State unemployment data, more nuanced than national, triggers Mel Rule, signaling recession likelihood.

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The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more over a three-month period, it signals a likely recession. The idea behind this approach is to capture localized economic trends more accurately. While the national unemployment rate provides a broader perspective, state-level data can reveal nuances and variations within individual states.

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