“Seasonal adjustments are like food additives: cheap shortcuts intended to make the data prettier and more attractive to consume for folks who aren’t chefs meanwhile providing zero nutritional value.”
“Seasonal adjustments are like food additives: cheap shortcuts intended to make the data prettier and more attractive to consume for folks who aren’t chefs meanwhile providing zero nutritional value.”
The ADP employment data that dropped this morning is the… pic.twitter.com/hNvZ4nWcJb
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) October 2, 2024
Agencies (BLS), businesses, etc. have been seasonally adjusting data forever. They say it’s to smooth out data and tell the story better, but with data with large sample sizes it’s unnecessary. Summer is peak hiring season, so the unadjusted ADP data tells the real story.
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) October 2, 2024