Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk,
Streets are darkened everywhere but Havana.
Cuba Is Struggling to Keep Lights On
Bloomberg reports Cuba Is Struggling to Keep Lights On Amid Trump’s Oil Blockade
Cuba’s blackout problem has worsened in the month since the US cut off oil shipments to the island.
Its grid was fragile even before a critical transmission line failure in early December temporarily severed the link between Havana and the Caribbean country’s primary thermoelectric power plants in Matanzas. Then the Trump administration blocked fuel shipments that supply 60% of the roughly 100,000 barrels of crude a day it needs to feed its aging power system.
Available electricity has plummeted since the start of the year. And it’s disproportionately affected rural areas and provincial hubs, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of satellite imagery. The level of light emitted at night in major eastern cities like Santiago de Cuba and Holguin has dropped as much as 50% compared to the historical average.
Streetlights and residential grids that once illuminated those areas have largely gone dark. Santiago is the island’s second-largest city, home to a once-bustling port and industrial facilities, while Holguin is another provincial capital and a major hub for tourists headed to resorts along the north coast.
The notable exception is Havana. Though the capital’s eastern suburbs of Cojimar and Alamar are significantly darker, the data show the lights have largely stayed on in the central part of the city that is home to a fifth of the communist-run island’s roughly 10 million people.But the disparity in the satellite images of Havana at night versus other cities could also reflect differences in both income and technological adaptation, according to Michael Bustamante, chair of Cuban studies at the University of Miami.
“Given the already precarious circumstances of the electric grid, many Cubans have figured out ways to import solar panels,” he said in an interview. “That’s not a necessarily cheap proposition.”
It stands to reason that Havana, the wealthiest part of the island, would see greater uptake of solar panels, Bustamante said. Battery systems that charge while the electric grid is on, to then power appliances when it’s not, are also commonly used in the capital, he added.
All of Cuba’s Oil Imports Have Halted
The last oil shipment from Mexico arrives in Havana on the Ocean Mariner tanker, on Jan. 9.
In addition to Venezuela, Mexico had been a steady supplier of oil to Cuba. It delivered a small cargo on Jan. 9, according to Kpler, a data and analytics firm. A few weeks later, Trump threatened tariffs on any nation that supplies the island with fuel, cutting off that flow as well. As a result, Havana has now gone a full month without a major fuel delivery, the data show.
Some analysts estimate Cuba has enough oil left in storage to last fewer than 20 days, but no official figures are available. Last week, the government unveiled a series of contingency measures including reducing public transportation routes, shortening the work week to four days, shutting down resorts and limiting gasoline sales to consumers who can pay in dollars.
It’s now a waiting game between Washington and Havana to see who blinks first. Trump argues the regime is so weak it will collapse on its own and is severing all sources of external support to speed the process. Díaz-Canel has indicated he’s open to negotiations with the US, but not about the country’s one-party system of government.
From rural towns to provincial capitals and Havana itself, everyday Cubans are living under increasing duress as a result. While the regime survived the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s through similarly aggressive belt-tightening and stoicism, it could still import fuel to keep the lights on.
Not being able to do so this time, Bustamante said, represents “a very significant blow that will severely strain an already severely strained electric grid.”
Assume Trump manages a regime change in Cuba. Miguel Díaz-Cane is ousted.
What changes? When?
Is the goal for Cuba to buy US oil? Venezuela oil with the US skimming off the top?
Trump should at least tell us what the precise mission is other than regime change nation building.