I now predict something that is not priced into ANY Wall Street earnings model:
A secular Tech recession.
I base this on the fact that the Cloud outsourcing bubble that began during the pandemic is now four years old and encompasses the last manic AI melt-up phase. Which will… pic.twitter.com/8Bbv8hmzj9
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 13, 2024
US equity valuations have been and are still higher than the macro backdrop would normally suggest
Goldman pic.twitter.com/HjCXI1qnRC
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 13, 2024
S&P500 realized volatility has risen sharply in recent days
Goldman pic.twitter.com/aSnNeFHxjO
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 13, 2024
Goldman Sachs now pricing in a 41% chance of a U.S. Recession
This is up from just 29% back in April pic.twitter.com/Qzpkdyfm4k
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 13, 2024
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