Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted yield curve, typically indicates imminent recession within 6 months. It has successfully predicted every US …
Reverse repo surges $72BN to $268.7BN for year-end window dressing. Funding market spreads already had blown out to 3 month highs amid spike in repo tightness pic.twitter.com/wyBoMBEPN8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2024 The Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program dropped to $5 billion this week. It'll be $0 in January. pic.twitter.com/md8wCxDkVv — Financelot …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 19, 2024
🇺🇸 S&P 500 and equal-weight S&P 500 3-month rolling correlation. At historic lows! Chart: @t1alpha pic.twitter.com/szTRHIBpDj — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) May 16, 2024 The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large companies in the U.S. The equal-weight S&P 500 is similar, but each company is given the same …
We were higher now we are lower lol pic.twitter.com/2RCUYU1tLT — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) August 29, 2023 Over the last 3 months, 2.55 million job openings have been filled. This is by far the largest 3-month decline in JOLTS on record. Despite an incredibly challenging economic situation, the job market remains strong. The Fed will …
USD has just closed its lowest weekly candle since April 2022 With the break of key support and a bearish MACD cross, downward momentum looks dominant pic.twitter.com/Y7OhawkHjX — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 18, 2023 2-year Treasury yield and USD have significantly diverged Signaling that the Fed has mattered less to the Dollar in 2023 pic.twitter.com/CFsDKmAvYv …