Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“December alone accounted for nearly 20% of the entire annual decline. At the same time, sales remain below 2019 levels despite population growth, while new listings are near multi-year highs even in December. That combination usually means prices haven’t finished adjusting yet.” h/t Key_Brief_8138
So, inflation hasn't returned to target when policy is "restrictive", but cutting rates will bring it back to target. Explains why 5-year CPI swaps are about to break loose. pic.twitter.com/a0UrLFVwhz — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) July 16, 2025 We elect politicians to do one thing: vote on things to spend money on shit we care …
US 5-Year Note Auction High Yield 4.071% (stop through 0.4 BPS)Bid-to-Cover 2.39Sells $70 blnAwards 23.12% of bids at highPrimary dealers take 9.24%Direct 12.39%Indirect 78.37% — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) May 28, 2025 US sells $70B in 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.071%, slightly below the 4.075% when-issued level. Strong international demand with 78.4% going to …
Bond shockwave slamming global markets: Japan 20-Yr Bond Sale Draws Weakest Demand Ratio Since Dec 2023 Oversubscription rate for a 5-year German debt sale lowest since March 2023. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2025 Japan 30-year bond yields spike signaling shift in global bond stability and risk… Japan’s 30-year bond yield just spiked to 2.798%, …
"Tariffs are not inflationary" 5-year breakeven rate just surged to its highest level in nearly 2 years. pic.twitter.com/J6KIAhpiY1 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) February 3, 2025 Trump is upset that Europeans aren't buying enough U.S. products. But Americans aren't buying enough U.S. products either; that's why we had a record $1.2 trillion trade deficit in …
(The Center Square) – Crime is up in Chicago despite city-wide efforts – and more than $180 million – to reduce violence through a series of programs. Republican state Rep. John Cabello said Chicago’s rising crime rate amounts to an indictment of the state’s present legal system and all its recent changes. New data shows …
JUST IN: #Bitcoin surpasses silver to become the 8th largest asset in the world. — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) March 11, 2024 Hedge Fund equity long exposure is at 5-year highs according to Goldman Sachs 👀 pic.twitter.com/4DG9YVzjMq — Barchart (@Barchart) March 11, 2024
https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1736936139418661091 Chinese equities hit 5-year low as doubts grow about decades of stunning growth. Post-COVID recovery disappoints, challenging Beijing to choose between more debt or slower growth in 2024 and beyond. Contrary to expectations, consumers save, foreign investment declines, factories struggle, and property markets face instability, raising concerns about China’s growth model. Some economists draw …
This is Adam Vena. He has lost custody of his son in California, because the mother decided the boy was really a girl. At the age of 2. Adam spoke out against this, and the authorities consider that abuse. He now has a 5-year restraining order forbidding him from talking to his… pic.twitter.com/VrzGZeKNzr — Billboard …
The decline in holiday hiring to the lowest level in about five years, with only 135,000 hires, reflects shifting consumer behavior. Black Friday, once a bustling shopping event, appeared subdued this year, and retailers face challenges amid changing trends. TD Cowen lowered its U.S. holiday spending estimate due to flat Black Friday traffic, and early …
The funniest thing about AI is that if it will automate most office workers, who will Microsoft sell Office licenses to then? 🙂 h/t ChampionshipUsed9855