Sounds potentially like a forecast for a global GDP ungrowth of -7% next year. That’s pretty unpretty.

IMF warns that fragmentation in the global economy and clear shifts in underlying bilateral trade could trigger a “new Cold War”

The International Monetary Fund’s No. 2 official on Monday warned that fragmentation in the global economy and clear shifts in underlying bilateral trade could trigger a “new Cold War” given the conflict in Ukraine and U.S.-China tensions.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath told the International Economic Association in Medellin, Colombia, that losses could reach 2.5% to 7% of global gross domestic product if the world economy fragmented into two blocs, seen as predominantly the U.S. and Europe in the West and China and Russia in the East.

“While there are no signs of broad-based retreat from globalization, fault lines are emerging as geoeconomic fragmentation is increasingly a reality,” she said. “If fragmentation deepens, we could find ourselves in a new Cold War.”

"Such fragmentation has potential serious consequences that could outweigh greater domestic economic resiliency and security, Gopinath said…"

Source: t.co/4fx3oMnWwn.

— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) December 11, 2023

h/t mark000