Scrutinizing the Numbers: Skepticism Surrounds November Job Report

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The latest jobs report for November presents a seemingly positive picture of the U.S. economy, with 199,000 jobs added and a dip in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. However, a closer examination reveals reasons for suspicion.

Economists’ expectations were surpassed, but the accuracy of the reported figures is now under scrutiny. Despite mainstream media acclaim, 20% of jobs added in 2023 have been revised away, raising questions about the reliability of the initial data.

Behind the apparent recovery, troubling signs emerge. Labor force participation remains below 2020 levels, and total unemployment stands at 7%, with 11.6 million Americans jobless—marking a 7% increase year over year. Furthermore, 5.3 million Americans have halted their job search, indicating potential underlying issues.

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Analyzing the nonfarm payroll employment, the U.S. trajectory mirrors past recession cycles, especially when considering the months from the first inversion of the 10Y3M Treasury yield curve since 1968 (excluding COVID).

As analysts celebrate the “wonderful” jobs report, a critical perspective urges caution. The revision of previous job additions and discrepancies in key indicators prompt a deeper examination of the true health of the U.S. job market, challenging the narrative of a straightforward recovery.

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Jobs report ‘suggests a bit less recession risk than you might have thought,’ economist says

The November jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 199,000 positions last month, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.7% from 3.9%.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an addition of 190,000 jobs and unemployment staying at 3.9%.