Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 The good news? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is normalizing to January 2022 levels. One the mortgage side, adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) share is the highest since the financial crisis (2008). As Trump continues to stand up for Americans and China (and Democrats) continues to fight, the S&P 500 index lags MSCI …
by confoundedinterest17 Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork. Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than usual suggesting a larger than …
This means that the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is higher than that on the 10-year Treasury bond, which is unusual and often seen as a predictor of economic recession. An extended yield curve inversion suggests that investors expect slower economic growth and potentially lower interest rates in the future, indicating a lack of …
by DesmondMilesDant Historically, a bull steepener with the short end of the curve dropping is what typically correlates with bear markets. A bear steepening of the yield curve with LTTs selling off indicates the bond market thinks the economy is running strong (or at least stronger than what was previously thought), which in a roundabout …
by confoundedinterest17 Maui Joe Biden received a lot of help from his friends at The Federal Reserve! Thanks to the crippling effects of Bidenomics (Fed easing then tightening to combat inflation caused by insane green spending and a war in Ukraine), US mortgage rates (conforming 30-year) has increased 159%. On the yield curve side, the …
by confoundedinterest17 We are back in the USSR! And the economy taking commands from Washington DC! Introduction During the COVID-19 pandemic the occurrence of remote work jumped, out of sheer necessity. The technology was already available, but the pandemic accelerated its adoption and bypassed the hesitation of employers to allow people working from home. In many cases, …
by confoundedinterest17 Will this be the last time for a Fed rate hike? Today, The Fed raised their target rate to 5.50%, up 525 basis points from 0.25% on 3/15/2022. That is one big rise in rates over a short period of time. Will they stop with one rate hike? If The Fed Funds Futures …
by confoundedinterest17 Jared Bernstein was VP Joe Biden’s former Chief Economist and is now chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. Pretty impressive! Except that Bernstein is not really an economist. He has a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University. In other words, Bernstein is a Progressive Marxist cheerleader, not a real …
by confoundedinterest17 I have never seen anything like this. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is deep in inversion and has had a negative slope for 265 straight days. Bidenomics is born under a bad sign! On the commodities front, heating oil is up almost 2% this morning and nickel (an important element in Biden’s green …
by confoundedinterest17 I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is printin’ the night away! Yes, as The Fed printin’ the night away, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is still inverted, but at -86.616 basis points. The 2 year US Treasury yield is down -8.2 BPS, the largest decline in the world … after Greece! Greece? The fiscal wreck …
by confoundedinterest17 Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov. First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, Resident Biden, our bumbling, corrupt “leader” said “We created more new jobs in two years than any president did in their entire term.” Of course, like almost everything that comes out of Biden’s mouth was a lie. Actually, the US economy added 12.53 million jobs after April 2020 (Trump) while Bidenomics created …