Strange things happen when history starts repeating itself. The Dow-to-Gold ratio is approaching a level seen only four times before: 1929, 1973, 2020, and now. Each time, an economic downturn followed. Recessions don’t announce themselves with flashing lights. They creep in through patterns that only a few notice before it’s too late.
The credit market is starting to crack. A major ratings agency has raised alarms over 14 issues in private credit, and the first four are enough to send chills down Wall Street. Hidden risks, murky balance sheets, excessive leverage—classic signs of a system running on borrowed time. This isn’t speculation. It’s a warning straight from the institutions that track financial stability.
Goldman Sachs is already forecasting widening credit spreads. IG to 115 basis points. High yield to 400. That kind of move has never been a bullish signal. It tightens financial conditions, raises default risks, and puts earnings under pressure. In plain English, it’s the roadmap to a bear market.
The NAHB Housing Index just broke lower. This isn’t noise. It’s structure breaking down. Historically, housing leads unemployment, and this drop suggests the labor market will follow. The recession isn’t fully here yet, but it’s closing in fast.
Trade numbers reveal a rush to move goods before tariffs hit. January’s data showed front-running in consumer goods and gold, but February added autos to the list. March is expected to be just as chaotic, as businesses scramble ahead of Trump’s planned tariffs. The sectoral tariffs may not drop on April 2, but markets expect them eventually—and they’re reacting accordingly.
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. When the same warning signs flash again and again, it’s not coincidence. It’s the start of something bigger.
Sources:
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1903978426538524782
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1903918057149587734
https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1903901569029980356
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1903912543191495059