In recent years, the landscape of corporate bankruptcies has shifted dramatically. Companies are increasingly using the courts and private deals to avoid the public declaration of bankruptcy, a trend that has significant implications for the economy. This practice is skewing the perception of economic health, masking the true extent of financial distress among businesses.
The year 2024 saw a record number of corporate bankruptcies, with nearly 700 firms filing for bankruptcy, the highest number since the Great Recession. This surge was driven by a combination of high interest rates, rising debt levels, and inflationary pressures. Notable companies like Spirit Airlines, Big Lots, and Red Lobster were among those that sought bankruptcy protection.
However, many companies are now opting for private deals and court-mediated settlements to manage their financial woes. This approach allows them to restructure their debts and continue operations without the stigma of a public bankruptcy declaration. For instance, Joann Fabrics managed to navigate its financial troubles through a pre-packaged bankruptcy deal, avoiding mass closures and preserving jobs.
This trend of avoiding public bankruptcy declarations is concerning because it obscures the true state of the economy. By not publicly declaring bankruptcy, companies can maintain a facade of stability, which can mislead investors, creditors, and the public. This practice has become so prevalent that it has led to a significant underreporting of financial distress in the corporate sector.
Moreover, the positioning of small-cap stocks has fallen to historical lows, reflecting the broader economic challenges. Small-cap companies, which are typically more vulnerable to economic fluctuations, have been hit hard by the current economic climate. The outlook for small-cap stocks in 2025 remains uncertain, with many analysts predicting continued volatility.
In conclusion, the use of private deals and court-mediated settlements to avoid public bankruptcy declarations is distorting the true picture of economic health. This practice is hiding the pain and creating a false sense of stability. As we move forward, it is crucial to address this issue and ensure greater transparency in corporate financial reporting.
We’re seeing the same stuff in commercial real estate.
Borrowers can’t make payments and banks don’t foreclose and instead renegotiate the terms of the loan to avoid having to take the loss.
This helps no one of course but it allows for more successful can kicking.
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 16, 2025
Exactly. This can only go on for so long. We saw the same tricks in 2007.
We are much better at it today. Banks have learned how to play “hide the sausage” much more effectively but the result will eventually be the same
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 16, 2025
Sources:
https://www.marketplace.org/2025/01/09/2024-was-a-record-year-for-bankruptcies-why/
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bankruptcies-closures-and-fraud-key-trucking-stories-in-2024
https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/01/06/u-s-bankruptcy-filings-jumped-in-2024/
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bankruptcies-were-significant-2024-here-some-biggest
Small-cap positioning has fallen to historical lows pic.twitter.com/9MsadqECap
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) January 16, 2025
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