term social recession which he’d noted in my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. Here is …
Americans can't afford kids. We are broke. Illegals are getting free medical, housing,snap benefits, and cash assistance. We get nothing but debt. pic.twitter.com/2vt6y2paHg — Sassafrass84 (@Sassafrass_84) August 8, 2024 This trend is driven by factors such as lower fertility rates, especially in countries like Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe. The implications of this …
Of course Julian Emanuel (Sr Director of Derivatives) wants everyone to stay fully invested. He fails to explain derivatives speculation in small caps while mega caps sell off is always how the market finishes the economic cycle right before collapse.https://t.co/C0RiBmR3J6 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 31, 2024 I'm shocked people think rates will go down instead …
Russia’s central bank raised its key interest to 18 percent on Friday, the sixth hike in just over a year as it seeks to tame soaring price rises. Prices have risen fast since Moscow launched its full-scale offensive in Ukraine in February 2022, as massive government spending and skyrocketing wages have pushed up demand across …
Can someone explain how fiscal deficits in Europe will be reduced as we go forward given accelerating deindustrialization and upcoming pensions and healthcare entitlements demographics crisis in Germany, Italy and Spain? pic.twitter.com/ZTpb3ctJbG — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 4, 2024 pic.twitter.com/Mpxprzyo1T — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 4, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 Will The Fed keep on printing?? Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, traders are eyeing this morning’s Producer Prices for any hints that the disinflation trend will return…or not. The answer is “not!” April Producer Prices rose 0.5% MoM (vs +0.3% exp), with March’s +0.2% MoM revised down to -0.1% MoM. The downward revision did not …
It’s almost as though you can’t trust the media 🤔 https://t.co/NwN2PwkE4F — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 7, 2024 If Tucker Carlson interviewing Putin is all it takes for Russia to win the war, then journalism is completely screwed because it just exposes to the world how the media has been lying to the public about …
This pic was taken on January 3. Which is now 1/5 a trillion dollars in one month. Correct me if im wrong but it was a whole trillion dollars added in 2023. h/t quangberry-jr
Oh boy. Global freight rate for containers just surged 61% this week. Not the time to celebrate the end of inflation. A second wave is likely underway. H/t @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/X9K2DZJDWR — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 5, 2024 The global freight rate for containers has surged by a staggering 61% this week, casting a shadow …
Miss the 10Y3M inversion chart updates with SPX and continuing claims. — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) December 22, 2023 “Unrealized Losses” on Bonds Held by Banks pic.twitter.com/LpXMRVmDyO — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 9, 2023 Yesterday was the first NYSE 90% down volume day since the March bank run. Only the second one of 2023. Any …
by Chris Black This is an absolute catastrophe. Ireland is a small country. The Irish are being wiped out in their own homeland, and this is happening without much of a peep. Gript: Over 40% of the population increase in the Irish state since 2005 has been the consequence of net migration of people born …
And German electricity generation is down by over 10% in the year to end-Oct. Wind and solar not adding much either. pic.twitter.com/YrZQGIBnyY — Daniel Kral (@DanielKral1) November 3, 2023
The Bear Market never ended. The end of this bear market rally is rapidly approaching……. https://t.co/kf0JCvL7XA — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 5, 2023 G, we already there… Long-duration US TSY bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during the GFC in 2008-2009 The drawdown in Vanguard Ext Duration Treasury ETF …
Amid China’s recession, local governments across the country have been amassing significant debt. Since last year, there have been ongoing reports of salary cuts for civil servants in various regions. Now, local government debt has gotten out of control, with many even defaulting on their obligations. Starting from August 18, the Chinese Communist Party’s official …